Trump Postpones Planned Strikes on Iran

On the morning of March 23, 2026—day 24 of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran—President Donald Trump posted a message on Truth Social that sent relief rippling through global markets and confusion cascading through diplomatic channels. He had instructed the Pentagon to postpone "any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure" for five days, citing what he called "very good and productive conversations" toward "a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East" [1][2].

Within hours, Iran denied that any such conversations had taken place [3].

The gap between those two statements defines the current moment in a conflict that has already killed more than 1,500 Iranians, displaced over a million Lebanese, sent oil past $126 a barrel, and prompted the Pentagon to request $200 billion in supplemental war funding [4][5][6]. Whether the five-day window represents a genuine off-ramp or a tactical pause in a widening war remains, as of this writing, entirely unclear.

How the War Began

Operation Epic Fury launched at 06:35 UTC on February 28, 2026, when U.S. Central Command and Israeli forces began coordinated airstrikes across Iran [7]. The opening salvo targeted Leadership House, the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed along with several senior officials [7]. In the days that followed, strikes destroyed IRGC facilities in Tehran, missile production sites, and naval installations.

The immediate trigger was the collapse of indirect nuclear negotiations held in Oman's capital, Muscat, in early February. The mediating Omani foreign minister had reported significant progress, with Iran willing to make concessions on its nuclear program. But Trump publicly said he was "not thrilled" with the talks [7]. Behind the scenes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been lobbying Trump for weeks to pursue military action, arguing the moment was right to strike [8].

U.S. intelligence assessments at the time did not identify an imminent threat from Iran, according to reporting by the Washington Post [8]. The decision to strike was driven less by a specific provocation than by a strategic calculation—shared between Washington, Riyadh, and Jerusalem—that Iran's nuclear program, its approximately 970 pounds of enriched uranium sufficient for as many as 10 nuclear weapons, and its regional proxy network could be neutralized through military force [9].

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Iran's response to Operation Epic Fury included missile and drone strikes against Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and allied Gulf states [7]. But its most consequential retaliatory move was the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz beginning March 4, 2026.

Ship-tracking data showed a 70% reduction in traffic through the strait almost immediately [10]. Although Iran did not formally declare a blockade, IRGC naval forces threatened and attacked vessels attempting transit, making commercial passage untenable. The closure has been described as the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1970s oil crisis [10].

The economic fallout was swift. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years and peaked at $126 [10]. In 2024, approximately 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments through the strait were destined for Asian markets, with China receiving roughly a third of its oil via this route. Europe depends on the strait for 12% to 14% of its liquefied natural gas imports from Qatar [10].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 16, 2026CSV

The 48-Hour Ultimatum and Its Reversal

On Saturday evening, March 22, Trump issued an ultimatum: Iran had 48 hours to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels or the United States would "obliterate" Iran's power plants [11].

Iran responded with escalation, not compliance. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the strait would be "completely closed" if the U.S. attacked Iran's energy grid and would remain shut until any destroyed power plants were rebuilt [12]. Iran's Defense Council said any attempt to target Iranian coasts or islands would trigger the mining of "all access routes in the Persian Gulf" [1]. The IRGC also threatened to strike electrical plants across the Middle East that supply power to U.S. military bases [2].

Then, less than 24 hours before the deadline would have expired, Trump reversed course. His Truth Social post announced the five-day postponement, claiming that envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had conducted talks Sunday evening with what he described as a "respected" Iranian leader—though explicitly not Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed power after his father's death in the February 28 strikes [4][1].

"The United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East," Trump wrote [2].

Iran's Flat Denial

Tehran's response was unambiguous. Iranian state media, citing an unnamed senior security official, said "direct or indirect talks have not taken place between Washington and Tehran" [2]. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called reports of negotiations "fake news" [12]. The state-owned IRAN newspaper suggested Trump's announcement was aimed at "reducing energy prices and providing time to implement military plans" [4].

Iran's Fars News Agency went further, stating there had been "zero contact with the U.S.—not direct, not through intermediaries" [13]. Iranian media widely portrayed the postponement not as a diplomatic opening but as Trump backing down under pressure from Iran's retaliatory threats.

This disconnect—Trump claiming productive talks, Iran denying any contact whatsoever—makes it impossible to assess whether the five-day window will produce any movement toward a ceasefire.

Market Whiplash

Financial markets, at least, treated the announcement as good news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,021 points (2.24%) to close at 46,599. The S&P 500 rose 2.09% and the Nasdaq gained 2.28% [14].

Oil prices fell sharply. Brent crude dropped more than 9% to $101.89 per barrel after topping $112 on Friday. West Texas Intermediate fell 8.58% to $89.80 [14][15]. Treasury bonds also rallied on the reduced perception of immediate escalation [15].

However, markets retreated from their initial highs after the Israel Defense Forces announced it was continuing strikes on Tehran and after Iran's denial of any talks cast doubt on Trump's account [14].

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 23, 2026CSV

The $200 Billion Question

The war's price tag is already generating bipartisan unease. On March 19, the Pentagon sent the White House a request for more than $200 billion in supplemental funding—a figure Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged "could move" [6][16].

The request would fund increased production of munitions used to strike thousands of targets since February 28. Fortune reported that the sum might sustain U.S. military operations for only about 140 additional days [17].

Many lawmakers, including some Republicans, have expressed skepticism about approving such spending, particularly given that the administration has not sought formal congressional authorization for the war and has not articulated a clear timeline for ending operations [18].

The Legal Vacuum

The constitutional questions surrounding Operation Epic Fury remain unresolved. The Trump administration has relied on Article II of the Constitution—the president's authority as commander-in-chief—rather than any statutory authorization [19]. Congress repealed both the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force in December 2025, leaving only the 2001 AUMF, which was enacted to authorize force against those responsible for the September 11 attacks and has no plausible application to Iran [19].

Efforts to invoke congressional authority have failed in both chambers. On March 4, the Senate rejected a war powers resolution by a 47-53 vote. The following day, the House narrowly defeated a similar measure 219-212 [20]. Legal scholars have broadly questioned the administration's position. As CNN reported, experts are "skeptical" that the strikes meet constitutional requirements for unilateral executive military action [19].

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) has urged Congress to pass a specific AUMF for Operation Epic Fury, arguing that formal authorization would strengthen the legal footing and signal resolve [21]. No such legislation has advanced.

Echoes of June 2019

The postponement inevitably invites comparison to June 2019, when Trump ordered and then aborted retaliatory strikes against Iran after Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance drone. In that instance, Trump called off the attack with approximately 10 minutes to spare after learning the strikes would kill an estimated 150 people [22].

"I thought about it for a second and I said, you know what, they shot down an unmanned drone... and here we are sitting with 150 dead people that would have taken place in about 15 minutes, and I didn't think it was proportionate," Trump said at the time [22].

The differences between then and now are stark. In 2019, the trigger was a single incident—the downing of an unmanned drone—and no shots had been fired. In 2026, the U.S. is already three weeks into a full-scale military campaign that has killed thousands and reshaped the Middle Eastern map. The 2019 abort was driven by casualty concerns; the 2026 postponement appears driven by a combination of Iranian deterrent threats (mining the entire Persian Gulf), diplomatic maneuvering, and the practical reality that destroying Iran's power grid would deepen the energy crisis already hammering global markets.

In 2019, the internal debate pitted hawks like National Security Advisor John Bolton against more cautious military advisors [23]. In 2026, the advisory dynamics appear different: Witkoff and Kushner are leading diplomatic outreach, while Hegseth has offered no clear timeline for the war's conclusion [6].

The Human Cost

The casualty figures, while contested, paint a grim picture across the region. PBS News reported more than 1,500 Iranian deaths as of March 23 [4]. The Red Crescent reported over 600 civilian deaths in Iran as of March 3 alone, while the Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) estimated 742 civilian deaths by the same date [24]. Iranian opposition groups have estimated total casualties, including indirect deaths and unreported cases, as high as 7,000 [24].

Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed and at least 18 wounded [4][25]. Fifteen Israelis have died from Iranian retaliatory strikes, with over 100 injured [8]. Lebanon has suffered more than 1,000 deaths and over one million displaced, according to the UNHCHR [4][7]. Civilian deaths have also been reported in Gulf Arab states and the occupied West Bank [4].

Regional Reactions

The war has forced difficult recalculations across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, which lobbied for the strikes, has found itself an Iranian target. Riyadh expelled Iranian diplomatic personnel after intercepting one of three missiles fired at the kingdom [8]. Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz called the opening strikes a "pre-emptive attack" to "remove threats to the State of Israel" and pledged to "significantly increase the intensity of the strikes" alongside the U.S. [8].

Netanyahu has called on other nations to join the war, framing it as a matter of global security [8]. European allies have been more cautious, with the UK House of Commons Library publishing a detailed briefing on the strikes that stops short of endorsing the operation [26].

Iran, for its part, has framed the conflict in existential terms. Tehran views demands for zero uranium enrichment and limits on its ballistic missile program as matters of sovereignty and national survival. With its proxy network—Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias—degraded by years of sustained pressure, Iran increasingly treats its missile arsenal as its last credible deterrent [27].

Does Postponement Strengthen or Weaken Deterrence?

Defense analysts are divided. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Nicole Grajewski and Ankit Panda argued that Iran's deterrence strategy has suffered a "stunning failure"—its proxy network, meant to make Iran too costly to strike, had instead made it "conspicuously vulnerable" by 2026. Its missile arsenal, "supposed to threaten devastating retaliation, had been prematurely spent" [28].

From this perspective, the postponement changes little strategically. Iran's conventional deterrent has already been significantly degraded, and the five-day pause does not restore it.

Others argue the opposite. Iranian media has portrayed the postponement as evidence that Iran's threats—particularly the promise to mine the entire Persian Gulf—forced Trump to back down [3]. If that narrative takes hold, it could encourage Iran to believe that escalatory threats work, potentially leading to bolder actions.

RAND analysts have noted that diplomatic solutions face a structural problem: because the United States has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," it is politically difficult for Iranian leaders to negotiate without appearing to capitulate [29]. The five-day window may be too short and too ambiguous to bridge that gap.

What Comes Next

The five-day clock began ticking on March 23. By March 28, the postponement expires, and Trump will face the same decision with the same constraints: striking Iran's power plants risks deepening the global energy crisis, expanding the war, and inviting Iranian retaliation that could close the Persian Gulf entirely. Not striking risks appearing to capitulate to Iranian threats and leaves the Strait of Hormuz in its current state of partial closure.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is weighing whether to recommend ground forces to secure Iran's enriched uranium stockpile—a decision CNN has called Trump's "most difficult" of the war [9]. Even a "limited" deployment could pull the U.S. into a far larger conflict.

The war has already cost more than the administration anticipated. The $200 billion supplemental request, the 1,500-plus Iranian dead, the 13 American service members killed, the million-plus displaced in Lebanon, and the first oil crisis in a generation are the measurable costs. The harder question—whether any of this has made the region more stable or the United States more secure—has no answer yet.

Five days is not much time to find one.