Greek Tanker Carrying Saudi Oil Successfully Navigates Strait of Hormuz

On the morning of March 9, 2026, a Suezmax tanker called the Shenlong reappeared on ship-tracking screens near the coast of India, its automatic identification system (AIS) blinking back to life after five days of radio silence. The vessel, operated by Greece's Dynacom Tankers Management and loaded with roughly one million barrels of Saudi crude from the port of Ras Tanura, had done what virtually no commercial vessel had managed since the start of the Iran war: it sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and lived to tell the tale [1][2].

The Shenlong's transit is far more than a shipping story. It is a test case for whether the world's most critical energy chokepoint can be reopened — and at what cost. It arrives at a moment when global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, hundreds of tankers sit idle outside the Persian Gulf, and governments from Washington to New Delhi are scrambling for alternatives to a waterway that, until ten days ago, carried 20% of the world's daily oil supply [3][4].

The Crisis: How the Strait of Hormuz Shut Down

The chain of events began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated military campaign targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, air defenses, and leadership — including strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [5][6]. Nearly 900 strikes were conducted in the first 12 hours alone.

Iran's retaliation was swift and multi-pronged. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles and drone swarms at U.S. military bases, Israeli territory, and oil infrastructure across the Gulf. Critically, the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and warned that any vessel attempting to transit would be attacked [7]. Sea mines were deployed, anti-ship missile batteries activated, and fast attack craft positioned throughout the 21-mile-wide waterway.

The effect was immediate and devastating. According to ship tracker MarineTraffic, tanker traffic through the strait plummeted 94% in a single day — from 50 vessels on February 28 to just 3 on March 1 [8]. By March 9, approximately 200 compliant tankers were stranded outside the strait, and roughly 300 oil tankers remained trapped within the Persian Gulf [9][10].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

A Billion-Dollar Gamble: George Prokopiou's Blockade Run

Enter George Prokopiou, the Greek billionaire shipowner who controls about 70 tankers through Dynacom Tankers Management. Since the conflict began, Prokopiou has sent at least five vessels — three crude tankers and two product carriers — into the strait, making him one of the only commercial operators willing to brave the IRGC's threats [11][12].

The Wall Street Journal compared Prokopiou to legendary Greek shipping magnates Aristotle Onassis and Stavros Niarchos, who built their fortunes by sailing into war zones when competitors would not [13]. The comparison is apt. With VLCC freight rates hitting an all-time record of $423,736 per day and Hormuz-to-China tanker rates reaching approximately $500,000 per day, the financial incentive is extraordinary — but so is the risk [14][15].

The security precautions taken by Dynacom tell the story of just how dangerous the transit has become. Armed guards were deployed on deck across all five vessels. AIS transponders — the electronic identification systems that broadcast a ship's location, speed, and heading — were switched off before entering the strait, a practice normally associated with sanctions-evading "shadow fleet" tankers rather than legitimate commercial shipping [1][2]. The Shenlong went dark on March 4 near the Persian Gulf and did not reappear until it was safely off the Indian coast five days later.

Beyond Prokopiou's fleet, the only other vessels still using the strait were shadow fleet tankers carrying Iranian oil in defiance of international sanctions — ships that, by their very nature, operate outside the rules-based maritime order [11].

The Insurance Crisis: Why Ships Won't Sail

Understanding why the Shenlong's transit is so remarkable requires understanding the insurance market that underpins global shipping. Within days of Operation Epic Fury, major Protection and Indemnity (P&I) clubs issued suspension notices canceling war risk coverage for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf [15][16].

Additional war risk premiums — the extra cost insurers charge for transit through conflict zones — surged from 0.15-0.2% of hull and machinery value to approximately 1%, representing roughly $1.34 million in additional insurance costs per voyage for a standard VLCC [4]. Many insurers simply refused to offer any coverage at all.

The cascade effect was swift. Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — the four largest container shipping lines — all issued guidance to their fleets to avoid the strait [8]. Without insurance, vessels cannot enter most ports, cannot secure financing, and cannot legally operate. The insurance withdrawal effectively sealed the blockade more thoroughly than any minefield could.

Source: CNBC / Seatrade Maritime / Lloyd's List

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

Saudi Arabia's Pipeline Pivot

For Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, the Hormuz closure triggered an emergency infrastructure pivot. Within days, Saudi Aramco began rerouting crude exports through the East-West Pipeline, known as Petroline, which connects the kingdom's eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu [17][18].

Tanker-tracking data showed that exports from Yanbu tripled compared to February averages, with at least five supertankers loading at the Red Sea port in the first week of March alone [19]. The Petroline has a normal capacity of about 5 million barrels per day, which can be surged to approximately 7 million barrels during emergencies — a critical safety valve that no other Gulf producer possesses [17].

However, the Red Sea route carries its own risks. Vessels departing Yanbu must still transit the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen had been conducting drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping as recently as late 2025. While the Houthis have recently paused these attacks, the route remains far from secure [17].

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi warned bluntly on March 6 that if the war continues, Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports entirely and declare force majeure. "This will bring down economies of the world," he said [3].

Global Market Shock

The oil market reaction has been violent. In the days immediately following the February 28 strikes, WTI crude surged from approximately $67 per barrel to above $71 — and that was before the full extent of the Hormuz closure became apparent [20]. By the second week of March, Brent crude had climbed as high as $119.50 per barrel, with WTI hitting similar levels, before retreating slightly after President Trump floated the idea of the U.S. "taking over" the strait [21][22].

FRED data shows the scale of the shock in stark terms: WTI was trading around $65 through most of February 2026, a figure that now seems like a relic of a different era. Analysts at major banks have warned that Brent could reach $135 per barrel if the closure persists for four months [22].

The VLCC freight market, meanwhile, has entered territory never before seen. The benchmark rate for very large crude carriers surged 124% in a matter of days, with the Mideast Gulf-to-China route jumping from $6.82 per barrel on February 27 to $15.32 per barrel by March 3 [14][15]. Oil tanker charter rates across all vessel classes have risen approximately 77% [14].

The Navy Escort Question

President Trump announced on March 3 that the U.S. Navy would begin escorting commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as possible," and ordered the Development Finance Corporation to offer political risk insurance for all maritime trade through the Gulf [23][24].

The reality has proven more complicated. A U.S. official told Fox News on March 7 that "we are not escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and we will not speculate on future operations" [24]. A senior administration official acknowledged there is "no specific timeline" for launching the escort program [25].

The fundamental challenge, as CNBC reported, is one of resources. The U.S. Navy told shipping industry leaders privately that it does not currently have sufficient naval assets to provide escorts while simultaneously continuing combat operations against Iran [25]. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, framed the dilemma: "A key question will be whether there are enough Navy assets to both escort ships as well as continue operations against Iran" [25].

India's Energy Emergency

The Shenlong's destination — Mumbai — underscores the acute vulnerability of Asian economies. India imports approximately 88% of its crude oil, and nearly half of those imports transit the Strait of Hormuz. About 60% of India's natural gas supplies follow the same route [26][27].

New Delhi has responded by accelerating a diversification strategy already underway. Before the crisis, roughly 60% of India's crude imports came from sources outside the Hormuz corridor. Since the escalation, that share has increased to nearly 70%, with India ramping up purchases from the Americas, Africa, and Russia [26].

But the alternatives come at a steep cost. Voyages from the Atlantic basin to Indian ports take 25-45 days, compared to 5-7 days from the Persian Gulf, translating into dramatically higher freight charges at a time when tanker rates are already at record levels [26]. The countries most dependent on Hormuz traffic — South Korea, Japan, India, and China — collectively account for the majority of the strait's daily throughput [27].

What Comes Next

The Shenlong's successful transit — along with the four additional Dynacom vessels reportedly following the same route — represents the first serious test of whether commercial shipping can resume through the strait under armed protection and with transponders disabled. If the remaining vessels make it through safely, it could encourage other operators to attempt the crossing, gradually reopening the chokepoint.

But the precedent it sets is a troubling one. A global maritime system that depends on armed guards, darkened transponders, and the willingness of individual billionaires to gamble with their crews' lives is not a functioning system. It is a system in crisis.

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

The broader implications extend far beyond oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz has long been the fulcrum of a global energy order built on the assumption that major maritime chokepoints would remain open, protected by international law and the implicit guarantee of U.S. naval power. The events of the past ten days have shattered that assumption. Even if the strait reopens tomorrow, the world has been reminded — in the starkest possible terms — that 20% of its oil supply flows through a 21-mile gap that can be shut down in hours.

As Fortune noted, "the old-world order of oil was just shattered by the closing of Iran's key global chokepoint" [28]. The Shenlong may have broken through the blockade. Whether the global energy system can do the same remains very much an open question.