Trump Claims US-Iran War 'Very Complete' and Ahead of Schedule

Speaking from his Doral, Florida golf club on Monday, March 9, President Donald Trump offered a remarkably upbeat assessment of the war that has convulsed the Middle East, cratered global stock markets, and sent oil prices to their highest levels since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," Trump told reporters, claiming that Iran "has no navy, no communications, no air force" and that the conflict was running "very far ahead of schedule" [1][2].

Hours later, the Department of Defense posted a message on X that appeared to directly contradict the commander-in-chief: "We have Only Just Begun to Fight" and "no mercy" [1]. The dissonance between the president's victory lap and his own military establishment's messaging captures the deep uncertainty surrounding a conflict now ten days old — one that has already killed more than 1,600 people, displaced millions, and disrupted roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply.

How It Started: February 28 and the Death of Khamenei

The war began in the early hours of February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes — codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" — targeting military and government sites across Iran, including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah [3][4]. The opening salvo achieved what decades of covert operations and diplomatic maneuvering had not: the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose compound was destroyed in the initial wave of strikes [3].

The operation was launched without congressional authorization. Members of Congress were informed after the strikes began, but given no role in approving them [5]. Trump initially estimated the war would take approximately one month to complete — a timeline he now claims to be well ahead of [1].

The stated objectives of the campaign are sweeping: the destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, the neutralization of its military capabilities, and — though administration officials have been careful with their language — what amounts to regime change [3].

The Battlefield: Ten Days of Escalation

What the administration may have envisioned as a swift, decisive campaign has instead produced a sprawling regional conflict. Iran responded to the initial strikes with a massive retaliatory barrage. By March 5, Iranian military sources told Fars News Agency that Iran had fired over 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones since the war began — approximately 40 percent aimed at Israel and 60 percent at US targets across the region [3].

The Iranian counterattacks have struck targets in an alarming number of countries. Missile and drone strikes have hit US bases and allied nations including Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates [3]. The war has effectively metastasized across the entire Persian Gulf and beyond.

On the Israeli front, Hezbollah launched rockets toward northern Israel, prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes in Lebanon that have killed at least 394 people, including 83 children [6]. The multi-front nature of the conflict has stretched US and Israeli military resources and complicated any notion of a quick resolution.

US Military Losses

The human cost for American forces became starkly real on March 1, when six US service members from the 103rd Sustainment Command, based in Des Moines, Iowa, were killed by a direct Iranian strike on a makeshift operations center at a civilian port in Kuwait [7]. The Pentagon identified the dead as Declan Cody, Jeffrey O'Brien, Cody Khork, Noah Tietjens, Nicole Amor, and Robert Marzan [7]. A seventh service member, Army Sergeant Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky, later died from injuries sustained during an Iranian attack on troops stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia [8]. An eighth death was reported on March 9 [8]. An additional 18 US service members have suffered serious injuries [7].

Reports that Iran may have captured US soldiers briefly circulated before the Trump administration issued a denial [9].

Civilian Toll

The civilian toll in Iran has been devastating. According to Iranian and Lebanese health officials, more than 1,230 people have been killed in Iran alone, with over 12,000 injured [6][10]. Among the dead are 175 schoolgirls and staff who perished when a missile struck a primary school in Minab in southern Iran on the first day of the war [10]. Strikes have also damaged hospitals, schools, the historic Grand Bazaar in Tehran, and the UNESCO-listed Golestan Palace [10].

The United Nations has declared the situation a "major humanitarian emergency," noting that the affected regions currently host nearly 25 million refugees [6]. Iranian authorities shut down internet access on February 28, cutting millions off from essential information and communication with loved ones [10].

Amnesty International issued an urgent call to protect civilians and respect international humanitarian law, while the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights warned that the crisis was "playing out worst fears" [10][11].

The Oil Shock: Strait of Hormuz and Global Markets

Perhaps no single dimension of this conflict has had more immediate global impact than the battle for the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway off Iran's southern coast through which approximately 20 percent of the world's oil transits daily [12].

In what analysts are calling the most significant disruption to global energy markets since the 1973 oil embargo, tanker traffic through the strait has effectively ground to a halt. On March 6, zero tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz — a channel that normally sees 60 or more ships daily [12]. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage, and Iran's retaliatory strikes made the route too dangerous for commercial shipping [12].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 4, 2026CSV

The consequences have been immediate and severe. Brent crude surged past $119 a barrel — a more than 30 percent increase — marking the first time oil topped $100 since Russia's invasion of Ukraine [13][14]. Qatar, which supplies 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas, declared force majeure on its exports after Iranian drone attacks struck its facilities [13].

Source: FRED / S&P Dow Jones Indices

Data as of Mar 7, 2026CSV

Trump has responded with plans to use the US Navy to escort tankers through the strait, ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for maritime trade, and floated the idea of the United States "taking over" the Strait of Hormuz entirely — a statement that briefly pushed oil prices lower on speculation of resumed shipping [12][15].

Economic Fallout: A Global Shockwave

The economic damage extends far beyond energy prices. Global stock markets have plunged, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling more than 5 percent and South Korea's KOSPI dropping 6 percent in a single session [13]. The S&P 500, which had been trading near 6,950 before the war, dropped to 6,740 within the first week of fighting — a decline of roughly 3 percent amid extreme volatility [16].

Economists warn that a sustained surge in energy prices could trigger a toxic combination of higher inflation and slower growth — the dreaded "stagflation" scenario [13][14]. Central banks would likely be forced to raise borrowing costs to curb inflation, dampening consumer spending and dragging down already fragile economic growth. Oxford Economics warned that the conflict poses "significant downside risks" to the global recovery [14]. Djibouti's finance minister warned the fighting would "bring severe economic consequences for developing countries" most dependent on energy imports [13].

The Chatham House think tank noted that the conflict threatens to unravel years of progress on energy transition and economic stabilization, particularly for emerging markets already battered by Trump-era tariff policies [14].

Congress: The War Powers Debate That Wasn't

The constitutional question of who authorizes war has been largely steamrolled by events on the ground. Despite bipartisan concerns about executive overreach, Congress has failed to assert its war powers authority [5][17].

In the Senate, a bipartisan resolution led by Democratic Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia and Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky sought to require explicit congressional authorization before further hostilities. The measure was voted down 47-53, short of the simple majority needed [17]. In the House, a parallel resolution sponsored by Republican Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Democrat Ro Khanna of California was defeated 219-212 along largely party lines [17].

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused the administration of failing to provide "critical details about the scope and immediacy of the threat" and called for formal congressional briefings and public testimony [5]. But with Republicans controlling narrow majorities in both chambers and largely rallying behind the president, the war powers debate has amounted to little more than a procedural speed bump.

Senator Kaine vowed the effort was "not a one and done" and promised further legislative action [5]. For now, however, the war continues without formal congressional authorization — a pattern that has characterized American military engagements for decades.

International Response: A Divided World

The conflict has drawn sharp lines across the international community. Russia condemned the strikes as "a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state," accusing the US and Israel of "plunging the Middle East into an abyss of uncontrolled escalation" [18]. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that the war could lead to nuclear proliferation — the very outcome the US claimed it sought to prevent [18].

China called for "an immediate stop of the military actions" and respect for Iran's "sovereignty, security and territorial integrity," with its foreign minister requesting an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council [18]. Beijing later warned that any effort at regime change in Iran would have "no popular support" [18].

Meanwhile, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine expressed support for the US and Israel, while Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez rejected "the unilateral military action" and called for "immediate de-escalation" [18].

The Trump-Putin phone call on March 9 added another layer of geopolitical complexity. The Kremlin characterized the hour-long conversation as "frank and businesslike," with Putin offering "several thoughts aimed at a quick political and diplomatic end to the Iranian conflict" [19]. Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that France, China, and Russia had all reached out to discuss ceasefire conditions [19].

The New Supreme Leader: Continuity, Not Change

More than a week after Khamenei's assassination, Iranian authorities named his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as his successor [3]. The younger Khamenei has close ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guard, signaling a continuation — rather than a departure from — his father's hardline stance [3]. Trump called the choice "a big mistake," suggesting it would not lead to the kind of political opening Washington might have hoped the war would produce [2].

The selection of a hereditary successor undercuts the implicit premise of regime change — that eliminating the leadership would produce a more moderate or compliant Iranian government. If anything, the appointment suggests the Iranian establishment has circled the wagons, choosing defiance over capitulation.

'Very Complete' — Or Just Beginning?

Trump's declaration that the war is "very complete" raises more questions than it answers. By some narrow military metrics, the claim has a kernel of truth: the US and Israel have dealt devastating blows to Iran's conventional military capabilities, including its navy, air force, and missile infrastructure [1]. But the conflict has simultaneously expanded to engulf half a dozen countries, created a global energy crisis, killed over 1,600 people, and produced no clear path to a political settlement.

The Pentagon's own messaging — "We have Only Just Begun to Fight" — suggests that military planners see a longer road ahead than the president is publicly acknowledging [1]. The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader signals that Iran's leadership has no intention of surrendering. And the economic toll — on global markets, on American consumers facing rising gas prices, on developing nations dependent on energy imports — is only beginning to be felt.

Ten days into the conflict, the fog of war is thick. What is clear is that the gap between the president's confident declarations and the messy reality on the ground is wide and growing. Whether this war proves to be "very complete" or merely in its opening chapter may well define the Trump presidency — and reshape the Middle East for a generation.