Iran Launches Fresh Strikes Against Israel and Gulf Nations

Ten days into the most explosive Middle Eastern conflict in a generation, Iran is not backing down. Overnight into Monday, March 10, Tehran launched a fresh barrage of missiles and drones at Israel and multiple Gulf Arab states — hours after the Assembly of Experts formally installed Mojtaba Khamenei, the slain supreme leader's son, as Iran's new head of state [1]. Sirens sounded across Dubai, Bahrain, and parts of Saudi Arabia. Oil prices flirted with $120 a barrel. And at least seven American service members have now died in a war that, just two weeks ago, many diplomats believed could still be avoided [2].

How the War Began

The conflict traces directly to February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a massive joint military operation — dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" by Washington and "Operation Roaring Lion" by Jerusalem — against Iranian military, nuclear, and government targets [3]. The opening salvo struck Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with other senior officials [4].

President Donald Trump and other US officials offered varying justifications for the war: to neutralize an imminent Iranian threat, to destroy Iran's missile and military capabilities, to prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon, and ultimately to achieve regime change by empowering the Iranian opposition [5]. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed "many surprises" for the next phase of the campaign [6].

The strikes came just hours after what appeared to be a diplomatic breakthrough. Oman had been mediating indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, and Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi publicly declared that peace was "within reach" after Iran agreed to never stockpile enriched uranium and to dramatically dilute its existing stockpile [7]. Then the missiles flew.

Within hours, Iran retaliated with "Operation True Promise IV," launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and thousands of drones at Israeli population centers and at US military installations across the Middle East — in Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey [8].

The Gulf Under Fire

What distinguishes this conflict from any previous Iran-Israel confrontation is the breadth of Iranian strikes against Arab Gulf states. For the first time in history, Iran has attacked all six Gulf Cooperation Council member nations — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates [7].

The UAE has borne the brunt of Iran's Gulf retaliation. More than 1,700 missiles and drones have been fired at the country over the past ten days. Of 689 unmanned aerial vehicles launched at the UAE, 645 were intercepted, but 44 struck their targets, killing four people — all foreign nationals from Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh — and injuring 112, according to UAE defence ministry statements as of March 8 [9]. In Fujairah, an oil facility caught fire overnight after an Iranian attack [1].

In Bahrain, at least 32 people, including children, were injured in an Iranian strike on the island of Sitra, south of the capital Manama [1]. Bahrain's state oil company declared force majeure on its shipments after its refinery caught fire in an Iranian attack [7]. Saudi Arabia reported destroying two drones over its oil-rich eastern region and intercepting multiple drones targeting the Shaybah oil field [1]. Kuwait's National Guard shot down six drones [1]. Qatar's Foreign Ministry condemned what it called an Iranian strike on a residential facility in Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia, that killed two civilians [1].

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 10, 2026CSV

A New Supreme Leader in Wartime

Amid the chaos, Iran's theocratic establishment moved swiftly to fill its power vacuum. On March 8, the Assembly of Experts — pressured by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — announced Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as Iran's third supreme leader [10]. The selection came after an emergency online session on March 3, with assembly leaders insisting the election had to proceed quickly because of the war [11].

Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the slain ayatollah, is widely viewed as a hardline figure with close ties to the powerful Revolutionary Guard. He has spent his career largely in the shadows — never giving public lectures, Friday sermons, or political addresses, to the point that many Iranians have not heard his voice, despite knowing for years that he was a rising power within the theocratic establishment [12]. His appointment signals continuity rather than conciliation, a message reinforced by the fresh wave of attacks launched within hours of his installation.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Chokepoint Shut Down

Perhaps the most consequential dimension of Iran's retaliation has been the near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about 20% of global seaborne oil trade, normally flows [13].

After the IRGC issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage, tanker traffic dropped approximately 70%, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risk [14]. Insurance withdrawal has effectively created a de facto closure for most global shipping, even as a trickle of Iranian and Chinese-flagged vessels continues to transit [15]. About half of all tankers that did cross between March 1-8 belonged to the so-called "shadow fleet" [15].

The energy ripple effects have been immediate and severe. Oil prices soared past $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, briefly touching nearly $120 on March 9 [7][14]. The disruption extends beyond crude: some 30% of Europe's jet fuel supply and roughly one-fifth of the global liquefied natural gas supply normally pass through the strait [14].

Source: Bloomberg / Lloyd's List / Windward

Data as of Mar 10, 2026CSV

The Human Cost

The humanitarian toll has been staggering. According to Al Jazeera's live tracker, at least 1,850 people have been killed across the region since the conflict began [16]. Iran has suffered the greatest casualties, with at least 1,330 civilians dead, more than 6,000 wounded, and over 100,000 displaced [16]. Among the dead: 175 schoolgirls and staff killed when a missile struck a primary school in Minab, in southern Iran, on the first day of the war — an event that has become a rallying symbol for international condemnation [16].

More than 200 people have been killed in Lebanon, and at least 11 civilians have died in Israel, nine of them from an Iranian missile strike on the city of Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem on March 1 [16]. US Central Command has confirmed seven American service members killed [2]. Schools, hospitals, the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, and the Golestan Palace — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — have all sustained damage [16]. At least ten medical centres in Iran have been hit by US-Israeli strikes [16].

Amnesty International issued an urgent call to all parties to protect civilians and respect international humanitarian law [17]. The New Humanitarian reported that US-Israeli strikes may have knocked out portions of Iran's internet infrastructure, compounding the suffering of a civilian population already struggling under the fog of war [18].

International Reactions and the Question of Escalation

The Gulf states have responded with outrage, even as their own territory comes under attack. Saudi Arabia termed the Iranian strikes "blatant Iranian aggression," while the UAE called them a "flagrant violation of national sovereignty" [8]. According to a Reuters analysis, Iran's decision to strike Gulf states — rather than limiting retaliation to Israel and US military assets — has paradoxically pushed these nations closer to supporting the US-Israeli campaign [8].

The United Kingdom permitted the US to use British military bases for defensive purposes. Portugal opened Lajes Field for the same reason. France dispatched its aircraft carrier toward the Mediterranean. Canada said it "can't rule out participation" in the conflict [8].

But elsewhere, the reaction has been sharply critical. The LSE's Centre for United States Politics published an analysis arguing that the strikes "may have turned Iran from a state with latent nuclear capability into one with a nuclear grievance" — potentially making the long-term proliferation risk worse rather than better [19]. The CSIS noted the "regional reverberations" were already reshaping alliances and security architectures across the Middle East in ways that would persist long after the fighting ends [20].

A critical question looms: will any Gulf state formally enter the war on the side of the US-Israeli coalition? Al Jazeera reported that, despite the strikes on their territory, most Gulf capitals remain deeply reluctant to escalate further, wary of the consequences of open war with their neighbor across the water [7].

The Oil Market Shock

The economic fallout has been immediate. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Iranian strikes hitting Gulf energy infrastructure, the world is experiencing its most severe oil supply shock since the 1973 Arab embargo. Gas prices, trucking costs, and airline fuel surcharges are all spiking [1]. Bahrain's refinery fire and the attacks on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field and Fujairah's oil facilities in the UAE compound the supply disruption [1][7].

FRED data shows WTI crude oil prices had been trading in the $60-67 range throughout February 2026, before spiking to $71.13 on March 2 — the most recent official closing figure available, and already reflecting the initial shock before prices reportedly climbed far higher in subsequent days [21].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 4, 2026CSV

The Kpler commodity intelligence firm assessed that the Hormuz crisis is "reshaping global oil markets" in real time, with buyers scrambling for alternative supply routes and strategic petroleum reserves under review in multiple countries [22].

What Comes Next

As the war enters its second week with no ceasefire in sight, several trajectories are possible. The installation of Mojtaba Khamenei signals that Iran's leadership intends to fight on, not negotiate. US forces have struck more than 3,000 targets in Iran since February 28, severely damaging the country's naval capabilities in the Gulf of Oman, where several warships have been destroyed [8]. Yet Iran's missile and drone arsenal, much of it dispersed and underground, continues to deliver punishing strikes across the region.

The nuclear question remains unresolved. While Operation Epic Fury targeted the remnants of Iran's nuclear program, analysts at the War on the Rocks policy journal and CSIS have warned that the damage to enrichment facilities may not be as complete as hoped — and that Iran's motivation to reconstitute a weapons program has never been stronger [19][23].

For the Gulf states caught in the crossfire — their skylines scarred by intercepted missiles, their oil infrastructure burning, their citizens wounded — the war has delivered a stark message about the fragility of regional security. None of them asked for this confrontation. And none of them can escape its consequences.