Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt Advance to Runoff in Los Angeles Mayoral Race

On the night of June 2, 2026, Los Angeles delivered a verdict that would have seemed absurd two years ago: Karen Bass, the veteran congresswoman-turned-mayor, will spend the next five months fighting for her political survival against Spencer Pratt, the former star of MTV's The Hills who has never held elected office [1][2].

Bass led the 14-candidate primary field with roughly 36% of the vote, followed by Pratt at approximately 30% and City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 21%, with votes still being counted [1][3]. Because no candidate cleared the 50% threshold required to win outright, Bass and Pratt will face each other in a November 3 runoff [2].

The headline number for Bass is not her first-place finish. It is the roughly 64% of voters who chose someone other than the incumbent — a staggering rebuke in a city where she won the 2022 general election with 54.8% against billionaire Rick Caruso [4].

"We have no other choice, so it's pretty simple," Pratt told supporters. "We can't do four more years of Karen Bass" [1].

Source: LA County Registrar / ABC7

Data as of Jun 3, 2026CSV

The Fire That Changed Everything

The political earthquake has a precise epicenter: January 7, 2025, when the Palisades and Eaton fires tore through Los Angeles, burning over 17,200 acres and forcing more than 100,000 people to evacuate [5][6].

The timeline of failures documented in subsequent after-action reviews is extensive. On January 1, a small brush fire — the Lachman Fire — ignited near Skull Rock trail in Pacific Palisades. Crews were ordered to roll up hoses and leave the next day despite visible smoldering hotspots; embers continued burning underground in the chaparral root system [5]. When Santa Ana winds gusting up to 100 miles per hour arrived on January 7, the Palisades erupted.

The city's infrastructure buckled. Twenty percent of fire hydrants failed as demand overwhelmed supply [5]. The LADWP system ran dry in the Palisades area by early morning on January 8. A nearby reservoir that could have provided backup was empty — it had been taken offline for repairs [5][6]. Only 19 firefighters were deployed when the fire broke out, and the LAFD acknowledged it had not kept the previous shift's staff on duty, citing "fiscal responsibility amid budget restraints" [6]. Fire trucks had not been pre-stationed in high-risk neighborhoods as had been done during previous wind events [6].

The evacuation alert system compounded the chaos. Many residents in fire zones received warnings late or not at all, while simultaneously millions of residents outside evacuation zones received erroneous alerts, triggering panic across the city [7]. Altadena-area residents reported receiving no Eaton Fire warnings whatsoever [7]. An LA County after-action review later found that "outdated policies, inconsistent practices and communications vulnerabilities" had hampered the response [7].

Bass was in Ghana attending a presidential inauguration when the fires erupted, despite National Weather Service warnings about critical fire conditions [8]. She returned on January 8, saying she had communicated with officials "every hour" during her travels and took "the fastest route back" [8][9].

Pratt, who lost his own home in the Palisades Fire, built his entire candidacy on the disaster. His campaign website frames the race around "wildfire recovery frustrations, housing costs, and government accountability" [10].

The Case for Bass: What the Numbers Actually Show

Bass's critics paint a picture of across-the-board failure. The data tells a more complicated story.

On homelessness — the issue that defined her 2022 campaign — Bass can point to genuine progress. The city's annual homeless count dropped from 46,260 in 2023 to 45,252 in 2024 and 43,695 in 2025, marking the first time two consecutive years of decline had been recorded since the Point in Time Count began in 2005 [11]. Street homelessness specifically fell 17.5% during her tenure [11]. Hollywood saw a 49% year-over-year decline in street homelessness according to RAND Corporation data [11]. Nearly 7,400 Angelenos moved into permanent housing from interim housing in 2024, nearly double the 2022 figure, and over 25,000 units of affordable housing were accelerated through her Executive Directive 1 [12].

Source: LA Mayor Office / LAHSA

Data as of Jun 1, 2025CSV

But those numbers have significant caveats. Homelessness among seniors increased to 4,680 in 2025 — up 36% between 2023 and 2025 [11]. And a city controller audit found that nearly half of the record $1.3 billion homelessness budget for FY2023-24 went unspent, with only $599 million actually disbursed [13]. For voters watching encampments persist in their neighborhoods, the gap between budget allocations and visible results fueled skepticism about the administration's competence.

On the fire response, the picture is similarly mixed. Bass's opponents repeatedly cite a $17 million reduction to LAFD's budget that she approved in June 2024 [8]. However, Politico reported that when the full budget cycle is considered — including additional funding during contract negotiations — the fire budget actually increased more than $50 million year-over-year [8]. LAFD Chief Kristin Crowley publicly accused Bass of "underfunding firefighting capability," but Bass fired Crowley after reports showed pre-staging failures that fell under the chief's operational authority [8][9].

The LA Times reported that Bass pressured fire officials to soften or downplay findings about the city's wildfire response in after-action reports [9]. Bass denied altering any reports, saying she only asked LAFD to ensure accuracy [14].

The Money Race: Pratt's Fundraising Surge

The financial trajectory of this race captures the shift in political momentum. In the fundraising period from April 19 to May 16, Pratt raised $2.72 million — nearly ten times Bass's $283,000 haul in the same window [15]. Raman raised $400,000, including a $60,000 personal loan [15].

Source: Newsweek

Data as of May 16, 2026CSV

Cumulatively through May 16, Pratt had raised $3.26 million to Bass's $3.13 million — meaning a reality TV personality with no political track record outraised a sitting mayor [15].

Source: Newsweek / FEC Filings

Data as of May 16, 2026CSV

Pratt's donor list reads like a guest roster at a Malibu fundraiser. Google co-founder Sergey Brin maxed out at $1,800 [16]. Crypto billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss each contributed. Other maxed-out donors include Tinder co-creator Justin Mateen, Universal Music Group CEO Sir Lucian Grainge, former Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick, Los Angeles Lakers president Jeanie Buss, and hedge fund manager Dan Loeb [16].

Singer Katharine McPhee, who hosted a fundraiser for Pratt at her home, cited the "overall decline in quality of life" in Los Angeles [16]. Former Access Hollywood anchor Billy Bush co-hosted a fundraising lunch [16].

Bass's top donors were not detailed in the same public filings reviewed for this article, and her campaign finance records for specific individual contributors were not immediately available in comparable detail. Her cumulative $3.13 million was raised over a longer period, reflecting the structural advantage of incumbency in early fundraising that evaporated as the primary approached.

The Outsider Question: Can a Celebrity Govern?

Pratt's candidacy invites comparison to other celebrity and outsider candidates who have won major office. The historical record is thin but not empty.

Jerry Springer won the Cincinnati mayoralty in 1976 by the largest margin in the city's history, though Cincinnati's mayor at the time held largely ceremonial powers [17]. Clint Eastwood served as mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea from 1986 to 1988 — a town of roughly 4,000 residents [17]. Sonny Bono won the Palm Springs mayoralty in 1988 before moving to Congress [17]. Jesse Ventura won the Brooklyn Park, Minnesota mayoralty in 1991 and later the Minnesota governorship in 1998 [17].

None of these examples remotely approximates the scale of governing Los Angeles, a city of nearly four million people with a $13 billion annual budget, 50,000 municipal employees, and infrastructure challenges that dwarf most American cities. The closest analog in scale might be Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2003 gubernatorial win, though Schwarzenegger governed the entire state of California, not a single city, and had advisors with deep Sacramento experience from day one.

Pratt's stated policy positions are broad rather than granular. He argues Los Angeles "doesn't have a homelessness problem" but a "drug problem" and advocates arresting drug users or bringing them to treatment centers [10]. He rejects what he calls "defund-style politics" and prioritizes frontline policing [10]. He promises a "back-to-basics budget" that prioritizes core services, competitive bidding, and an end to "sweetheart deals" [10].

On energy and infrastructure, Pratt champions grid resilience and infrastructure hardening, though his campaign has not published specific cost estimates or implementation timelines [10].

What Powers Does the Mayor Actually Hold?

A central question in this race — one largely absent from campaign rhetoric on both sides — is what the Los Angeles mayor can and cannot actually do.

Los Angeles operates under a "strong mayor" system in which the mayor serves as chief executive, appoints department heads including the police chief and LADWP general manager, and prepares the annual budget [18]. The mayor holds veto power over City Council legislation and has emergency powers that allow deployment of city employees to other roles and commandeering of private property [18].

However, the City Council holds appropriation authority and confirms mayoral appointments to major commissions [18]. The DWP is governed by a five-person Board of Commissioners appointed by the mayor, but the Council approves DWP budgets and rate changes [18]. The City Charter establishes structural protections for the fire department that limit mayoral intervention in operational decisions [18].

This means that several decisions voters are most angry about — water infrastructure maintenance schedules, fire department staffing levels during budget negotiations, and the pace of affordable housing construction — required City Council approval or fell under the operational authority of department heads. Bass bears executive responsibility for appointments and budget proposals, but the Council shares accountability for final spending decisions.

For Pratt, this structural reality poses a governing challenge that his campaign has not publicly addressed. The Los Angeles City Council remains dominated by members who have not endorsed him [18]. Even if elected, Pratt would need to build working relationships with a Council that has no obvious incentive to cooperate with an outsider mayor who ran against the political establishment they represent. His stated priorities — ending "sweetheart deals," enforcing competitive bidding, restructuring the homelessness approach — would each require Council votes that a hostile legislative body could block or dilute.

Who Voted for Pratt — and Why?

Detailed neighborhood-level and demographic breakdowns were not yet available as of June 3, with full vote counting scheduled through June 26 and certification by July 10 [4]. Early reporting suggests Pratt drew particular strength from Westside communities affected by the fires and from voters focused on government spending, public safety, and fiscal accountability [3][19].

Encino voter David Gostine told reporters he voted for Pratt to "change how the city spends its tax revenue" [19]. This sentiment — framing the vote less as an endorsement of Pratt and more as a rejection of Bass — appears consistent with the broader pattern of the results, where the combined anti-Bass vote reached approximately 64% [1][2].

The question for the runoff is whether those voters consolidate behind Pratt or whether some of Raman's approximately 21% — a progressive bloc with policy priorities that differ substantially from Pratt's law-enforcement-first approach — returns to Bass as the lesser of two evils in a binary choice.

Prediction markets on the morning of the primary had Bass at 71% and Pratt at 22% [15]. Those odds will likely shift as the reality of a one-on-one race sets in.

The Structural Grievances Behind the Protest Vote

The voter anger driving this race is real, but its targets are diffuse. Los Angeles residents face a median home price that has risen relentlessly for a decade, rents that consume a larger share of income than in virtually any other American city, and commute times that rank among the nation's worst. These are structural conditions that predate Bass's 2022 inauguration and exceed the authority of any single mayor.

The January 2025 fires accelerated pre-existing frustrations into acute rage. But the water infrastructure failures trace back decades to deferred maintenance decisions made by successive city administrations and DWP boards. The housing affordability crisis is driven by state-level zoning restrictions, construction costs, and labor shortages that no municipal executive can unilaterally solve.

Bass's defenders argue she is being punished for visible crises that she inherited or that exceed her authority [9]. Her critics counter that executive leadership means owning outcomes regardless of structural constraints — and that her specific decisions, including the Ghana trip, the budget disputes with LAFD, and the pace of fire recovery, demonstrated poor judgment independent of systemic factors [8][9].

What Happens Next

The November 3 runoff will be a fundamentally different race than the primary. In a two-candidate contest, both campaigns will face scrutiny they have largely avoided. Bass will need to explain not just her record but why she deserves a second term despite majority disapproval. Pratt will need to demonstrate that his candidacy amounts to more than a vehicle for protest — that he has specific, implementable plans for a city facing overlapping crises.

The Council dynamics matter enormously. If Pratt wins but faces a hostile Council, the result could be gridlock at a moment when Los Angeles can least afford it. If Bass wins but enters a second term weakened and distrusted by a majority of voters, her capacity to govern effectively may be permanently diminished.

For Los Angeles, the choice in November is not simply between two candidates. It is between the risks of a deeply wounded incumbent and the risks of an untested outsider — in a city where the consequences of getting governance wrong are measured in lives lost, homes destroyed, and people living on streets.