Israel Reports Fresh Waves of Iranian Missile Strikes Amid Escalating Conflict

On March 24, 2026, air raid sirens sounded across central Israel as the IDF detected yet another Iranian ballistic missile targeting Tel Aviv. A warhead struck a street in the city, damaging three buildings and lightly wounding six people [1]. It was the latest in a string of Iranian strikes that has persisted for nearly four weeks—each salvo smaller than the last, but each a reminder that the war between Iran and the US-Israeli coalition is far from over.

The conflict began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior military and political officials [2]. Since then, Iran has fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, US military bases, and Gulf states, while absorbing punishing airstrikes across 26 of its 31 provinces [3]. The death toll has surpassed 5,900 in Iran alone [4]. In Israel, 18 people have been killed and more than 3,700 injured [5]. The war has spilled across borders, upended global energy markets, and divided Western allies over its legality and objectives.

The February 28 Strike and Its Aftermath

The war's origins trace to a period of failed diplomacy. Through January and February 2026, indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations took place in Geneva with Omani mediation. Talks on February 6, 17, and 22 produced what Oman called a "positive push," but significant differences remained unresolved [6]. Six days later, the US and Israel struck.

Nearly 900 strikes were conducted in the first 12 hours of what the United States dubbed "Operation Epic Fury," targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership compounds [2]. A strike near Khamenei's office in central Tehran killed the Supreme Leader. Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, and approximately 40 other Iranian officials were also killed [6]. President Trump confirmed Khamenei's death on social media. On March 8, Mojtaba Khamenei—the late leader's son—was elected to replace him [6].

Iran's response was immediate. Hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles were launched at Israel, US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE [2]. The deadliest single strike on Israel came on March 1, when a ballistic missile hit a residential neighborhood in Beit Shemesh, killing nine civilians and injuring over 20 [5].

The Missile Volleys: Scale, Type, and Interception

Iran's missile arsenal—the largest and most varied in the Middle East—has been the primary instrument of its retaliation. The strikes have included medium-range ballistic missiles, some equipped with cluster munitions that release submunitions before impact, complicating interception [7]. On March 19, Iran launched five separate missile salvos at Jerusalem and northern Israel within a single hour [8]. On March 23, northern Israel was targeted again as the IDF simultaneously struck Hezbollah positions in Beirut [9].

Israeli forces have intercepted 92% of incoming Iranian projectiles, according to the IDF [7]. But the 8% that have penetrated defenses have caused significant harm. In early March, strikes on the towns of Arad and Dimona—the latter near Israel's main nuclear research reactor—injured more than 180 people, shearing apartment facades and shattering windows across multiple blocks [7]. The IAEA reported no abnormal radiation levels at the Dimona facility [7]. On March 18, Iranian missiles killed a foreign worker in central Israel and three Palestinian women in the West Bank [10].

Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani of the IDF acknowledged the limits of the system: "Even the best defense in the world isn't perfect" [7]. The IDF ordered an investigation into interception failures.

Comparison to Previous Iranian Attacks

The scale of the 2026 strikes dwarfs Iran's two previous direct attacks on Israel. In April 2024, Iran launched over 300 projectiles—including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones—in its first-ever direct strike on Israeli territory. Nearly all were intercepted, and damage was minimal. In October 2024, Iran fired approximately 180 ballistic missiles, with several impacting near military installations. The 2026 conflict represents a fundamentally different situation: sustained, multi-week bombardment rather than a single retaliatory salvo, reflecting the shift from limited tit-for-tat exchanges to open warfare [3].

By the tenth day of the conflict, the IDF reported that Iranian missile and drone attacks had dropped by more than 90%, attributed to Israeli success in destroying approximately 300 Iranian missile launchers [3]. Iranian salvos declined from triple digits in the first days to single digits by mid-March [7]. Yet Iran has continued launching, demonstrating residual capability even under sustained bombardment.

Source: ACLED / IDF reports / Times of Israel live blogs

Data as of Mar 24, 2026CSV

Casualty Toll Across the Region

The asymmetry in casualties is stark. According to the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, at least 5,900 people had been killed in Iran by the war's twenty-first day, of whom 595 were civilians and 5,305 were military personnel [4]. Hengaw documented the deaths of 127 minors and 168 women among civilian victims. Iran's Deputy Health Minister separately reported 1,255 killed, including 200 children and 11 healthcare workers [11]. The discrepancy between official Iranian government figures and independent NGO counts remains significant.

In Israel, 18 people have died—14 civilians and two military personnel—with over 3,730 injured [5]. US forces have suffered 20 deaths: 13 from Iranian attacks, one health-related death in Kuwait, and six in a KC-135 aircraft crash in Iraq on March 13 [5].

The conflict's regional reach is reflected in casualties across multiple countries: 1,001 killed in Lebanon (including 118 children), 61 in Iraq (mostly paramilitary forces), eight in the UAE, six in Kuwait, three in Oman, two each in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia [5]. Israel issued sweeping evacuation orders across southern Lebanon, displacing more than one million people by late March in preparation for a potential ground invasion [6].

Regional Actors: Hezbollah, Iraqi Militias, and the Houthis

The war has activated Iran's network of regional allies to varying degrees.

Hezbollah opened a second front on March 2, launching missiles and drones into northern Israel. By March 4, the group had conducted long-range missile strikes targeting Tel Aviv [3]. ACLED estimated Hezbollah retained approximately 25,000 missiles, 1,000 drones, and 3,000 elite fighters [3]. Hezbollah officials stated publicly that the killing of Khamenei crossed an absolute red line, making intervention a matter of organizational survival as much as solidarity [12]. Israel responded with over 250 strikes across Lebanon [3].

Iraqi militias affiliated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 67 drone and missile attacks on US positions during the first three days of the war, though with limited impact and no reported US casualties from those specific attacks [3]. The US-Israeli coalition conducted strikes in Iraq killing at least 10 militia members [3].

The Houthis in Yemen have, notably, not launched direct military attacks despite rhetorical solidarity with Iran. Houthi attacks on commercial vessels had already fallen from 150 in 2024 to seven in 2025, following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in October 2025 [12]. Analysts assess the group retains the capability to resume Red Sea shipping attacks but has so far confined itself to verbal threats and warnings about any effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [12].

The degree of direct Iranian coordination with these groups versus independent action remains difficult to verify independently. ACLED data shows a surge in violence across the region concentrated in the first week, with Hezbollah and Iraqi militias acting within hours of Iran's initial retaliatory strikes [3].

Energy Markets and Economic Fallout

The war's economic impact has been immediate and severe. The Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas flows—has seen near-total disruption of tanker traffic. Iran laid approximately a dozen mines in the strait by March 11 [13].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 16, 2026CSV

WTI crude oil, which traded at roughly $67 per barrel before the war, surged past $98 by mid-March. Brent crude spiked even higher, reaching $119.50 per barrel before settling around $112 by late March—an approximately 80% increase from pre-conflict levels [14]. Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field, which supplies approximately 75% of Iran's domestic natural gas, marked a critical escalation in infrastructure targeting [15]. Iran retaliated by striking Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City—the source of roughly 20% of global LNG supply—and Saudi energy facilities [15].

The Soufan Center assessed that Israel's targeting of upstream energy production, rather than storage depots, appeared designed to "make the living conditions for civilians intolerable" and trigger internal unrest [15]. Gulf states condemned both sides: Qatar declared Iranian military attachés persona non grata, while Saudi Arabia's foreign minister stated that "the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered" [15].

International Response: A Fractured West

European governments have struggled to present a united front.

France took the most legally critical stance. President Emmanuel Macron called the initial strikes an "outbreak of war" carrying "serious consequences for international peace and security" and pushed for a UN Security Council meeting [16]. Macron deployed the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to protect French interests, including the Camp de la Paix base in Abu Dhabi [17].

Germany was more sympathetic to US-Israeli objectives. Chancellor Friedrich Merz described Iran as a major security threat, arguing that "decades of sanctions and diplomacy have failed to halt Tehran's destabilizing activities" [17]. While joining calls for restraint, Berlin emphasized shared Western interests in preventing Iranian nuclear weapons development.

The United Kingdom attempted a middle path. Prime Minister Keir Starmer initially emphasized that Britain "did not participate" in the strikes and restricted US use of the Diego Garcia base, but subsequently reaffirmed American access for "specific and limited defensive purpose" [17]. London provided what it described as "defensive military support in the region."

Spain strongly condemned the attacks, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refusing to allow US forces to use Spanish bases. Trump responded by threatening to "cut off all relations" [17]. Italy raised legal concerns about the strikes' consistency with international law, while Poland and Baltic nations offered political backing [17].

Russia requested a special session at the International Organizations in Vienna on the US-Israeli strikes [16]. The UN Security Council remains deadlocked, with no binding resolution passed.

Red Lines and the Nuclear Question

The war has already crossed several thresholds that both sides previously identified as red lines. Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field prompted Iran to declare that all regional energy infrastructure was now a "legitimate target" [18]. Iran struck Gulf energy facilities in response, including in countries that had no direct role in the conflict.

The question of nuclear facilities looms over the conflict. The strike near Dimona raised alarms in Israel, while the IAEA's director general stated publicly that war "can't entirely eliminate Iran's nuclear program," noting that material and enrichment capabilities would likely survive the bombing campaign [19]. Iran retains significant stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, and international monitoring access remains contested [18].

Trump stated on March 20 that he was considering "winding down" the war, even as additional Marines were deployed to the Middle East [20]. The IDF, however, said it was planning at least three more weeks of operations, with "thousands of targets" remaining [21]. The Soufan Center assessed that Israel was "closing avenues for a U.S.-preferred outcome that includes a temporary offramp" [15].

One forecasting model estimated a 42% probability of "controlled escalation"—a scenario in which fighting continues but remains below the threshold of full territorial invasion [22]. The alternative scenarios—a negotiated ceasefire or uncontrolled escalation drawing in additional state actors—were assessed as less likely but not improbable.

What Comes Next

Twenty-five days into a war that began with a decapitation strike and has since expanded to encompass missile barrages, energy infrastructure targeting, naval mining, and proxy activation across half a dozen countries, the trajectory remains uncertain. Iran's missile capability has been degraded but not eliminated. Israel's defense systems have held but not perfectly. Oil prices have nearly doubled. Over 7,000 people are dead across the region. More than a million Lebanese civilians have been displaced.

The gap between US and Israeli strategic objectives—Washington's talk of "winding down" versus the IDF's plans for weeks more of strikes—suggests internal coalition tensions that may shape the conflict's next phase as much as anything Tehran does. For ordinary Iranians enduring airstrikes across 26 provinces, and for Israeli civilians running to shelters as sirens sound over Tel Aviv, the costs of this war are measured not in strategic calculations but in daily survival.