Trump Claims Iran Near Surrender in G7 Call

On a tense virtual call with G7 leaders Wednesday morning, President Donald Trump declared that Iran was "about to surrender," boasting that Operation Epic Fury had eliminated "a cancer that was threatening us all" [1]. Hours later, Iran's newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first public statement — not to negotiate, but to vow vengeance and pledge that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed [2].

The exchange encapsulates the central contradiction of the two-week-old conflict: the widening chasm between Trump's declarations of imminent victory and the deepening economic and humanitarian crisis engulfing the Middle East and beyond.

From Negotiations to Airstrikes: How the War Began

The path to war ran through months of failed diplomacy. Beginning in January 2026, the United States and Iran engaged in three rounds of indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. After the third round on February 26, Al Busaidi told CBS News that "substantial progress" had been made and a deal was "within our reach" [3].

But Trump signaled impatience. "I am not happy with the negotiations," he told reporters on February 28, while also indicating he would give talks more time [4]. That same day, with no warning to negotiating partners, U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 coordinated strikes across Iran in the operation's first 12 hours [5].

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial wave, along with dozens of senior Iranian officials. The strikes targeted missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure, and the country's nuclear facilities. The IAEA confirmed on March 3 that while the Natanz nuclear facility was not destroyed, its entrance buildings sustained significant damage, rendering it inaccessible [6].

Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israeli territory, U.S. military bases in the region, and Persian Gulf states. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil transits — effectively closed to all shipping [7].

The G7 Call: Triumph and Tensions

The March 12 G7 call, hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, was convened specifically to address the war's growing economic fallout [8]. According to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the call's contents, the session was marked by sharp divisions.

Trump opened by boasting about Operation Epic Fury's results, telling the other leaders: "I got rid of a cancer that was threatening us all." He claimed Iran was on the verge of capitulation. But in a revealing contradiction, he also acknowledged that "nobody knows who is the leader, so there is no one that can announce surrender" [1].

The other six leaders — representing Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom — pressed Trump to end the war quickly and to prioritize reopening the Strait of Hormuz. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Macron specifically urged Trump not to allow Moscow to exploit the crisis or receive sanctions relief [1].

A particularly tense exchange occurred between Trump and Starmer. The British prime minister had initially refused to allow the U.S. to use British bases for strikes on Iran but reversed course after Iranian retaliatory strikes hit Gulf states, offering base access for "defensive" operations. Trump dismissed the offer in front of the other leaders: "You should have proposed it before the war — now it is too late" [1][9].

Iran's Defiant Response

Far from surrendering, Iran's new leadership struck a combative posture. The Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei — the 56-year-old son of the slain supreme leader — to the position on March 8, just over a week after his father's death [10].

In his first public statement, issued through state media on March 12, the younger Khamenei declared: "We will not forgo avenging the blood of the martyrs. Every citizen killed by the enemy is a case for vengeance in itself." He announced plans to open "new fronts in the war where the enemy has little experience and is highly vulnerable" and vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as "a tool to pressure the enemy" [2][11].

Trump dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei as a "lightweight" and insisted he should have a say in choosing Iran's next leader — a suggestion Tehran immediately rejected [10]. Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, pledged "unwavering support" for the new Iranian leader, calling Russia "a reliable partner" to Tehran [10].

The Oil Price Shock

The war's most immediate global impact has been the energy crisis triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Brent Crude prices surged from approximately $70 per barrel before the conflict to over $110 within days [7]. As of March 13, oil remained above $100 per barrel amid what analysts describe as the largest disruption to global energy supplies in a generation [12].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

U.S. gasoline prices reflected the shock, climbing from $2.94 per gallon in the days before the war to $3.50 by March 9 — a nearly 20% increase in under two weeks [13].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

The IRGC warned that prices could reach $200 per barrel if the blockade continued [7]. G7 finance ministers discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves but failed to reach agreement, with France's finance minister Roland Lescure saying the group was "not there yet" on a deal [14].

Russia Sanctions Relief: The Strategic Gambit

Perhaps the most politically explosive development came Thursday night, when the Treasury Department announced a one-month waiver on U.S. sanctions on Russian oil shipments — a move made over the explicit objections of European G7 leaders who had pressed Trump on the issue just hours earlier [15].

The waiver, valid until April 11, covers Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded on vessels as of March 12, affecting an estimated 100–124 million barrels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized it as a "narrowly tailored, short-term measure" that would "not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government" [16].

The timing was notable: the waiver came after Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev met in Florida with Trump advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to discuss the global energy crisis [1]. European officials reacted with alarm, fearing the relief would fund Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, while Putin's team welcomed the decision and pushed for further easing [15].

The Humanitarian Cost

Behind the geopolitical maneuvering lies a mounting human toll. Iran's Ministry of Health reports over 1,045 confirmed deaths from airstrikes and military operations, while opposition group HRANA estimates up to 7,000 when including indirect casualties and unreported deaths. The Trump administration places the figure at 32,000 — though all figures remain heavily disputed [5].

Seven U.S. service members have been killed in action during Operation Epic Fury [17].

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that 3.2 million people have been displaced since the war began [18]. Among the most devastating incidents was a reported U.S. strike on a school in Minab, Iran, killing an estimated 175 people, most of them children — which the UN described as a "grave violation of humanitarian law" [19].

Amnesty International issued an urgent call to protect civilians and respect international humanitarian law amid the escalating conflict [19]. The International Criminal Court has signaled it may open preliminary examinations into potential war crimes by multiple parties.

The Nuclear Question

A central justification for the strikes was Iran's advanced nuclear program. At the time of the attack, Iran maintained a stockpile of 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity — a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that this stockpile could allow Iran to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs if weaponized [6].

However, the Arms Control Association published an analysis arguing that Iran's nuclear and missile programs did not pose an "imminent threat" requiring military action, and that U.S. negotiators had been "ill-prepared for serious nuclear negotiations" [20]. CNN reported that actually capturing Iran's highly enriched uranium would require a large U.S. ground force — a scenario the Pentagon has thus far avoided [21].

The IAEA now faces an even more severe verification challenge. The agency said it "cannot verify whether Iran has suspended all enrichment-related activities" or assess "the size of Iran's uranium stockpile at the affected nuclear facilities" [6]. Arms control experts warn that the strikes may have paradoxically made Iran's nuclear status less transparent, not more.

A Divided World

International reactions to the conflict have been fractured. Most countries have declined to take a definitive side, calling broadly for peace. In the Middle East, most nations condemned Iran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf states — which hit energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar — while also expressing concern over civilian casualties in Iran [22].

European positions have diverged sharply. German Chancellor Merz argued that international law should not stand in the way of "necessary action," saying it was inappropriate to lecture allies when "we share many of their goals without actually being able to achieve them ourselves." Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, by contrast, "firmly condemned" the U.S.-Israeli attacks as a violation of international law and EU values [23].

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the strikes a "reckless step" and a "deliberate, premeditated, and unprovoked act of armed aggression" [22]. China has called for an immediate ceasefire and convened emergency UN Security Council sessions.

What Comes Next

Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the gap between Trump's claim of imminent Iranian surrender and conditions on the ground remains stark. Iran's new leadership has vowed to fight on. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Oil prices continue to batter global economies. European allies are publicly fractured over both the war and the Russia sanctions waiver. And the nuclear question — ostensibly the war's raison d'etre — has become murkier, not clearer.

The G7 call that was meant to demonstrate allied solidarity instead exposed the depth of disagreements over strategy, endgame, and the war's cascading economic consequences. Whether Trump's assertion of imminent surrender reflects genuine intelligence or wishful thinking may determine not just the course of this conflict, but the stability of the global order for years to come.