Trump Declares Iran Hostilities Terminated After Rejecting Iranian Deal; Tehran Warns Conflict Could Resume

On May 1, 2026, President Donald Trump sent identical letters to House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate President Chuck Grassley declaring that "the hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated" [1][2]. The timing was not coincidental. That date marked the 60-day threshold under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, after which a president must obtain congressional authorization to continue military operations — or withdraw forces within 30 days [3].

In the same 48-hour window, the administration rejected an Iranian peace proposal that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping while deferring nuclear negotiations to a later stage [4]. Iran's response was blunt: Foreign Ministry officials warned that conflict was "likely" to restart [5].

The result is a diplomatic and constitutional standoff with no clear resolution — and a global economy still reeling from the largest disruption to energy markets since the 1970s oil crises [6].

Sixty-Three Days of War

The U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran began on February 28, 2026, with strikes targeting nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and IRGC military infrastructure [7]. Over the following five weeks, the conflict expanded to include Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in the region and on neighboring Gulf states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait [8].

By the time a ceasefire took hold on April 7–8, the human cost was substantial. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) documented 3,636 deaths in Iran from strikes, including 1,701 civilians, 1,221 military personnel, and 714 unclassified [7]. At least 13 U.S. service members were killed and 381 wounded in the 40 days of active combat [9]. The conflict also spilled into Lebanon, where fighting between Hezbollah and Israel killed more than 2,000 civilians and militants, and into Iraq, where at least 117 people were killed and 361 injured [7].

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's oil and significant LNG volumes normally transit — triggered the sharpest oil price spike in decades [6]. Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on March 8 for the first time in four years, peaking near $126. Physical crude prices at spot markets climbed as high as $150 per barrel [6].

Source: FRED / EIA

Data as of Apr 27, 2026CSV

WTI crude oil prices rose from roughly $63 in late February to a peak above $114 in early April, a gain of more than 80% — reflecting the severity of the supply disruption [10]. Even after the April ceasefire and partial strait reopening, prices remained near $100 per barrel as of late April [10].

The Strait of Hormuz: From Highway to Chokepoint

Before the conflict, approximately 3,000 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz each month, carrying an estimated 15 million barrels per day of crude oil — about one-fifth of global supply [6]. In March 2026, with Iran's blockade in effect, that number collapsed to just 154 vessels for the entire month [11].

Source: CNN / Lloyd's List

Data as of Apr 29, 2026CSV

The economic consequences rippled far beyond oil. Up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers normally transit the strait, along with significant volumes of methanol, aluminum, sulfur, and graphite [12]. War risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the strait surged from a pre-crisis norm of 0.02–0.05% of hull value to 0.5–1% or higher — turning a $40,000 premium for a $120 million tanker into a $600,000 to $1.2 million charge per transit [13]. Hapag-Lloyd imposed a War Risk Surcharge of $1,500 per standard container [14]. Shipments rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope added 10–15 days to transit times [14].

Even after Iran partially reopened the strait in mid-April, only about 620 vessels crossed in the remainder of the month, a fraction of pre-war traffic [11].

The Rejected Deal

Iran's proposal, conveyed through intermediaries and described publicly by a senior Iranian official, contained three main elements [4][15]:

1. Strait of Hormuz: Iran would reopen the waterway to all international shipping.
2. U.S. blockade: Washington would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
3. Security guarantee: The U.S. and Israel would commit to not attacking Iran again.

The central innovation — and the element Washington found unacceptable — was that nuclear talks would be "postponed until after the war ends" and addressed in a separate, later negotiation [4]. Iran also sought recognition of its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, even if it agreed to suspend enrichment temporarily [4].

Trump told reporters he was "not satisfied" with the terms: "They're asking for things that I can't agree to. At this moment there will never be a deal unless they agree that there will never be nuclear weapons" [15]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a more measured assessment, telling Fox News the proposal was "better than what we thought they were going to submit" but that "we have to ensure that any deal that is made definitely prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon" [15].

A senior U.S. official told Axios that accepting the proposal would "remove a key piece of American leverage" — the naval blockade — without addressing the core nuclear question [16].

The Constitutional Question

Trump's May 1 letter to Congress argued that because no shots had been exchanged since April 7, the 60-day clock under the War Powers Resolution was moot. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reinforced this, claiming the clock "pauses or stops" during a ceasefire [3][17].

Constitutional scholars and several lawmakers disagreed. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) said: "There's no pause button in the Constitution, or the War Powers Act" [3]. Democratic members of the House Foreign Affairs, Armed Services, and Intelligence Committees issued a joint statement arguing that "hostilities have not ceased; both sides are enforcing naval blockades through military force" [1].

The Senate voted 47–50 on April 30 to block a war powers resolution that would have forced Trump to end — or seek authorization for — military action [3]. Two Republicans broke with their party: Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who said "the president's authority as commander in chief is not without limits," and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky [3]. Several other Republican senators — Todd Young (IN), John Curtis (UT), Thom Tillis (NC), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Josh Hawley (MO) — expressed varying degrees of discomfort with presidential overreach but stopped short of voting with Democrats [3].

Murkowski announced she would introduce a separate measure to formally authorize the war if the White House did not produce a "credible plan" within a week [3].

Trump himself suggested the War Powers Resolution is unconstitutional: "Every other president considered it totally unconstitutional, and we agree with that" [3]. His letter simultaneously acknowledged that "the threat posed by Iran to the United States and our Armed Forces remains significant" — a concession that critics said undermined the claim that hostilities had truly ended [1][2].

JCPOA Echoes: The Sequencing Problem

The dispute over whether to lift economic pressure before or after nuclear concessions has defined every round of U.S.-Iran diplomacy for over a decade.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) followed a sequence: Iran implemented nuclear constraints — reducing centrifuges, shipping out enriched uranium, modifying a plutonium reactor — and the IAEA verified compliance. Only then did sanctions relief take effect, on January 16, 2016 [18]. The deal's supporters credited this phased approach with producing the most intrusive nuclear inspections regime ever applied to any country [19].

Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, reimposing sanctions under a "maximum pressure" campaign that failed to bring Iran back to the table on more favorable terms. Instead, Iran steadily expanded its enrichment capacity, moving from the 3.67% limit allowed under the JCPOA to 60% purity — and, according to IAEA reports, accumulating enough enriched material to produce multiple weapons if further enriched [19].

The current administration has proposed a framework that would prohibit enrichment on Iranian soil entirely, with uranium processing moved to neighboring countries under international oversight [18]. Arms control experts at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation have argued that this demand is unrealistic and that a return to JCPOA-style constraints remains "the only responsible pathway to verifiably constrain Iran's nuclear program" [19].

The steelman case for Trump's rejection rests on the argument that Iran's proposal deliberately sidestepped the nuclear question. By reopening the strait and securing blockade relief without committing to any enrichment limits, Iran would have pocketed concessions while retaining its most significant bargaining chip — and the implicit threat of a nuclear breakout — for indefinite future talks [16]. Nonproliferation hawks argue this would have legitimized what they characterize as Iranian hostage-taking with global energy supplies [16].

Power Struggles in Tehran

The war has reshaped Iran's internal politics. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes on February 28, and his son Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded the same day [20]. Mojtaba formally assumed the role of Supreme Leader but has not appeared in public and communicates through IRGC intermediaries. He operates, according to reporting by Time, "as one voice within a broader consensus-building process" rather than as an unchallenged authority [20].

Real power has consolidated within a military-security core led by IRGC figures [21]. Two factions within this core are competing over Iran's direction:

Pragmatist hardliners, led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, view diplomacy as a tool to be deployed alongside military pressure. Ghalibaf has defended indirect talks with the United States, drawing accusations of "betrayal" from the ideological right [22].

Ideologues aligned with the Stability Front (Jebhe-ye Paydari) and figures like IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi and SNSC Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr are described as favoring continued conflict. They interpret diplomatic flexibility as capitulation and have attacked Ghalibaf on state-affiliated media [21][22].

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's announcement about reopening the strait in April triggered immediate pushback from hardline media, revealing how constrained Iran's diplomatic space has become [20]. The factional balance remains unstable, and the rejection of Tehran's proposal strengthens the position of those who argue that negotiation with Washington is futile.

Third-Party Alignments

If conflict resumes, the alignment of regional and global powers will matter considerably.

Israel has been a direct combatant alongside the United States since February 28 and would almost certainly resume military operations [7].

Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar — were targets of Iranian retaliatory strikes during the conflict. Qatar shot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers, the first such engagement by a Gulf state [7]. These countries have been drawn into the conflict as targets rather than by choice, and their posture in a renewed round of fighting would depend on whether Iran again fires on their territory.

Russia condemned U.S.-Israeli strikes and provided intelligence support to Iran, including data on U.S. military positions, according to reports tracked by the Washington Institute [23]. Russia coordinated with China at the UN Security Council, where both countries vetoed a draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz on April 7 [8][23]. However, Russia committed no troops and engaged in no direct combat operations [23].

China abstained on the UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran's attacks on neighbors, criticizing the resolution for not "fully reflecting the root cause and overall picture of the conflict in a balanced manner" [8]. China dispatched a special envoy for mediation but made no military commitments [23]. No formal treaty or defense obligation would compel either Russia or China to intervene militarily on Iran's behalf.

What Comes Next

The ceasefire that began April 7 holds, but without a deal, its durability is uncertain. Iran continues to restrict most non-Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [15]. The U.S. maintains its naval blockade of Iranian ports [15]. Insurance premiums remain elevated, oil prices sit near $100 per barrel, and rerouted shipping continues to add costs and delays across global supply chains [13][14].

Congress has so far failed to assert its constitutional authority. Trump's "terminated" declaration resets the War Powers clock, and unless a bipartisan coalition forms — a prospect made unlikely by the 47–50 Senate vote — the administration retains a free hand to resume operations at any time [3].

In Tehran, the IRGC's dominance of decision-making means that diplomatic initiatives require buy-in from commanders who have spent the past two months absorbing strikes and may prefer escalation to compromise [21]. The rejection of the strait proposal removes the most concrete path to de-escalation that either side had produced.

The question is whether Trump's insistence on nuclear concessions before economic relief — a sequencing that has never produced a durable agreement with Iran — will yield a different result under wartime conditions, or whether both sides are settling into a frozen conflict with a ceasefire that neither fully trusts and neither is willing to formalize.