Key Races Set for Tuesday's California Primary, Including Governor's Contest

California's June 3 primary is the most consequential election day the state has seen in years. With Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited, 61 candidates are competing for the chance to lead the nation's most populous state. Billions of dollars in congressional races are at stake under newly redrawn district maps. And the results will offer the clearest test yet of whether Republican gains among Latino and suburban voters represent a lasting realignment or a one-cycle blip.

The Governor's Race: A Three-Way Contest Atop a Crowded Field

The race to succeed Newsom has crystallized into a contest among three candidates, with the remaining 58 fighting for scraps.

The most recent PPIC Statewide Survey, conducted May 14–18 among 986 likely voters, shows former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading with 23%, followed by former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 20%, and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer at 15% [1]. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco trails at 13%, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter sits at 12% [1].

Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, May 2026

Data as of May 18, 2026CSV

The trajectory matters as much as the snapshot. Since PPIC's December 2025 survey, Becerra has surged from 14% to 23% — a gain fueled largely by the collapse of former Congressman Eric Swalwell's campaign after sexual misconduct allegations [2]. Hilton climbed from 14% to 20% over the same period, boosted by President Trump's April endorsement [3]. Steyer has remained relatively flat despite spending at a rate that dwarfs every other candidate combined [4].

An Emerson College poll from May 9–10 paints a tighter picture: Becerra at 19%, with Hilton and Steyer tied at 17% [5]. When leaners are included, the gap narrows further — Becerra at 20%, Steyer at 19%, Hilton at 18% [5]. With 12% of likely voters still undecided and 40% of decided voters saying they could change their mind, the second-place finish remains genuinely uncertain [5].

The Jungle Primary: How the Rules Shape the Outcome

California's top-two primary system, established by Proposition 14 in 2010, puts all candidates on a single ballot regardless of party. Every registered voter — Democrat, Republican, or No Party Preference — can vote for any candidate, and only the top two advance to November [6].

This structure creates a paradox in 2026. With five major Democrats splitting the left-leaning majority, two Republicans could theoretically finish first and second, locking Democrats out of the general election entirely. Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio called the jungle primary a "failed experiment," warning that voters could face an all-Republican November choice [6].

But that scenario has grown less likely. Trump's endorsement of Hilton consolidated Republican support — 53% of GOP voters now back Hilton and 33% back Bianco, according to PPIC [1]. That consolidation reduces the chance that Republican votes scatter across multiple candidates and increases the chance that at least one Democrat — most likely Becerra or Steyer — claims the second slot.

The more probable outcome, based on current polling, is a Becerra-Hilton or Becerra-Steyer general election. A Becerra-Steyer matchup — two Democrats — would leave Republicans without a candidate in the governor's race for the first time in modern history.

Voter Registration: The Structural Math

The raw registration numbers tell a blunt story about California's partisan landscape.

Source: CA Secretary of State

Data as of Apr 3, 2026CSV

As of the Secretary of State's 60-day report, Democrats hold 44.92% of the state's 23.1 million registered voters. Republicans account for 25.03%, and No Party Preference voters make up 22.76% [7]. Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one.

Those numbers have shifted modestly since the 2024 cycle. Democratic registration fell from 46.75% to 44.92%, while Republican registration inched up from 23.92% to 25.03% [7]. The total number of registered voters grew by more than a million, from 22 million to 23.1 million [7].

For independents, PPIC finds they are split almost evenly among the top five candidates: Porter leads at 20%, followed by Hilton at 17%, Becerra at 15%, Bianco at 14%, and Steyer at 14% [1]. This fragmentation among No Party Preference voters makes them unlikely to function as a bloc that decisively alters the outcome.

The Money: A Record-Shattering Primary

The 2026 governor's primary is the most expensive in California history, and it is not close.

Tom Steyer has personally invested $213 million of his own fortune into his campaign [4]. That figure surpasses the previous record set by Republican Meg Whitman, who spent approximately $94 million in the 2010 primary [4]. For comparison, the entire 2018 governor's race saw $42.2 million in ad spending, and the 2022 cycle totaled just $14.7 million [8].

Source: CalMatters / AdImpact

Data as of May 30, 2026CSV

Beyond candidate spending, outside groups have poured $79 million into the race — more than double the outside spending in the entire 2018 general election [9]. The largest single effort is California Is Not For Sale, a committee funded by the state Realtors association, the California Chamber of Commerce, PG&E, and the electrical workers' union, which has spent $32 million opposing Steyer [9]. Steyer's positions on challenging PG&E's monopoly and raising commercial property tax assessments drew this opposition.

Pro-Becerra PACs have spent $13 million, with contributions from Chevron, McDonald's, Meta, and Airbnb each contributing between $500,000 and $1 million [9]. On the Republican side, Hilton's campaign raised $4.4 million, while Bianco raised $1.5 million [4]. Progressive unions including the California Nurses Association spent $1.4 million supporting Steyer [9].

The donor class breakdown reveals a race where corporate California has largely rallied behind Becerra as the moderate, business-friendly Democrat, while labor and environmental groups split between Steyer and Porter.

Trump's California Gamble

President Trump issued a slate of California endorsements ahead of Tuesday's primary. In the governor's race, he gave Steve Hilton his "COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT" in April [3]. For Congress, Trump backed Reps. Tom McClintock, Jay Obernolte, and Vince Fong, along with Kevin Lincoln, a former Stockton mayor running in the newly drawn 13th Congressional District [10].

Trump's endorsement gave Hilton a measurable bump. Before the April endorsement, Hilton polled in the mid-teens; afterward, he consolidated Republican support and climbed to 20% in PPIC's May survey [1][3]. His voters are also the most committed — 73% say they will "definitely" support him, compared to 52% for Becerra and 48% for Steyer [5].

But Trump's brand remains a liability in a state he lost by roughly 20 points in 2024. The endorsement unified Republicans behind Hilton at the cost of making him a less viable general-election candidate. If Hilton advances to November, he would need to win over large numbers of No Party Preference voters and moderate Democrats in a state where Democratic registration approaches 45%.

The historical win rate of Trump-backed candidates in California is mixed. In safe Republican districts — the Central Valley, rural Northern California — his endorsees typically win primaries. In competitive suburban districts, the Trump brand has been a drag. The 2022 cycle saw several Trump-endorsed candidates underperform in Orange County and Los Angeles County suburbs.

Down-Ballot Battles: Congress and the Prop 50 Shakeup

The passage of Proposition 50 in November 2025 triggered mid-decade redistricting of California's congressional map, creating several high-stakes matchups [11].

The most dramatic is in the newly drawn 40th Congressional District, where two Republican incumbents — 33-year veteran Ken Calvert and three-term Rep. Young Kim — are forced into the same race [12]. The new district includes 51% of Calvert's current constituents, 33% of Kim's, and 15% of retiring Rep. Darrell Issa's [12]. Total campaign spending in the race has exceeded $17 million, with Kim spending nearly $8 million and Calvert raising $5.2 million [12]. A super PAC called Americans 4 Security has spent roughly $3 million attacking Kim [12]. Both candidates have competed to demonstrate loyalty to President Trump.

Beyond the 40th, Prop 50's new maps gave Democrats structural advantages in five of the nine California congressional seats currently held by Republicans [11]. These redrawn districts could prove decisive in determining which party controls the House during the final two years of Trump's presidency.

All 80 California Assembly seats and 20 state Senate seats are also on Tuesday's ballot [11]. The state legislature races have drawn less national attention but carry significant implications for Sacramento's supermajority dynamics.

The Case for Republican Resurgence — and Its Limits

Republicans point to several trends that suggest genuine gains in California. Latino men in the Central Valley and Inland Empire have shown a noticeable shift toward GOP candidates, driven by economic concerns and small-business issues [13]. Cost of living ranks as the top concern for 53% of Latino voters statewide, followed by jobs and the economy at 36% [14]. Suburban voters in Orange County and San Diego have shown a "split-ticket" pattern — leaning Democratic on statewide races but increasingly willing to vote Republican locally on fiscal grounds [13].

Republican voter registration has grown from 23.92% to 25.03%, while Democratic registration has fallen by nearly two percentage points [7]. And in early 2026 primary voting, Republicans returned ballots at a higher rate — 26% of registered Republicans had voted pre-election day, compared to 21% of Democrats [15].

But these gains run into hard structural limits. Democrats still outnumber Republicans by nearly 20 percentage points in registration [7]. The jungle primary means a Republican candidate needs to win outright majorities in November, not just plurals in a primary. Nonpartisan analysts consistently note that a Republican has not won a statewide race in California since 2006, and the registration gap has only widened since then.

The realistic ceiling, according to multiple analysts, is that a Republican can finish first in the primary — a symbolic victory — but faces overwhelming odds in a general election. Hilton would need to hold every Republican voter, win a large majority of No Party Preference voters, and peel off a significant share of Democrats. In a state where Democratic registration is nearly 45% and Republican registration is 25%, the math requires a crossover performance that no Republican has achieved in two decades.

Turnout: The X-Factor

Early turnout data suggests approximately 20% of registered voters had cast ballots by early afternoon on election day [15]. Republicans were outpacing Democrats in ballot returns — a consistent pattern in California midterm primaries, where the older, more rural Republican base tends to vote early and by mail at higher rates.

This dynamic creates a familiar distortion. Early results on Tuesday night will likely skew Republican, as same-day and late-arriving mail ballots — which lean Democratic and come disproportionately from urban areas — take days or weeks to count. The Secretary of State has until July 3 to certify final results [16].

Low-turnout primaries also tend to amplify the influence of highly motivated ideological voters. Hilton's committed base — 73% of his supporters are locked in — gives him a structural advantage in a low-turnout environment [5]. Becerra and Steyer, whose supporters are more persuadable, are more vulnerable to late-breaking shifts.

County-level turnout will be critical. Los Angeles County, home to more than a quarter of the state's voters, historically underperforms in primaries. High turnout in LA would benefit Becerra and Steyer. Strong turnout in the Inland Empire and Central Valley would boost Hilton and Bianco.

What Tuesday Will — and Won't — Tell Us

The primary will determine which two candidates advance to November, and the composition of that matchup will shape the entire general election. A Becerra-Hilton pairing creates a traditional partisan contest in which Becerra would be heavily favored. A Becerra-Steyer matchup would produce an all-Democratic general election focused on ideology and spending. A Hilton-Steyer pairing — unlikely but not impossible — would give Republicans their best shot at the governorship in a generation.

Down-ballot, the congressional results will preview whether Prop 50's redistricting delivers the Democratic gains its architects intended, or whether Republican incumbents can survive in redrawn districts by running on Trump's coattails and cost-of-living frustration.

What Tuesday will not resolve is the larger question hanging over California politics: whether the state's two-to-one Democratic registration advantage represents a durable majority or a paper lead that crumbles when voters face $5 gas, $3,000 rents, and a Democratic establishment they increasingly view as unresponsive. The primary is a snapshot. The general election will be the test.