Iran Expected to Deliver Response to US Peace Offer Friday

On March 25, Iran formally rejected the Trump administration's 15-point framework for ending the four-week-old US-Israel military campaign against it, calling the proposal "extremely maximalist and unreasonable" [1][2]. The rejection came as the conflict—launched on February 28 under the codename Operation Epic Fury—has killed at least 1,500 people in Iran and injured over 18,500 more, closed the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial traffic, and sent global oil prices surging past $100 per barrel [3][4].

Iran's counter-offer, delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, laid out five conditions that amount to a near-complete reversal of America's stated war aims [5]. The gap between the two positions raises a central question: with neither side showing willingness to compromise on core demands, what would it take to stop this war?

The 15-Point Plan: What the US Is Asking

The Trump administration's proposal, delivered to Tehran via Pakistan, represents the most detailed US framework for ending the conflict to date [6]. Its reported provisions include:

• A 30-day ceasefire while both sides negotiate final terms
• Dismantlement of Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow
• Transfer of all enriched uranium stockpiles to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
• A permanent commitment from Iran to never develop nuclear weapons
• Restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program, limiting range and quantity
• Cessation of support for regional armed groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis
• Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial shipping
• Protection of regional energy infrastructure from Iranian strikes

In exchange, the US offered to lift nuclear-related sanctions, remove the UN "snapback" sanctions mechanism, and provide assistance in developing civilian nuclear power at the Bushehr plant [7][8].

The White House Press Secretary warned that if Iran refused, "President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before" [7]. Trump himself has extended multiple deadlines for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, most recently on March 26 [9].

Iran's Five Counter-Conditions

Iran's response, outlined by President Masoud Pezeshkian, set out demands that the US would almost certainly reject [5][10]:

1. An end to all US and Israeli military operations, including targeted assassinations
2. Legally binding guarantees preventing future aggression against Iran
3. Payment of war reparations for damages inflicted during the conflict
4. Cessation of hostilities against all Iranian-aligned groups across the region
5. International recognition of Iranian authority over Strait of Hormuz transit

Iranian military spokesperson Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi added a pointed summary: "Don't dress up your defeat as an agreement" [7].

Iran also stated it was "ready to provide all the necessary guarantees that it will never develop nuclear weapons" but insisted on its right to peaceful nuclear technology—a position fundamentally at odds with the US demand to eliminate domestic enrichment entirely [5].

How This Compares to the 2015 JCPOA

The distance between the current US proposal and the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) illustrates why Iran views the terms as a non-starter.

Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to reduce its low-enriched uranium stockpile by 97%, limit enrichment to 3.67%, restrict centrifuge operations at Natanz to 5,060 machines, and halt enrichment at Fordow for 15 years. In return, it received comprehensive sanctions relief and maintained the right to domestic enrichment for civilian purposes [11][12].

The 2026 proposal goes far beyond the JCPOA in several ways. It demands the complete dismantlement—not merely restriction—of enrichment facilities. It proposes moving all enrichment activity outside Iranian territory to a regional consortium model, potentially hosted by the UAE or Saudi Arabia [12]. And it extends the proposed timeline from 15 to 25 years [12].

The JCPOA's collapse offers Iran a powerful argument against trusting any new agreement. The Trump administration withdrew from the deal in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions despite Iran's verified compliance, a fact that Iranian negotiators have repeatedly cited [11]. As Arms Control Association analysts noted in a March 11 assessment, US negotiators in the latest round were "ill-prepared for serious nuclear negotiations" and appeared to underestimate the depth of Iranian mistrust [13].

Iran's Nuclear Stockpile: The Numbers

Iran's nuclear capabilities have expanded dramatically since the JCPOA's collapse. As of the IAEA's last verified inspection on June 13, 2025, Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%—the largest stockpile of highly enriched uranium held by any non-nuclear-weapon state in history [14][15]. Much of this material was stored in an underground tunnel complex at Isfahan.

Beyond the 60% stockpile, Iran held approximately 840 kg enriched to 20% and 2,595 kg enriched to 5% [15]. It had announced plans to install 32 additional centrifuge cascades and increase monthly production of 60% enriched uranium from 4.7 kg to 37 kg [15].

The Defense Intelligence Agency assessed in May 2025 that Iran would need "probably less than one week" to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single weapon [14]. The Institute for Science and International Security offered an even shorter estimate: Iran could produce its first 25 kg of weapons-grade (90%) uranium at Fordow in two to three days, with enough material for nine weapons producible within three weeks [14].

Since June 13, 2025, the IAEA has had no access to any of Iran's four declared enrichment facilities and cannot verify the current size, location, or status of the stockpile [14]. The war has made the verification gap even wider.

Source: IAEA / Arms Control Association

Data as of Mar 27, 2026CSV

The Economic Toll: Oil Markets in Crisis

The conflict's economic footprint extends far beyond the Middle East. Before the war, approximately 130 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. As of late March, that number had fallen to six or fewer [4][16].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 23, 2026CSV

The head of the International Energy Agency described the situation as the "greatest global energy security challenge in history" [3]. Oil production across Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE collectively dropped by at least 10 million barrels per day by mid-March as shipping ground to a halt [3].

The Trump administration took the unusual step of easing sanctions on certain Iranian oil stockpiles in a bid to curb soaring energy prices—a move that drew criticism from both hawks who saw it as rewarding Iranian aggression and doves who viewed it as insufficient [17]. Economist Nader Habibi assessed the likelihood of talks at 60%, noting that mounting pressure on all parties—Trump faces voter opposition and market disruptions, while Iran faces regional isolation and economic strain—creates incentives for compromise [1].

The World Trade Organization warned that sustained high oil and gas prices could reduce 2026 global GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points [3]. Asian economies, which import roughly 80% of their oil through the Strait of Hormuz, face the steepest consequences, with India particularly vulnerable to inflation and currency depreciation [18].

Domestic Politics: A Hardline Turn in Tehran

The war has fundamentally reshaped Iran's internal power dynamics. The February 28 strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and on March 8, Iran's Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader [19][20].

Mojtaba's appointment was backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and senior hardline figures including Ahmad Vahidi and Hossein Taeb [19]. The moderate faction—which pushed for candidates like former president Hassan Rouhani and Hassan Khomeini, with the support of pragmatists including President Pezeshkian and Ali Larijani—was overruled [19].

In his first public statement, delivered via written text read by a state television anchor rather than in person, Mojtaba Khamenei vowed continued military resistance [20][21]. He declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, promised attacks on US bases would continue, and said "revenge" for his father's killing was a "file that will remain open" [20]. He offered no path toward negotiation.

This positions President Pezeshkian, a reformist elected in 2024 on a platform of diplomatic engagement, as increasingly marginalized. While Pezeshkian has outlined conditions for ending the war, the supreme leader's office holds final authority over military and foreign policy decisions. The Soufan Center assessed that "pragmatists like him are largely powerless" under the current configuration [22].

Regional Stakes: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Gulf

The war's regional consequences have been severe and unevenly distributed. Saudi Arabia, despite its role in reportedly encouraging the initial strikes [23], has found itself absorbing Iranian retaliatory attacks. The Saudi Ministry of Defence reported multiple strikes against the Eastern Province, with Saudi forces shooting down at least 32 drones and a ballistic missile in a single 11-hour period [4].

Gulf Cooperation Council countries are now insisting on representation in any peace talks, demanding guarantees for energy flow, cessation of Iranian missile threats, and constraints on Tehran's nuclear program and regional proxy networks [4].

Israel's position has been unambiguous. Ambassador Danny Danon stated that Israel is not party to US-Iran talks and that military operations will continue until Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities are eliminated [4]. On March 26, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the killing of Iranian navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, whom Israel accused of directing the Strait of Hormuz closure [16].

Saudi Arabia's calculus is more complex. A Stimson Center analysis noted that in several Gulf capitals, "Israel is increasingly viewed not as a stabilizing partner but as an actor whose escalatory tendencies keep drawing the region into broader conflicts"—a dynamic that threatens the economic transformation agenda envisioned under Saudi Vision 2030 [24].

Why Iran's Hardliners Don't Trust Any Deal

Iran's rejection draws on a long institutional memory of what its leaders characterize as systematic US and Israeli hostility—regardless of Iran's nuclear posture.

The catalog of grievances is extensive: the Stuxnet cyberattack (discovered in 2010), a joint US-Israeli operation that damaged centrifuges at Natanz [25]; the assassinations of at least four nuclear scientists between 2010 and 2012, widely attributed to Israeli intelligence [25]; the killing of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike in January 2020 [25]; the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 despite verified Iranian compliance [11]; the snapback of UN sanctions triggered by European powers in August 2025 [19]; and now, the killing of the supreme leader himself.

For hardliners, this pattern demonstrates that Washington seeks regime change regardless of Iran's nuclear behavior. The Abraham Accords—security partnerships between Israel and several Arab states, including Bahrain and the UAE—reinforced the perception that a US-Israeli-Gulf coalition was being assembled against Iran [25].

"People like us can never get along with people like you," an Iranian military official told mediators, according to Al Jazeera's reporting—a statement that captures the depth of institutional distrust [1].

If Iran Says No: The US Playbook

The Trump administration has signaled escalation as the default response to rejection. The White House has repeatedly warned of intensified strikes, and military operations have continued throughout the negotiation period [9][6].

Concrete next steps could include an expansion of the ongoing campaign to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force—an operation the US military launched on March 19 [16]—and additional targeting of Iranian military leadership. The killing of naval commander Tangsiri on March 26 suggests this track is already underway [16].

Additional sanctions options are limited given that Iran is already among the world's most heavily sanctioned nations [1]. The Trump administration's decision to ease certain oil sanctions to manage energy prices further complicates the "maximum pressure" framework [17].

Mediating nations—Pakistan, Oman, Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia—have established communication channels, but none has the leverage to compel either side toward compromise [1]. A February 18 analysis in Axios concluded that with no signs of a breakthrough, "war looks the most likely option"—an assessment that proved prescient ten days later [3].

What Comes Next

The Friday deadline has passed with Iran's rejection. Trump extended yet another deadline on March 26 for reopening the Strait of Hormuz [9], a pattern that suggests the administration is reluctant to trigger a further escalation even as it threatens one.

The structural obstacles to any agreement remain formidable. The US demands the elimination of Iran's enrichment capability; Iran insists domestic enrichment is non-negotiable. The US wants Iran's regional proxy network dismantled; Iran's new supreme leader has vowed to expand military operations. The US offers sanctions relief that a future administration could revoke; Iran demands guarantees that no US government can credibly provide.

With over 1,500 dead in Iran, global oil markets in turmoil, and both sides publicly locked into maximalist positions, the conflict has entered a phase where the costs of continuing the war may be the only force capable of driving compromise—and even that remains uncertain.