UK Afghan Resettlement Programs Projected to Cost £5.7 Billion by 2033

When the last British military transport lifted off from Kabul airport in August 2021, it marked the end of a 20-year campaign that cost 457 British lives and at least £22.7 billion in military spending [1]. But the financial ledger on Afghanistan was far from closed. A landmark National Audit Office report has now confirmed what many suspected: the UK's commitment to resettle Afghan allies, interpreters, and vulnerable citizens will cost taxpayers an additional £5.7 billion through 2032-33 — and the programme is plagued by poor data, housing shortages, and an uncertain path to completion [2].

The figure raises urgent questions about cost control, integration outcomes, and whether Britain is genuinely honouring its obligations or merely managing an expensive exercise in damage limitation.

The Numbers: Who Is Being Resettled and at What Cost

Between April 2021 and December 2025, 37,950 Afghan citizens arrived in the UK under three overlapping schemes: the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (ARAP), the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme (ACRS), and the more recently created Afghan Response Route (ARR) [2][3].

Of the £5.7 billion total projected cost, £3.1 billion has already been spent, with a further £2.6 billion to be incurred through 2032-33 [2]. The NAO's analysis breaks the spending into four major categories:

• Transitional accommodation: £1.6 billion
• Integration costs (healthcare, education, language training, benefits): £1.3 billion
• Pre-arrival support (processing, third-country hosting, transport): £1.2 billion
• Settled accommodation: £0.8 billion

Source: National Audit Office

Data as of Mar 19, 2026CSV

At roughly £150,000 per person — or approximately £600,000 per family of four — the per-capita cost is striking [4]. By comparison, the Syrian Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme, which resettled approximately 20,000 Syrians between 2014 and 2020, allocated around £21,060 per recipient in overseas development assistance alone [5]. The Homes for Ukraine scheme operated on an even leaner model, offering sponsors £350 per month with a one-off £200 arrival payment to refugees themselves — though this relied heavily on private hospitality rather than state-provided housing [5].

The disparity reflects fundamentally different programme architectures. The Afghan schemes have required the government to directly source, fund, and manage accommodation on a scale the Syrian and Ukrainian programmes largely avoided by leveraging community sponsorship and private hosting.

Year-by-Year Trajectory: From Emergency to Enduring Commitment

The programme's timeline reveals how an emergency evacuation morphed into a decade-long fiscal commitment. The initial surge in 2021-22 was dominated by Operation Pitting — the chaotic Kabul airlift — and the subsequent housing of thousands in bridging hotels at a peak cost of approximately £1 million per day [6].

The government announced in March 2023 that all bridging hotels would close by autumn of that year, but the transition proved rocky. By August 2023, 188 Afghan households had been recorded in temporary accommodation under homelessness duties in England, with 341 families still in interim hotel accommodation [6]. The NAO found that homelessness among resettled Afghans was higher than anticipated, a direct consequence of the national housing shortage colliding with programme timelines [2].

Key milestones in the programme's projected arc:

• July 2025: Schemes closed to new applicants
• March 2029: Target for completing all resettlement arrivals
• December 2029: Target for moving all individuals from transitional to settled accommodation
• 2032-33: Full programme wind-down, with final integration support payments ending

The closure to new applicants in July 2025 came with a notable statistic: 29,655 people were still awaiting eligibility decisions as of November 2025 [2]. An estimated 9,000 additional arrivals were expected, suggesting the final resettled population could approach 47,000.

The 95% Rejection Rate and Those Left Behind

One of the most contentious aspects of the programme is the fate of those who applied but were turned away. Around 95% of ARAP applications were found ineligible [7], a rejection rate that has drawn fierce criticism from veterans' organisations and legal advocates. The government cited this high rejection rate as partial justification for closing the schemes, arguing they had "largely met their goal" [7].

But the picture on the ground tells a different story. Thousands of Afghan nationals — including former interpreters, security guards, and locally employed staff — remain in Afghanistan or in precarious situations in third countries, particularly Pakistan. The JUSTICE legal charity has called on the government to "double down on efforts to relocate Afghans who supported Britain" [8].

In Pakistan, the situation became particularly dire. Afghan families awaiting UK resettlement spent six to twelve months in hotels, their Pakistani visas expired, their children denied access to state education, and many effectively confined indoors due to safety threats [7]. What was designed as a transitory arrangement became, in the words of one parliamentary briefing, an "indefinite limbo."

ARAP eligibility is restricted to those who were directly employed by or worked alongside UK forces in exposed or meaningful roles. The ACRS, designed for a broader category of vulnerable Afghans, operated through three pathways: evacuees already in the UK, UNHCR referrals, and those identified by the UK government as particularly at risk. The ARR was created specifically to address individuals compromised by a 2022 Ministry of Defence data breach that exposed the personal details of over 18,700 ARAP applicants [9].

Administrative Chaos: The NAO's Damning Assessment

The NAO's findings go beyond cost figures to expose structural dysfunction. The auditors found that the programme suffered from "poor data on individuals and their needs" that "continues to hinder planning" despite a consolidation of schemes in 2024 [2][4]. Cross-government information sharing was limited, management oversight was weak, and the fragmented structure across departments — primarily the Home Office, Ministry of Defence, and Department for Levelling Up — "persisted longer than necessary" [4].

Perhaps most damning, the NAO reported that the MoD could not provide the exact cost of the Afghanistan Response Route, the scheme created after its own data breach [9]. The auditors stated they had "not been provided with sufficient evidence to give us confidence regarding the completeness and accuracy of these estimates" [10].

The administrative costs embedded within the £5.7 billion remain opaque. While the headline breakdown separates accommodation from integration spending, the proportion consumed by Home Office processing, MoD administration, and cross-departmental coordination has not been clearly disaggregated. This lack of transparency makes meaningful comparison with international programmes difficult.

International Comparison: Is Britain an Outlier?

The UK reports the highest per-head refugee hosting costs among OECD Development Assistance Committee countries — over 30% higher than Ireland (the second most expensive) and 150% higher than the next highest G7 country, Canada [5]. UK spending on in-donor refugee costs surged from £410 million in 2016 to £4.27 billion in 2023, consuming 28% of the aid budget before falling to £2.83 billion in 2024 [11].

Source: House of Commons Library

Data as of Mar 19, 2026CSV

Canada's Resettlement Assistance Program provides government-assisted refugees with income support equivalent to social assistance rates for up to one year, with accommodation costs averaging C$140 per night during initial reception [12]. Australia spent A$12 billion on its broader refugee and asylum system from 2012 to 2024, though this figure encompasses offshore processing and detention — a fundamentally different model [13]. Germany, which accepted over a million asylum seekers in 2015-16, does not publish a directly comparable per-person resettlement figure, but municipal-level studies have estimated annual costs of €12,000-€20,000 per refugee [5].

The comparison is imperfect — different countries structure support differently — but the pattern is clear: the UK's Afghan programme is exceptionally expensive by any international benchmark.

The Integration Question: Employment, Language, and Self-Sufficiency

The £5.7 billion projection rests on assumptions about how quickly resettled Afghans will achieve economic self-sufficiency. The evidence so far is sobering.

Government data shows that fewer than 3 in 100 resettled refugees of working age were in employment during their first year in the UK [14]. After two years, roughly 1 in 5 had found work, though the majority were in part-time and elementary occupations. Only 4% of resettled refugees reported English as their main language, with older women — particularly those over 65 — showing the lowest proficiency levels [14].

Councils supporting Afghan families receive a tariff of £24,110 per person over three years for integration costs, including £4,500 per child for education and £850 per adult for English language provision [15]. Whether these sums are adequate to achieve meaningful integration within the projected timeline is an open question.

The NAO called for "clearer integration success metrics" and warned that the government's scenario planning was insufficient [2]. If employment rates remain low and benefit dependency persists beyond the programme's 2033 end date, the costs will not simply stop — they will transfer to mainstream welfare, housing, and healthcare budgets. The £5.7 billion figure, in other words, may be a floor rather than a ceiling.

The £22.7 Billion Shadow: Military Spending and Moral Obligation

The resettlement cost cannot be understood in isolation from the military campaign that created the obligation. UK operations in Afghanistan — spanning Operations Herrick, Toral, and Pitting — cost £22.7 billion in cash terms, or approximately £32.8 billion in 2024-25 prices [1]. Costs peaked at £5.6 billion in a single year (2009-10) before declining sharply after the end of combat operations in 2014 [1].

The £5.7 billion resettlement bill therefore represents roughly 25% of the military cost — or 17% when adjusted for inflation. Veterans' organisations, including the Sulha Alliance which advocates for former Afghan interpreters, argue this is the minimum price of honouring commitments made to people who risked their lives alongside British troops [8][16].

International law does not establish a clear-cut obligation to resettle locally employed staff after a military withdrawal. But legal scholars have increasingly invoked fiduciary duty — the obligation of a party with power over another to act in their interest — as a framework for understanding the relationship between Western militaries and their local allies [17]. From a Just War theory perspective, having failed to achieve war objectives, states should not leave those who assisted them in a worse position than before.

The question of whether Britain's current schemes meet this standard is contested. The 95% ARAP rejection rate, the tens of thousands still awaiting decisions, and the closure of schemes while processing backlogs remain suggest the answer is: not yet.

Opportunity Cost: Housing, the NHS, and the Domestic Squeeze

Critics point to stark domestic comparisons. England's social housing waiting list reached 1.34 million households in March 2025 — the highest since 2014 [18]. The cost to build homes for every household on the list has been estimated at £205 billion [18]. At current construction costs, £5.7 billion could theoretically fund approximately 25,000-30,000 social housing units — a meaningful but modest dent in the crisis.

The £1.52 billion allocated from the defence budget for Afghan resettlement between 2025-26 and 2028-29 is not additional funding but comes from within the existing defence spending envelope [10]. This means every pound spent on resettlement is a pound not spent on military modernisation, equipment procurement, or force readiness — at a time when European security concerns are at their highest since the Cold War.

Fiscal conservatives have argued that the programme's costs should be capped and that integration support should be time-limited with clearer conditionality. Opposition voices have questioned whether the ARR — created to address the MoD's own data breach — represents an open-ended liability that could set precedents for future compensation schemes.

Defenders of the programme counter that the comparison is misleading. International obligations, moral commitments to wartime allies, and the UK's global reputation are not fungible with housing budgets. The cost of abandoning those who served alongside British forces — in terms of credibility, future recruitment of local partners in conflict zones, and simple moral standing — is real even if it doesn't appear on a balance sheet.

What Happens Next

The programme now enters its most challenging phase. With schemes closed to new applicants but nearly 30,000 pending decisions and an estimated 9,000 more arrivals expected, the government must simultaneously process a backlog, find housing in a market with chronic undersupply, and deliver integration support that produces measurable outcomes.

The NAO has recommended scenario planning for different demand levels, closer monitoring of housing time limits, and transparent reporting on integration metrics [2]. Whether the government can deliver on these recommendations — while managing a programme that has already demonstrated significant cost overruns, data failures, and administrative fragmentation — will determine whether the £5.7 billion delivers on Britain's promise, or becomes another chapter in the long, costly, and morally fraught aftermath of the Afghan war.

The fundamental tension is not new, but its price tag makes it impossible to ignore: in an era of constrained public finances, how does a democracy balance its international obligations against domestic needs? The Afghan resettlement programme is, in the end, both a fiscal question and a moral one. The answer Britain gives will echo far beyond the spreadsheets.