IRGC Rejects Trump's War Timeline, Insists Iran Will Decide Conflict's End

As the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran enters its second week, a deepening clash over who controls the conflict's trajectory has emerged between Washington and Tehran — with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps delivering a blunt message to President Donald Trump: Iran, not America, will decide when this war is over.

The Spark: Trump's 'Short-Lived Conflict' Claim

On March 9, with Operation Epic Fury grinding through its eleventh day of strikes on Iranian territory, President Trump told reporters at a press conference that the conflict with Iran could prove to be "short-term" [1]. He floated a timeline of "four to five weeks" while simultaneously insisting the operation had "no time limit" — a contradiction that drew immediate scrutiny from both allies and adversaries [2].

The response from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was swift and unequivocal. "It is we who will determine the end of the war," an IRGC spokesperson declared. "The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war" [3]. The statement represented more than rhetorical bravado — it was a strategic communication designed to signal that Iran's military apparatus remains intact and capable of sustained resistance, despite devastating losses in the war's opening hours.

From Negotiations to Bombs: How Diplomacy Collapsed

The road to war was paved with failed diplomacy. Beginning in April 2025, the United States and Iran engaged in a series of indirect negotiations aimed at resolving the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. Trump had sent a letter to then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, setting a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement [4].

The talks, mediated by Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al-Busaidi, continued into 2026 with sessions held in Muscat, Oman on February 6 and again in late February [5]. But the core dispute — Iran's insistence on its right to enrich uranium versus America's demand for a complete halt — proved insurmountable. On February 26, the final round of talks concluded with no agreement. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said a "historic opportunity" was "within reach" to avert war, but Washington accused Tehran of offering "no flexibility" on enrichment [6].

Two days later, on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury — a coordinated barrage of airstrikes targeting military installations, government compounds, and key figures across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah [7]. Among the dead in the opening salvo: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, whose compound was destroyed in the initial wave [8].

A Dynasty Under Fire: Mojtaba Khamenei Takes Command

The killing of Ali Khamenei — the leader who had steered Iran's theocratic state for 35 years — created an immediate succession crisis that the regime moved quickly to resolve. On March 8, the 88-member Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the slain leader, as Iran's new Supreme Leader [9].

The selection was both predictable and significant. Mojtaba Khamenei, long suspected of wielding behind-the-scenes influence over Iran's security apparatus, represents a continuation of hardline ideology. The IRGC was among the first institutions to pledge allegiance, declaring its forces "prepared to fully obey and sacrifice for the divine commands" of the younger Khamenei [10].

Trump's response was characteristically provocative, calling the new supreme leader a "lightweight" and threatening he "would not last long without his approval" [2]. But analysts note that Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension consolidates hardliner control and all but eliminates the prospect of near-term negotiations — exactly the opposite of what Washington's "short war" framing would require.

An IRGC commander told state television that Iran is "capable of keeping up considerable attacks for at least six months" [10] — a timeline that stands in stark contrast to Trump's promised four-to-five-week campaign.

The Unconditional Surrender Problem

Perhaps nowhere is the gap between Trump's rhetoric and strategic reality more apparent than in his demand for Iran's "unconditional surrender." On March 6, Trump posted that there would be "no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" [11].

But the definition of what that means has shifted repeatedly. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Trump himself would "determine when Iran was in a state of unconditional surrender" — defining it as the moment when he, "as commander in chief," determines that Iran "no longer poses a threat" and "the goals of Operation Epic Fury" have been "fully realized" [12]. Trump later told Axios that unconditional surrender could mean "when they can't fight any longer because they don't have anyone or anything to fight with" [13].

This ambiguity has alarmed lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy stated it is "impossible to know" what the endgame is "because of the incoherence and incompetence of this administration" [12]. Arab and European officials have similarly told reporters they have not detected a coherent endgame, or whether one exists at all [14].

The shifting demands have drawn unfavorable comparisons. As CNN reported, "Trump's Iran war message" has been "marked by exaggerated threats and shifting, contradictory goals" — the public remains uncertain of what the president hopes to achieve because he "appears to be winging it and making up new justifications and objectives on the fly" [15].

The IRGC's Counter-Strategy: Hormuz as a Weapon

While Trump frames the conflict as a quick, decisive operation, the IRGC has deployed what may be its most potent asymmetric weapon: control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily — approximately 20% of global seaborne oil trade [16].

Within hours of the first strikes on February 28, the IRGC transmitted VHF radio warnings to vessels in the strait, declaring no ships would be permitted to pass. By March 2, a senior IRGC official confirmed the strait was officially closed [17]. Critically, Iran achieved this not with a traditional naval blockade but with cheap drones — a cost-effective strategy that has reduced tanker traffic to effectively zero [17].

The IRGC's warning was explicit: if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, Iran would not allow "one liter of oil" to be exported from the region [3]. The threat extended beyond Iran's own exports. Qatar declared force majeure on its gas exports after Iranian drone attacks, potentially disrupting 20% of global liquefied natural gas supplies [18].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 2, 2026CSV

The economic consequences have been severe. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel on March 8 — the first time in four years — with prices rising more than 30% from pre-war levels [18]. U.S. gasoline prices climbed to $3.48 per gallon, while diesel reached $4.66 [18]. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that every sustained 10% rise in oil prices results in 0.4% higher inflation and 0.15% lower global GDP growth [18].

Asian markets reacted sharply: Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 5%, South Korea's KOSPI dropped 6%, and European indices opened 2-3% lower [18].

The Human Cost

Behind the geopolitical maneuvering, the war has already exacted a mounting toll. As of March 8, seven U.S. service members have been killed and at least 18 seriously wounded [19]. The deadliest single incident came when an Iranian drone struck a port facility in Kuwait, killing five Army reservists and a sixth soldier [20]. Trump accompanied grieving families to Dover Air Force Base as the first remains returned to American soil [7].

The IRGC's defiant posture raises uncomfortable questions about the president's assertion of a brief conflict. Iran's retaliatory strikes have already hit Israeli targets, U.S. military bases throughout the Middle East, and even civilian infrastructure in Dubai and Abu Dhabi — after President Masoud Pezeshkian had pledged not to attack neighboring countries, the IRGC explicitly overruled him, with a spokesperson stating: "President Pezeshkian made a mistake... his comments were five hours ago, and since then Dubai and Abu Dhabi are being struck" [2].

A Divided World Watches

The international response has fractured along predictable lines. Russia condemned the strikes as "a deliberate, premeditated, and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state" [21]. China joined in criticizing the operation as a violation of the UN Charter [21].

European nations — France, Denmark, Greece, Latvia, and the United Kingdom — adopted a more calibrated position, placing blame on Iran for its nuclear activities and the January crackdown on protesters, while conspicuously avoiding any legal judgment on the U.S.-Israeli strikes [21].

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the escalation broadly, warning that the use of force by all parties "undermines international peace and security" [22]. But the Security Council took no formal action — a foregone conclusion given Washington's veto power [21].

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 10, 2026CSV

The Strategic Impasse

The fundamental tension at the heart of this conflict is one of asymmetric timelines. Trump needs the war to be short — politically, economically, and militarily. Rising oil prices threaten to accelerate inflation, erode consumer confidence, and derail an already fragile global recovery. Each American casualty intensifies domestic pressure. And the lack of a clear endgame invites comparisons to the open-ended military commitments that Trump himself campaigned against.

The IRGC, by contrast, has every incentive to extend the conflict. Iran's strategy relies on demonstrating that the costs of war — measured in oil-price spikes, regional instability, and American casualties — will outpace Washington's willingness to sustain the campaign. The Hormuz blockade is the centerpiece of this approach: a low-cost intervention with outsized global consequences.

As Foreign Policy noted, the conflict reveals that "the United States is still addicted to military conflict" — launching a war with objectives that remain undefined and an exit strategy that appears nonexistent [23]. The Soufan Center has highlighted that the U.S. "struggles with exit strategy" even as the battlefield dynamics grow more complex with each passing day [24].

The IRGC's declaration that Iran will "determine the end of the war" is not merely defiance for its own sake. It reflects a calculated bet that Trump's political constraints — midterm considerations, economic fallout, and the weight of mounting casualties — will force Washington to accept terms far short of unconditional surrender. Whether that bet proves correct may depend on how long the American public, and global energy markets, can absorb the costs of a war whose purpose its own architects struggle to articulate.

What Comes Next

As Operation Epic Fury enters its second full week, several critical questions remain unanswered. Can the IRGC sustain its Hormuz blockade indefinitely, or will the U.S. Navy find a way to reopen the strait? Will Mojtaba Khamenei consolidate his authority or face internal challenges? And most fundamentally: what would "winning" actually look like for either side?

Trump said on March 9 that he is "not close to deciding" on sending ground troops to Iran to secure nuclear stockpiles [25], suggesting the operation remains at the air-campaign stage. But the IRGC's capacity for asymmetric retaliation — demonstrated across Kuwait, the UAE, and the Strait of Hormuz — has already expanded the conflict far beyond what a "short-lived" war was supposed to entail.

The gap between Trump's declared timeline and the IRGC's strategic patience may ultimately define not just the outcome of this war, but the shape of the Middle East for a generation.