Italy's Meloni Faces Political Pressure from Iran War Fallout

When U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — one of Donald Trump's closest ideological allies in Europe — found herself caught between loyalty to Washington and the demands of her own parliament, her public, and international law. Two weeks into a conflict that has killed more than 1,200 people in Iran and sent oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel, Meloni's careful political equilibrium is under unprecedented strain [1][2].

The Breaking Point

The turning point came on March 11, when Meloni stood before the Italian parliament and delivered her sharpest public rebuke of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign. She described the strikes as part of a troubling pattern of unilateral military actions "outside the scope of international law" — language that put her in rare alignment with Spain's Pedro Sánchez and at odds with her ally in the White House [3][4].

"We cannot accept a world in which threats are becoming increasingly terrifying and unilateral interventions outside the confines of international law are multiplying," Meloni told lawmakers, drawing a direct parallel between the U.S.-Israeli campaign and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine [5].

The remarks were extraordinary not merely for their substance, but for their source. Meloni has spent years cultivating a personal rapport with Trump, positioning Italy as Washington's most dependable European partner. Just days earlier, on March 8, Trump had publicly praised Meloni's "willingness to help" in the conflict — a characterization that sparked fury in Rome and may have accelerated her pivot [6].

Kept in the Dark

A central grievance, shared across European capitals, is that key allies were blindsided by the military action. Italy's government only learned of the strikes on Iran as they were happening, according to Italian daily La Repubblica. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini confirmed the lack of advance warning during an emergency cabinet call [7].

The slight was compounded by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's announcement on March 10 that the day would mark the U.S. military's "most intense" bombing campaign inside Iran yet — a statement that reached Rome through news headlines rather than diplomatic channels [8].

For Meloni, the communication failure underscored a deeper asymmetry: Trump expected European solidarity without extending European consultation. "Italy was treated as a footnote, not a partner," said one senior Italian diplomat, speaking anonymously to Il Sole 24 ORE [9].

The School That Changed the Calculus

If the lack of consultation strained the relationship, the Minab school attack threatened to break it. On February 28, the same day the campaign began, more than 170 people — mostly girls aged 7 to 12 — were killed when strikes hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in the southern Iranian city of Minab [10].

Initial confusion over responsibility gave way to damning evidence. Investigations by The Washington Post, CNN, and BBC Verify concluded that outdated U.S. intelligence likely led to the elementary school being mistakenly identified as a military target. A preliminary Pentagon finding, reported on March 11, suggested the targeting error may have been linked to an AI-generated target list that relied on stale satellite data [11][12].

The massacre galvanized Italian public opinion. UNESCO called it "a grave violation of humanitarian law." UN experts demanded an independent investigation. Nobel laureate Malala Yousafzai said the news left her "heartbroken and appalled" [13][14].

Meloni herself called it a "massacre" and condemned the strike in terms that left little ambiguity about where responsibility lay, telling parliament that Italy would "never accept the killing of innocent children, regardless of the circumstances" [15].

A Divided Public, A Divided Coalition

Meloni's domestic political predicament is captured in stark polling numbers. A YouTrend survey found that 56% of Italians oppose the U.S.-Israeli military intervention against Iran. Nearly half — 48% — believe the government should maintain neutrality and attempt to mediate, while 29% say Rome should condemn the attacks outright and call for an immediate ceasefire [16].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 12, 2026CSV

The opposition wasted no time exploiting the gap between public sentiment and government policy. For days before her March 11 address, opposition leaders accused Meloni of "fleeing Parliament and refusing to stand up to the war unleashed by her friend Trump." They drew unflattering comparisons with Spain's Sánchez, who not only condemned the strikes but evicted U.S. military aircraft from Spanish bases [17][3].

Even within her own coalition, the war has produced friction. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto — a Meloni ally — went further than the prime minister herself, declaring that the U.S.-Israeli intervention was "outside international law" before Meloni echoed the language. The messaging inconsistency suggested a government scrambling to find its footing [9][5].

The parliamentary vote on the government's resolution regarding the conflict passed with 102 votes in favor, 66 against, and 1 abstention — a margin that revealed significant dissent, including from some lawmakers within Meloni's broader right-wing bloc [3].

The Economic Squeeze

The geopolitical crisis has arrived alongside a tangible economic shock. The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world's oil and one-fifth of global LNG supply passes — has been effectively shut down since Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that "not a litre of oil" would pass through [18][19].

Source: FRED / Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Data as of Mar 12, 2026CSV

WTI crude oil surged from roughly $67 per barrel in late February to over $94 by March 9 — a nearly 40% spike in under two weeks. Brent crude briefly touched $126 per barrel at its peak on March 8 [20][21].

For energy-import-dependent Italy, the consequences are immediate and severe. Europe entered 2026 with gas storage levels already well below recent norms — just 46 billion cubic metres at the end of February, compared to 60 bcm in 2025 and 77 bcm in 2024 [22]. Italy relies heavily on imported energy, and the Bruegel think tank warned that if LNG flows through Hormuz are curtailed, Europe would be forced into a bidding war with Asian buyers on the spot market — a replay of the 2021-2023 energy crisis that devastated household budgets [22].

The International Energy Agency responded by coordinating a historic release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, but analysts noted this would cover only about 26 days of the estimated 20 million barrels per day being choked off from global markets [23].

Italy's Military Response: Deployable but Not at War

Meloni has walked a fine line between condemning the war and taking concrete military steps to protect Italian interests in the region. She announced that Italy — together with the UK, France, and Germany — would deploy air defense, anti-drone, and anti-missile systems to Gulf partners targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes [24].

The frigate Federico Martinengo departed from the naval base in Taranto on March 7, heading for the eastern Mediterranean as part of a joint European mission to protect Cyprus after Iranian drone strikes hit the island, including a UK military base [25][26]. At least 160 Italian naval personnel were deployed to the mission. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told parliament that Italy had so far helped around 10,000 nationals leave the broader region, where tens of thousands of Italians live and more than 2,500 troops were already stationed [27].

Meloni was careful to frame these deployments as defensive measures, not participation in the conflict. "Italy is not at war and does not intend to be at war," she repeated — a mantra that has become her most-quoted phrase of 2026 [28].

Europe's Fractured Response

Italy's position exists within a broader European landscape marked by confusion, division, and improvisation. The Council on Foreign Relations described Europe's collective response as "disjointed," and the pattern bears scrutiny [29].

Spain has taken the hardest line, evicting U.S. military aircraft and drawing threats from Trump to "cut off all trade" with Madrid [30].

France adopted a legally critical but operationally ambivalent stance: President Macron warned the strikes risked "undermining global stability" while authorizing American forces to use French bases in the region [31].

Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz broke the other direction entirely, permitting continued use of the U.S. Ramstein Air Base and aligning closely with Trump's objectives — a posture that left Berlin isolated from Paris and Madrid [31].

Italy occupied the middle ground — criticizing the legal basis of the war while deploying defensive assets, condemning the school massacre while protecting NATO's southeastern flank. It is a position that satisfies no one fully, but may reflect the most honest reckoning with Europe's contradictions.

As one European Leadership Network analyst observed: "Europe has united on condemning Iran's retaliatory strikes against nonbelligerents in the Gulf, but remains incoherent on the U.S.-Israeli action that provoked them" [29].

The Nuclear Dimension

Meloni also used her parliamentary address to introduce a dimension often lost in the debate over civilian casualties and energy prices: Iran's nuclear program. "We cannot afford an ayatollah regime in possession of a nuclear weapon, combined with a missile capability that could soon be able to directly strike Italy and Europe," she warned [5].

This framing — acknowledging the legitimacy of concern over Iranian nuclear capabilities while rejecting the method chosen to address it — represents Meloni's attempt to carve out a principled middle position. It allows her to share Trump's stated objective (preventing a nuclear Iran) while disowning his means (unilateral military force outside international law).

Whether this distinction can hold politically remains to be seen. The opposition argues it is incoherent — that you cannot simultaneously call a war illegal and quietly support its strategic aims.

What Comes Next

Meloni finds herself in a position that no amount of diplomatic finesse may resolve cleanly. Her personal relationship with Trump — once her greatest foreign policy asset — has become a liability as Italian public opinion turns decisively against the war. Her coalition partners are divided. Her military is deployed in harm's way. And the economic fallout, in the form of surging energy prices, threatens to erode the modest economic gains her government has secured since taking office in 2022.

The deeper question is whether Meloni's predicament is unique or emblematic. Across Europe, leaders are discovering that alliance with the United States in the Trump era demands a tolerance for unilateral action, civilian casualties, and strategic ambiguity that their publics are unwilling to extend. Spain has chosen confrontation. Germany has chosen acquiescence. France has chosen contradiction.

Italy, under Meloni, has chosen all three at once — and it is unclear how long that position can hold.