US Strikes Near Kharg Island as Trump Threatens Iran's Oil Network

On March 13, 2026 — Day 14 of what has become the largest military engagement in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq — President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces had "totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran's crown jewel, Kharg Island" [1]. More than 15 explosions rocked the island, sending thick columns of black smoke skyward as army defenses, the Joshen Sea Base, an airport control tower, and a helicopter hangar were reduced to rubble [2].

But what Trump chose not to strike may prove more consequential than what he did. The island's petroleum infrastructure — the export terminal through which 90% of Iran's crude oil flows, with a loading capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day and storage for 30 million barrels — was left untouched [3]. In its place, Trump issued an ultimatum: "Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision" [4].

That threat now hangs over an already shattered global energy market. Brent crude has surged past $100 per barrel, WTI crude hit $94.65 on March 9, and the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market shows no signs of abating [5].

A War That Began With Decapitation

The conflict traces back to February 28, 2026, when a coordinated U.S.-Israeli strike campaign assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, destroying his compound in what multiple sources describe as the opening salvo of the war [6]. The operation targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, missile sites, and military command infrastructure simultaneously.

The scope has been staggering. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that approximately 6,000 targets have been struck in Iran since operations began. More than 90 Iranian vessels, including over 30 mine-laying ships, have been damaged or destroyed [7]. On March 10, NPR reported that the Pentagon characterized the campaign as its "most intense day of strikes inside Iran" [8].

Iran's Health Ministry reports at least 1,444 people killed and 18,551 injured, with victims ranging in age from eight months to 88 years old [7]. A strike on an elementary school reportedly killed roughly 175 students, prompting an ongoing military investigation into whether a U.S. missile was responsible [9]. Iran says more than 10,000 civilian sites have been hit, including schools, hospitals, and cultural heritage sites.

The United States has also suffered losses. Six U.S. airmen were confirmed dead in a refueling plane crash during operations, and Iran has launched waves of drones and missiles targeting Gulf countries hosting American military assets [10].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

Kharg Island: The 'Orphan Pearl' at the Center of It All

To understand why Trump's ultimatum carries such weight, one must understand what Kharg Island represents. Located approximately 25 kilometers off Iran's southwest coast in the Persian Gulf and roughly 300 miles northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, the small island is described by Al Jazeera as "the beating heart of Iran's oil empire" [11].

First developed as an oil terminal in the 1960s under the Shah in partnership with American oil company Amoco, Kharg evolved into an infrastructure colossus [12]. Its surrounding deep waters — a rarity along Iran's otherwise shallow coastline — allow colossal supertankers to dock safely and load crude destined primarily for Asian markets, with China as the leading importer [3]. No other major oil-producing country is so reliant on a single facility; Kharg accounts for tens of billions of dollars in annual government revenue [12].

By striking military installations on the island while conspicuously sparing petroleum infrastructure, Trump executed what energy analysts describe as a calibrated escalation — demonstrating the capacity to destroy Iran's economic lifeline without yet pulling the trigger.

"Trump's comments will focus the market's mind on pathways that this energy disruption, already history's largest, could expand and last longer," said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group [4].

The Hormuz Stranglehold

Iran's response to the strikes has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil transit daily — roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade [13]. Within hours of the initial February 28 strikes, Iran transmitted radio warnings that no ships would be permitted to pass, leading to an immediate 70% reduction in traffic [14].

As of March 13, commercial maritime traffic through the strait remained effectively at a standstill, with no confirmed transits in either direction over the preceding 24 hours, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data [15]. On March 5, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the strait would remain closed to ships from the U.S., Israel, and their Western allies, though selective exceptions have been made — two Indian-flagged gas carriers and a Saudi oil tanker carrying 1 million barrels for India were permitted through [14].

The consequences have been immediate and far-reaching. With the strait closed, 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of other oil products remain stranded in the Gulf every day [14]. The International Energy Agency took the unprecedented step of releasing 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves [14]. Oil production from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE collectively dropped by a reported 10 million barrels per day as of March 12 [5].

Source: Bloomberg / IEA / CNBC reporting estimates

Data as of Mar 13, 2026CSV

The New Supreme Leader and Iran's Defiance

Into this maelstrom stepped Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, who was appointed Iran's new Supreme Leader on March 9 [16]. His ascension was itself a signal. Rather than selecting a more moderate figure who might pursue diplomatic off-ramps, Iran's political establishment chose a hardliner whose first public statement, issued on March 12 via state television — notably read by an anchor while a still photograph was displayed, with no video or audio of Khamenei himself released — vowed vengeance [17].

"The blood of your martyrs" and "the blood of our children" would be avenged, the statement declared, referencing the school strike that killed scores of children [17]. More ominously, the new supreme leader pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and to open "new fronts in the war where the enemy has little experience and is highly vulnerable" [16].

The IRGC has also escalated threats beyond the strait itself. On March 14, it informed the United Arab Emirates that American "hideouts" on Emirati soil are "legitimate targets" — a warning that could drag additional Gulf states deeper into the conflict [2].

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed that Mojtaba Khamenei may have been injured in subsequent strikes, though this remains unconfirmed [18].

A Global Economic Earthquake

The economic reverberations of the conflict constitute what analysts are calling the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market [5]. Brent crude peaked at approximately $120 per barrel on March 9, up from roughly $70 before the war began — a surge exceeding 70% [5]. WTI crude, tracked by FRED data, climbed from $66.96 on February 27 to $94.65 on March 9, with further increases likely given the Kharg Island strikes.

The damage extends well beyond oil. Roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, and urea prices at the New Orleans hub have surged from $475 to $680 per metric ton [14]. California gasoline prices have exceeded $5 per gallon [5]. Morgan Stanley and CSIS have warned of significant inflationary pressures rippling through global supply chains [19][20].

The International Energy Agency's release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest coordinated release ever — has done little to stem the price surge [14]. Chatham House noted that U.S. energy prices "were set to rise long before the Iran war," suggesting the conflict is compounding pre-existing structural vulnerabilities in global energy markets [21].

Congress Sidelined, Public Divided

The war has reignited fierce debate over constitutional war powers. The strikes were launched without prior congressional authorization, prompting immediate pushback from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle [22]. Members of Congress demanded swift votes on war powers resolutions, arguing that the scale of operations — thousands of targets struck, ground forces potentially at risk, a major regional war — far exceeded any reasonable interpretation of presidential self-defense authority [23].

The House narrowly rejected a resolution to halt the war, voting largely along party lines [24]. In the Senate, a measure co-sponsored by Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) calling for the removal of U.S. forces from hostilities failed 47-53 [25]. The Council on Foreign Relations assessed that Congress had effectively "declined to demand a say" in the conflict [25].

Public opinion, however, tells a different story. Polls show approximately three-fifths of Americans oppose the war [22]. The disconnect between public sentiment and congressional action underscores the structural difficulty of constraining military operations once they have begun.

The Diplomatic Void

Efforts at diplomacy have so far foundered. Oman, which had been mediating talks between the U.S. and Iran and reported that peace was "within reach" hours before the February 28 strikes, reaffirmed its call for an immediate ceasefire and described available "off-ramps" [26]. But Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as supreme leader is widely read as a rejection of those off-ramps.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian set terms for ending the war: recognition of Iran's "legitimate rights," payment of reparations, and "firm international guarantees against future aggression" [27]. These demands are unlikely to be met by the Trump administration, which has framed the conflict as a necessary dismantling of Iran's military capabilities.

China called the strikes "unacceptable" and demanded an "immediate ceasefire" [28]. Russia's President Putin condemned the assassination of Khamenei as "a murder committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law" [28]. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in a joint statement with France and Germany, condemned Iran's counter-strikes while calling for a "resumption of diplomacy" [28].

Trump himself said the war would end "soon," though he provided no timeline and Israel's leadership signaled "no time limit" on operations [29].

What Comes Next

The Kharg Island strikes represent a fork in the road. Trump has explicitly conditioned the survival of Iran's most vital economic asset on Iranian behavior regarding the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that Iran's new supreme leader has vowed to keep closed. The logic of escalation is stark: if Iran maintains the blockade, the administration has all but promised to destroy the oil infrastructure; if Iran relents, it concedes strategic leverage while under bombardment.

Energy analysts at CSIS warn that "what happens next" depends on whether either side can find a face-saving exit from what has become a mutually destructive standoff [20]. RAND Corporation experts note that the conflict has already exceeded the worst-case scenarios modeled by most defense planners [30].

With over 1,400 dead, 18,000 injured, oil above $100, strategic reserves being depleted at historic rates, and a new Iranian supreme leader pledging vengeance from behind a still photograph, the only certainty is that the most dangerous chapter of this conflict may still lie ahead.