Trump Tells G7 Leaders Iran Is 'About to Surrender'

On a virtual G7 call this week, President Donald Trump declared that Iran was on the verge of capitulation. The reality on the ground tells a starkly different story: a new supreme leader has risen, the Strait of Hormuz remains choked, and the world economy is reeling from the biggest oil supply disruption in a generation.

The G7 Call: Victory Lap Meets Urgent Pleas

President Trump told G7 leaders during a videoconference on Wednesday, March 11, that Iran is "about to surrender," according to three officials from G7 countries briefed on the contents of the call [1]. Trump boasted about the results of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. code name for the joint American-Israeli military campaign that began on February 28, telling allies: "I got rid of a cancer that was threatening us all" [1].

But in a statement that undercut his own triumphalist narrative, Trump also acknowledged a critical complication: "Nobody knows who is the leader, so there is no one that can announce surrender" [1]. The remark highlights a fundamental contradiction — claiming an enemy is about to capitulate while simultaneously conceding that there may be no authority capable of doing so.

The call, convened under France's 2026 G7 presidency, was dominated not by congratulations but by alarm [2]. All six other leaders — French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba — urged Trump to end the war quickly, stressing that the Strait of Hormuz must be secured as soon as possible [2][3]. Macron had already publicly declared that the strikes on Iran were "outside the framework of international law" [4].

The tensions were personal as well as geopolitical. Trump reportedly told Starmer in front of the other leaders that he no longer needed Britain's help: "You should have proposed it before the war — now it is too late," a reference to Starmer's initial reluctance to authorize use of British bases for operations [5].

From Diplomacy to War: How Negotiations Collapsed

The path to war was not inevitable. As recently as February 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a "historic" agreement to avert military conflict was "within reach" [6]. Two days later, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi announced a breakthrough: Iran had agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to accept full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency [7].

Then, on February 28, everything changed. The United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury — nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours alone — targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile systems, air defenses, and senior leadership [8][9]. The opening phase focused on what military planners called "decapitation strikes," killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior officials [8].

The strikes came just two days after U.S. and Iranian negotiators had met in Geneva for what Omani mediators described as productive talks on a nuclear deal, with Iran reportedly offering to pause uranium enrichment [10]. The Arms Control Association later assessed that U.S. negotiators had been "ill-prepared for serious nuclear negotiations" and that the diplomatic track was abandoned prematurely [11].

Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone strikes — designated Operation True Promise 4 — targeting Israel, U.S. military bases across the Middle East, and allied Gulf states including the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia [8]. Hezbollah launched missiles into Israel from Lebanon on March 2, prompting further Israeli escalation [7].

Iran's New Supreme Leader: Defiance, Not Surrender

Far from the surrender Trump predicted, Iran has installed new leadership that appears more hardline than what came before. On March 8, the Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei — the 56-year-old son of the slain supreme leader — as Iran's third supreme leader [12][13].

In his first public statement on March 12, read on state television, the younger Khamenei called for national unity, vowed to continue fighting, and declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy" [14][15]. Analysts describe him as more conservative and hardline than his father, a characterization that alarmed Washington [13].

Trump expressed "disappointment" in the selection, but the choice underscores a reality that contradicts the surrender narrative: Iran's political establishment has not fractured under military pressure — it has consolidated around a harder line [13].

The Strait of Hormuz: The World's Most Dangerous Chokepoint

The most consequential dimension of the war for the global economy has been Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply normally passes [16].

On March 2, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officially confirmed the strait was closed and threatened any ship attempting to transit [16]. Tanker traffic initially dropped by approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait. Within days, traffic dropped to near zero [16]. By March 5, protection and indemnity insurers had removed war risk coverage, making transit economically impossible even before the physical dangers [17].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

The IRGC has warned that oil could reach $200 per barrel, with a military spokesman declaring: "Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised" [18]. As of March 13, Brent crude was trading above $100 per barrel — its highest since August 2022 — with WTI crude also surging from approximately $67 before the war to nearly $95 [19][18].

Ironically, Iran itself has continued shipping oil through the strait to China, suggesting the closure is selective rather than total and designed as strategic leverage rather than self-harm [20].

The Global Economic Fallout

The economic impact has been severe and far-reaching. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points on March 2, and global stock markets have experienced sustained volatility [7]. American consumers are already feeling the effects, with average gasoline prices up 17% since the war began [19].

The G7 response has centered on an unprecedented release of emergency oil reserves. The International Energy Agency announced that its 32 member countries would release 400 million barrels — more than double the 182.7 million barrels released in 2022 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine [21][22]. The G7 nations alone account for 70% of the total release, with France contributing 14.5 million barrels [22].

However, analysts have warned that the reserve release will only close about a quarter of the supply gap and will have only a "short-term stabilizing effect" if the war persists and the strait remains closed [22]. Most shipping companies have already begun rerouting around the southern tip of Africa, adding weeks and significant cost to voyages [16].

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 13, 2026CSV

A Contradictory Strategy

Trump's claim of imminent Iranian surrender sits uneasily with multiple observable realities. Iran's new leadership has vowed to fight on. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Iran's retaliatory strikes have expanded the conflict's geographic footprint across the Gulf. And the diplomatic track that appeared to be making progress has been shattered.

During his 2026 State of the Union Address, Trump said he preferred a diplomatic solution but would not allow Iran to get nuclear weapons [6]. Yet the war has complicated that objective. Before the strikes, Iran had approximately 460 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium — enough, according to U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, to produce 11 nuclear bombs [23]. While Operation Epic Fury targeted nuclear sites, CSIS analysis suggests remnants of Iran's nuclear program may survive the strikes [9].

European allies remain divided. Macron has been the most vocal critic, while Germany's Merz has adopted a more cautious tone, saying he would "not lecture allies about international law" before heading to Washington [5]. Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been the most outspoken opponent, directly rejecting the legal basis for the war [4].

What Comes Next

The G7 call exposed the central tension of the current moment: Trump sees the war as already won, while America's closest allies see a crisis spiraling out of control.

The leaders agreed on one concrete step: establishing coordination to prepare for the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, including the possibility of escorting vessels when security conditions allow [3]. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News the Navy would escort oil tankers through the strait when "militarily possible" [24].

But the fundamental question — whether Iran is truly "about to surrender" or digging in for a protracted conflict — remains unanswered. The new supreme leader's first statement suggests the latter. Iran's continued ability to threaten global energy supplies through the Hormuz chokepoint gives it leverage that a surrendering nation does not typically possess. And with nuclear talks indefinitely suspended, the diplomatic off-ramp that was "within reach" just weeks ago now looks impossibly distant.

As one Al Jazeera analyst noted: "There is only one person who can decide to end the war on Iran" [25]. The question is whether that person is listening to the other six leaders on the call — or only to his own declaration of victory.