California Governor General Election Set: Trump-Backed Hilton to Face Democrat Becerra

On June 2, 2026, California's top-two primary produced a general election matchup that few predicted even six months ago: Steve Hilton, a British-born, naturalized American citizen who hosted a Fox News show until 2023 and served as a strategist for former British Prime Minister David Cameron, will face Xavier Becerra, a 12-term former congressman, former California attorney general, and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Biden [1][2]. The winner in November will replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom and inherit a state grappling with persistent budget shortfalls, a housing crisis, and net domestic outmigration that has stretched past two decades.

The Primary Numbers

With approximately 84 percent of ballots counted as of June 5, Becerra led all candidates at 27.66 percent, with Hilton in second at 25.10 percent [1]. Billionaire Tom Steyer, who self-funded $28 million into his campaign, finished third and was still narrowly contesting the second-place spot as late-arriving mail ballots were processed [3][4].

California's jungle primary system — in which all candidates regardless of party appear on a single ballot and the top two advance — means Hilton did not need to win a majority of Republicans. He needed only to consolidate enough GOP support to finish in the top two. Registered Republicans make up roughly 24 percent of California's electorate [5]. Hilton's 25 percent primary share, drawn overwhelmingly from that base, suggests he captured a large majority of Republican voters who turned out — a strong consolidation by recent standards.

For context, in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, Republican Brian Dahle received just 16.8 percent of the vote and went on to lose to Newsom by 18 points in November [6]. Hilton's primary showing exceeds Dahle's and approaches the kind of numbers Republican candidates posted in more competitive eras of California politics.

Becerra's path was more improbable. As recently as April 2026, polls showed him languishing in single digits in a crowded Democratic field that included Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, and former Rep. Eric Swalwell [2]. His late surge has been described as "one of the most surprising comebacks in recent state political history" [7]. If elected, Becerra would be the first Latino governor of California since Romualdo Pacheco held the office for 10 months in 1875 [2].

Who Is Steve Hilton?

Hilton was born in London on August 25, 1969, to parents who emigrated from Hungary during the 1956 revolution [8]. He studied philosophy, politics, and economics at New College, Oxford, and rose through British Conservative Party politics to become director of strategy for Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012 [8]. He moved to California in 2012, co-founded the crowdfunding platform Crowdpac, and became a U.S. citizen on May 11, 2021, during a ceremony in San Francisco [9].

From 2017 to 2023, Hilton hosted The Next Revolution on Fox News [8]. He has no prior elected office.

His candidacy raises a question with a clear legal answer: Can a naturalized citizen serve as governor of California? Yes. The California Constitution requires only that the governor "be an elector who has been a citizen of the United States and a resident of this State for 5 years immediately preceding the Governor's election" [10]. The "natural-born citizen" requirement in the U.S. Constitution applies exclusively to the presidency. Hilton, a citizen since 2021 — five years before the November 2026 election — meets the threshold.

The outsider-governor playbook has precedent nationally. Arnold Schwarzenegger, an Austrian-born naturalized citizen, won California's 2003 recall election and was reelected in 2006 with no prior political office [11]. Jesse Ventura won the Minnesota governorship in 1998 as a former professional wrestler with minimal political experience and a $500,000 campaign budget [12].

Who Is Xavier Becerra?

Becerra served in Congress representing a Los Angeles district from 1993 to 2017, then was appointed California attorney general by Gov. Jerry Brown [13]. President Biden nominated him as HHS secretary in 2021, making him the first Latino in that role [2].

His HHS tenure has become a central line of attack. Xochitl Hinojosa, a former Biden Justice Department communications director, said on CNN that she "did not trust Becerra to stand up to Donald Trump based on his performance in the administration" [13]. Multiple anonymous former Biden officials described him as "in over his head" and "asleep at the wheel" on issues including COVID messaging, the 2022 baby formula shortage, and the surge of unaccompanied migrant children at the border [14].

Defenders offer a different accounting. Former Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said: "When it came to the greatest challenges of our time — a global pandemic, expanding coverage, lowering costs — he led with courage and expertise" [13]. Neera Tanden, a senior Biden White House adviser, cited concrete achievements: "He delivered on Medicare drug negotiation, $35 insulin and got health care coverage for 14 million more people" [13].

The core vulnerability for Becerra is that he has never held elected executive office. His roles as congressman and attorney general were legislative and legal, not administrative. He now asks voters to trust that his combined decades of government experience amount to executive readiness.

The State They Want to Govern

California's next governor will confront fiscal and social challenges that have persisted across multiple administrations.

Budget Deficits

The state's Legislative Analyst's Office projects an $18 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2026-27, with structural shortfalls of $15 billion to $25 billion projected annually through at least 2029 [15]. The governor's own administration has offered a more optimistic $3 billion figure, but the LAO has warned that stock market volatility could cause income tax revenues to fall sharply, worsening the picture [15].

Source: CA Legislative Analyst Office

Data as of Jan 10, 2026CSV

Housing and Poverty

California's house price index stood at 976.79 in January 2026, up 1.8 percent year-over-year [16]. To qualify for a mortgage on a mid-tier California home, a household needs income of approximately $221,000 — more than twice the state median [17]. Only 23 percent of California households would qualify for such a mortgage, down from 31 percent in 2019 [17].

Source: FRED / Federal Reserve

Data as of Jan 1, 2026CSV

The state holds the nation's highest supplemental poverty rate — 17.7 percent when adjusted for cost of living — meaning nearly 7 million residents are impoverished by this measure, 5 percentage points above the national average and tied with Louisiana [18].

Outmigration

California lost 229,077 residents to domestic migration between July 2024 and July 2025, continuing a pattern of negative net domestic migration stretching back more than 20 years [19]. Total population dipped by 9,500 in 2025 — a reversal from a gain of 232,000 the prior year, driven largely by a drop in international migration from 361,000 to 109,000 [19].

Homelessness Spending

State homelessness-related spending peaked at $6.8 billion in 2022-23 before declining sharply to an estimated $1.5 billion in 2025-26 [20]. The governor's proposed 2026-27 budget appropriates $500 million for a new round of Homeless Housing, Assistance, and Prevention (HHAP) grants — a 50 percent cut from prior funding levels [20].

Source: CA Budget Center

Data as of Jan 15, 2026CSV

Unemployment

California's unemployment rate stood at 5.3 percent in April 2026, slightly above the national average, having peaked at 5.5 percent in late 2025 before a modest decline [16].

Source: FRED / Federal Reserve

Data as of Apr 1, 2026CSV

Trump's Endorsement: Asset or Liability?

President Trump endorsed Hilton over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, consolidating the Republican field [21]. In the primary, the endorsement worked: Hilton dispatched Bianco and finished second overall. The general election presents a different calculus.

Biden won California by 29 points in 2020. No Republican has won a California statewide race since Schwarzenegger's 2006 reelection [5]. Cook Political Report rates the seat as solidly Democratic [1]. Trump's overall endorsement record in 2022 general elections showed an 84 percent win rate across 257 races, but his gubernatorial endorsees won just 48 percent of the time — 10 of 21 [22].

No Trump-endorsed candidate has won a California statewide general election. The state's voter registration advantage for Democrats — nearly 2-to-1 over Republicans — makes the math forbidding [5].

A CalMatters opinion column argued directly that "Trump endorsing Hilton may help keep California governorship in Democratic hands," reasoning that the association energizes Democratic turnout while offering limited upside among persuadable voters in a state where Trump's approval has remained well below 40 percent [23].

Hilton has embraced the endorsement without reservation. His campaign platform — "$3 gas," "your first 100 grand tax-free," and cutting electric bills "in half" — echoes Trump's populist economic pitch [1].

Policy Fault Lines: Housing, Crime, and Homelessness

Housing

The candidates represent starkly different theories of the state's housing crisis. Hilton wants to open natural and public spaces for new housing, particularly suburban single-family homes, and cut environmental regulations he argues slow construction and raise costs [24]. Becerra favors enforcing existing state housing laws, directing the Department of Housing and Community Development to fine cities that fail to meet their housing-element commitments, with a goal of 1.5 million to 2 million new homes in his first term [24].

California YIMBY, a pro-housing organization, noted that most 2026 candidates — including Becerra — adopted pro-housing positions, marking a shift from prior cycles [25]. The question for Becerra is enforcement credibility: California has had ambitious housing targets for years without meeting them. The question for Hilton is whether rolling back environmental regulations would produce housing at the scale and in the locations where demand is greatest, or whether suburban single-family construction addresses a crisis concentrated in urban centers.

Homelessness

Hilton has called street homelessness "categorically illegal" and has said the law "needs to be enforced," framing the issue as one of order and accountability [24]. He argues existing spending is wasted through "corruption in the system" and special-interest capture [24].

Becerra has said unhoused Californians "shouldn't be treated as a criminal" but also that people should not be able to "voluntarily stay on the street if help is available" [24]. He has proposed establishing the state's first continuous funding stream for homelessness prevention [24].

Fiscal Policy

Hilton's centerpiece — eliminating state income tax on the first $100,000 of earnings — would represent a large revenue reduction for a state that depends heavily on income tax, particularly from high earners. Independent estimates of the cost of such a proposal are not yet available, but California's income tax generated approximately $115 billion in fiscal year 2024-25, making any significant cut a direct challenge to the state's already strained budget [15].

Becerra has not proposed comparable tax cuts and has generally positioned himself as a defender of existing revenue streams and social spending.

Follow the Money

Through the end of 2025, Hilton led non-self-funding candidates with $4.1 million raised in the July-December period, powered by more than 30,000 individual donors, with the "overwhelming majority" giving small-dollar contributions [26]. His total raised through all reporting periods reached $7.1 million [27]. He spent more than half of what he raised, entering 2026 with roughly $2 million cash on hand [26].

Becerra raised $2.6 million, much of it transferred from prior campaign accounts, and entered 2026 with $3.8 million cash on hand — the highest among Democrats [26].

For comparison, self-funder Tom Steyer poured $28 million of his own money into the race, spending $26 million on advertising [26]. Newsom's 2018 winning campaign spent $30.7 million, equivalent to approximately $40 million in 2026 dollars [26].

The fundraising gap between Hilton and Becerra is modest, but the general election will test whether national Republican and Democratic committees invest heavily. Hilton's small-dollar donor base suggests grassroots enthusiasm; Becerra's reliance on transferred funds and institutional support suggests a traditional campaign infrastructure. Neither has yet approached the spending levels that a competitive California general election would require.

The Case Against One-Party Governance

California has had continuous Democratic governors since Jerry Brown took office in January 2011. During that period, the state has seen its supplemental poverty rate remain the highest or among the highest in the nation, housing costs accelerate far beyond wage growth, and a net loss of hundreds of thousands of residents to domestic migration annually [18][19].

These facts form the core of Hilton's general-election argument: that 15 years of uninterrupted Democratic governance have failed to solve the state's most pressing problems despite large revenue bases and supermajority legislative control.

Some analysts outside conservative media have echoed parts of this critique. A 2026 report from the Berkeley Economy & Society Initiative concluded that "California's affordability crisis originates from decades of policy decisions that have constrained housing and infrastructure development, contributing to elevated living costs, increased poverty, and population out-migration" [17]. The report does not assign partisan blame, but the policy decisions it references — restrictive zoning, environmental review processes, infrastructure permitting timelines — accumulated across Democratic administrations.

The counterargument is structural: California's desirability as a place to live — its climate, its economy, its universities — drives demand that no single governor can fully manage. The state's GDP, if measured as a country, would rank fifth in the world. Unemployment at 5.3 percent, while above the national average, is not catastrophically high [16]. And the problems Hilton highlights — housing costs, homelessness, outmigration — are driven substantially by national and global forces, including interest rates, immigration policy, and remote-work trends.

What November Looks Like

The structural advantages favor Becerra. California's voter registration, its recent electoral history, and the Cook Political rating all point to a Democratic hold. No Republican has won a standard California gubernatorial general election since Pete Wilson in 1994 [11].

But Hilton does not need to follow the standard Republican playbook. His outsider profile, his populist economic messaging, and his ability to generate small-dollar grassroots fundraising are assets in a state where voter frustration with the cost of living is bipartisan. His challenge is that Trump's endorsement, while valuable in the primary, carries significant liabilities in a general electorate that rejected Trump by 29 points in 2020 and where the president's approval has not improved.

Becerra's challenge is different: he must convince voters that a career government official with a contested HHS record and no executive experience is the right person to manage a state with a $900 billion economy and a projected $18 billion deficit. His late-breaking primary momentum suggests Democratic voters were looking for a safe, experienced choice over flashier alternatives — but "safe" is a harder sell when the state's affordability crisis demands something more than incremental enforcement of existing policy.

The race will also serve as a proxy battle in a larger national question: whether Trump-era populism can compete in the bluest of blue states, or whether California remains the firewall that defines the limits of Republican reach. The answer will shape both parties' strategies heading into 2028.