Pakistan Suspends Afghanistan Airstrikes During Eid Holiday
TL;DR
Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to a five-day pause in hostilities for Eid al-Fitr, brokered by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, after nearly a month of open warfare that has killed hundreds — including a disputed strike on a Kabul rehabilitation hospital — and displaced over 115,000 people. The ceasefire, conditioned on no cross-border provocations, offers a slim diplomatic opening but faces deep structural obstacles rooted in Pakistan's demand that the Taliban neutralize TTP militants operating from Afghan soil.
On March 18, 2026, Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced a "temporary pause" in military operations against Afghanistan, timed to the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr . Hours later, the Taliban government confirmed it would reciprocate. The five-day window — running from midnight Thursday through midnight Tuesday — arrives after nearly a month of the most intense fighting between the two nuclear-armed neighbor and its war-hardened counterpart in modern history, a conflict that has killed hundreds of people, displaced over 115,000, and drawn global condemnation .
But the pause comes with a caveat that underscores its fragility. "In case of any cross-border attack, drone attack or any terrorist incident inside Pakistan, [operations] shall immediately resume with renewed intensity," Tarar warned .
How It Started: The February 21 Strikes
The current crisis traces its origins to the night of February 21–22, 2026, when Pakistan Air Force jets struck seven targets across Afghanistan's Nangarhar, Paktika, and Khost provinces between 11:45 p.m. and 12:15 a.m. . Pakistan's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting described the raids as "intelligence-based selective targeting" of camps and hideouts linked to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) .
Islamabad framed the strikes as retaliation for a string of deadly terrorist attacks inside Pakistan — in Islamabad, Bajaur, and Bannu — that it attributed to TTP operatives sheltering on Afghan soil . The justification was not new: Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan of harboring TTP militants who use its territory as a launchpad for cross-border violence. In 2025 alone, violence attributed to the TTP killed more than 1,200 Pakistanis, more than double the 2021 figure .
The Taliban government categorically denied the allegations and called the strikes a "blatant violation of Afghanistan's national sovereignty" and a "clear breach of international law" .
Rapid Escalation to "Open War"
What began as targeted raids quickly spiraled. By February 26, the Taliban announced "large-scale offensive operations" against Pakistani military positions along the 2,640-kilometer Durand Line . Afghan sources claimed 10 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 13 outposts captured in retaliatory attacks .
Pakistan's response was swift and devastating. On February 27, Pakistani warplanes bombed targets in Kabul and Kandahar — the first strikes on major Afghan urban centers — prompting Defense Minister Khawaja Asif to declare that Pakistan was now in "open war" with Afghanistan .
The conflict rapidly expanded into a multi-front confrontation involving airstrikes, artillery barrages, drone operations, and ground clashes at multiple points along the border . The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) confirmed that at least 42 civilians were killed and 104 injured in just the first six days of fighting, with casualties caused by indirect fire and airstrikes across the provinces of Paktia, Paktika, Nangarhar, Kunar, and Khost .
The Kabul Hospital Strike: A Turning Point
The deadliest single incident of the conflict — and the event that likely catalyzed the ceasefire — occurred on March 16, when the Omar Addiction Treatment Hospital in Kabul was destroyed during overnight airstrikes .
The casualty figures remain bitterly contested. Afghanistan's Interior Ministry spokesman Abdul Mateen Qani reported 408 people killed and 265 wounded . The United Nations, conducting its own verification, recorded 143 deaths — a significant figure but substantially lower than Kabul's claim . The Norwegian Refugee Council reported that its staff who visited the site the following morning "found hundreds of civilians dead and injured" .
Pakistan "strongly refuted and rejected" allegations it targeted the hospital. Information Minister Tarar told Al Jazeera that Pakistan "only targeted terrorist infrastructure and military locations" . Islamabad has characterized Afghanistan's casualty figures as propaganda designed to generate international sympathy.
The gap between the UN count of 143 and Afghanistan's claim of 408 underscores the profound difficulty of verifying casualty figures in an active conflict zone where both sides have strong incentives to shape the narrative .
Afghan authorities held a mass funeral in Kabul two days later, images from which circulated widely on social media and amplified international pressure for a cessation of hostilities .
The Humanitarian Toll
The conflict has inflicted severe humanitarian damage on a country already facing one of the world's worst aid crises.
As of early March, an estimated 115,000 people in Afghanistan and approximately 3,000 in Pakistan had been displaced by the fighting . The Norwegian Refugee Council documented 826 homes damaged or destroyed, with 103 completely demolished. More than 20 health facilities suspended operations, and five health centers were directly damaged by airstrikes and shelling .
Ten Afghan provinces have been affected: Kabul, Kandahar, Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Parwan, Paktia, and Paktika . Border crossings at Torkham and Bahramcha — critical arteries for humanitarian aid — were suspended due to security concerns, strangling the delivery of assistance at exactly the moment needs were surging .
The World Food Programme temporarily halted food distributions. In Khost province alone, 626 children lost access to education after 21 NRC-run classes were shut down . Displaced families reported losing access to clean water and medical services, with many forced into makeshift camps or unaffordable substandard shelters.
The crisis compounds Afghanistan's existing displacement emergency. More than five million returnees have been recorded over the past two years, including 2.6 million in 2025 alone, many of them Afghans expelled from Pakistan .
The Legal Battleground
Pakistan's cross-border campaign has ignited a fierce legal debate. Islamabad invokes Article 51 of the UN Charter — the inherent right of self-defense — arguing that the TTP's cross-border attacks constitute armed attacks justifying a military response .
International law scholars are divided. The key legal question centers on whether Pakistan can lawfully invoke the "unwilling or unable" doctrine — the argument that because the Taliban government is either unwilling or unable to prevent TTP attacks from its territory, Pakistan is entitled to act unilaterally .
Critics note a glaring contradiction: Pakistan has historically condemned identical justifications when used by other states. When India conducted airstrikes against targets inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir in 2019, Islamabad labeled them "acts of aggression" and violations of sovereignty. Pakistan's current actions, critics argue, mirror the very logic it once rejected .
The Taliban government has lodged formal complaints with the UN Security Council, demanding an end to violations, an investigation, accountability, and "full compliance with international law" . However, the Taliban's limited international recognition — formally acknowledged only by Russia as of July 2025 — weakens its diplomatic leverage considerably .
The TTP Question: The Conflict's Root Cause
At the heart of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict lies a fundamentally irreconcilable disagreement over the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
Pakistan maintains that TTP operatives have planned and executed more than 600 attacks on Pakistani security forces from Afghan soil since 2015 . The surge in TTP violence — from roughly 500 Pakistani deaths in 2021 to over 1,200 in 2025 — provides statistical evidence of a worsening threat .
The Taliban government's position is more complex. While publicly denying that it harbors the TTP, the Taliban shares deep ideological and historical ties with the group. The TTP emerged after 2001 from Pakistani jihadists who fought alongside the Afghan Taliban against U.S. forces. Senior Fellow Daniel Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations observes that the Taliban views the TTP as partners, not adversaries, creating a structural impasse: "Pakistan views TTP as irreconcilable enemies while the Taliban sees them as partners" .
A Qatar-mediated ceasefire in October 2025 temporarily halted the deadliest cross-border clashes of that year, but subsequent negotiations collapsed by year's end, with both sides accusing the other of bad faith .
Diplomacy Behind the Eid Pause
The Eid ceasefire was brokered by a trio of regional powers: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey . All three had previously helped negotiate the October 2025 ceasefire, giving them institutional familiarity with the conflict's dynamics.
Turkey publicly welcomed the agreement, with Ankara positioning itself as a key mediator . Qatar expressed hope that the pause "will pave the way for a return to a sustainable ceasefire agreement" . China, which has $65 billion invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and deep strategic interests in regional stability, has also been conducting backchannel diplomacy to facilitate dialogue .
The synchronized announcements from Islamabad and Kabul suggest substantial behind-the-scenes negotiation . However, Pakistan has signaled little appetite for broader talks. The Diplomat reported in March that "Pakistan's military campaign in Afghanistan is here to stay," reflecting a view within Islamabad's security establishment that only sustained military pressure will compel the Taliban to act against the TTP .
Can the Pause Hold?
The prospects for the Eid ceasefire evolving into a durable peace are uncertain at best.
The structural dynamics that produced the conflict remain unchanged. Pakistan continues to demand that the Taliban dismantle TTP infrastructure on Afghan soil — a demand the Taliban shows no willingness to meet. The Taliban, for its part, has signaled openness to dialogue but refuses to abandon or pressure the TTP .
Both sides have strong domestic incentives to resume fighting. For Pakistan's military establishment, the campaign has become a matter of national security credibility. For the Taliban, any concession on the TTP would fracture internal cohesion and undermine its claim to govern Afghan territory free of external coercion.
CSIS analyst Alexander Palmer has warned that an expanded conflict could increase threats from ISIS and al-Qaeda to broader international interests, adding a geopolitical dimension that extends well beyond the bilateral dispute .
India's position adds another layer of complexity. New Delhi has gradually improved its relations with the Taliban since 2021, reopening its Kabul embassy, and has been the most prominent international voice condemning Pakistan's strikes — a stance that reflects India's own long-standing rivalry with Islamabad as much as concern for Afghan civilians .
What Comes Next
The five-day Eid pause represents less a diplomatic breakthrough than a brief humanitarian reprieve. The conditions Pakistan has attached — immediate resumption if any cross-border incident occurs — make the ceasefire inherently brittle. A single TTP attack, whether sanctioned by the Taliban or not, could shatter it.
For the 115,000 displaced Afghans sheltering in makeshift camps, for the families who buried their dead at the Kabul mass funeral, and for the communities along the Durand Line living under the shadow of airstrikes, the pause offers a few days of quiet in what has become the most dangerous period in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations in decades.
Whether those days become the foundation for something more durable depends on whether Islamabad and Kabul can bridge a gap that has, so far, proven impossible to close: the future of the TTP on Afghan soil.
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Sources (18)
- [1]Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to temporary Eid al-Fitr 'pause' in conflictaljazeera.com
Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to temporarily suspend fighting during Eid al-Fitr, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey requesting the pause. Pakistan warned operations would resume if any cross-border attack occurred.
- [2]Pakistan and Afghanistan announce temporary pause in fightingcbc.ca
Both countries announced a temporary pause in fighting ahead of Eid al-Fitr, days after dozens were killed at a Kabul drug rehabilitation hospital.
- [3]Afghanistan and Pakistan announce a temporary pause in fighting ahead of Muslim holidaybostonherald.com
The pause runs from midnight Thursday through midnight Tuesday, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar mediating the agreement.
- [4]2026 Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistanwikipedia.org
Pakistan carried out airstrikes on February 21-22 in Nangarhar, Paktika, and Khost provinces, targeting TTP and ISIS-K militant camps, sparking a broader armed conflict.
- [5]Pakistan says it is now in 'open war' with Afghanistan after cross-border strikesnpr.org
Pakistan declared open war with Afghanistan as fighting expanded from targeted strikes to a broader cross-border confrontation involving airstrikes, artillery, and drone incidents.
- [6]Why Are the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan in an 'Open War'?cfr.org
CFR analysis exploring the TTP's role, Pakistan's grievances, Taliban's refusal to act against TTP, and diplomatic efforts by China, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
- [7]Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict: Self-defense or sovereignty violation?dailysabah.com
Analysis of Pakistan's Article 51 self-defense claim versus Afghanistan's sovereignty arguments, including the 'unwilling or unable' doctrine debate.
- [8]Afghanistan launches attacks against Pakistan, draws 'immediate response'aljazeera.com
Taliban announced large-scale offensive operations along the Durand Line, claiming 10 Pakistani soldiers killed and 13 outposts captured in retaliatory attacks.
- [9]Pakistan Declares Open War on Afghan Taliban: Airstrikes Hammer Kabul and Kandaharmilitary.com
Pakistani warplanes bombed Kabul and Kandahar in a dramatic escalation, with Defense Minister declaring 'open war' on Afghanistan.
- [10]Air attacks on Kabul push Pakistan-Taliban crisis into uncharted territoryaljazeera.com
Pakistani air attacks on Kabul marked an unprecedented escalation, pushing the decades-old relationship between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban into uncharted territory.
- [11]Afghanistan Situation Update: Humanitarian Impact of Afghanistan-Pakistan Military Escalationunocha.org
OCHA reported 115,000 displaced in Afghanistan and 3,000 in Pakistan, with border crossings suspended and humanitarian access severely restricted.
- [12]Afghanistan says Pakistan hit Kabul rehab center killing 408, Islamabad rejects claimcnn.com
Afghanistan accused Pakistan of striking the Omar Addiction Treatment Hospital in Kabul, killing 408 people. Pakistan denied targeting the facility.
- [13]UN revises Kabul rehab strike toll as Pakistan denies targeting civiliansaljazeera.com
The UN recorded 143 deaths at the Kabul rehabilitation center, significantly lower than Afghanistan's figure of 408, highlighting the difficulty of verifying casualty figures.
- [14]Afghanistan-Pakistan: Civilians paying highest price for escalating conflictnrc.no
NRC reported 115,000 displaced, 826 homes damaged, 20+ health facilities suspended, and 10 provinces affected by the conflict.
- [15]Pakistan's Airstrikes in Afghanistan: Aggression or Self-Defense?fairobserver.com
Analysis of Pakistan's legal justification under Article 51, noting Pakistan has invoked the same self-defense logic it previously condemned when used by India.
- [16]Afghanistan Vows Measured Response to Pakistan's Airstrikesglobalsecurity.com
Afghanistan's Ministry of Defense called the strikes a 'blatant violation of national sovereignty' and a 'clear breach' of international law.
- [17]Türkiye welcomes Afghanistan-Pakistan Eid ceasefire after weeks of deadly clashesturkiyetoday.com
Turkey welcomed the ceasefire it helped broker alongside Qatar and Saudi Arabia after weeks of escalating cross-border violence.
- [18]Pakistan's Military Campaign in Afghanistan Is Here to Staythediplomat.com
Analysis arguing that Pakistan's security establishment views sustained military pressure as the only way to compel the Taliban to act against TTP.
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