DHS Reports 94% Drop in Border Crossings and Millions of Illegal Immigrant Departures Under Trump

The Department of Homeland Security announced in May 2026 that it had achieved twelve consecutive months of "zero releases" at the southern border, alongside a claim that more than 3 million unauthorized immigrants have left the United States since President Trump's second inauguration [1]. Border Patrol apprehensions at the southwest border fell to 8,943 in April 2025 — a 94% decline from the Biden administration's monthly average and 96% below the December 2023 peak of roughly 302,000 [2].

Those numbers represent a real and dramatic shift in migration patterns at the U.S.-Mexico border. But the headline figures obscure a series of methodological choices, legal battles, and human costs that complicate any straightforward reading of the data.

The Numbers: What CBP Data Actually Shows

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that FY 2025 southwest border apprehensions hit their lowest level since 1970 [3]. June 2025 recorded 25,228 total encounters nationwide — the lowest monthly total in CBP history — with just 8,024 Border Patrol apprehensions [4].

Source: CBP Enforcement Statistics

Data as of May 1, 2026CSV

The decline was already underway before Trump took office. Monthly encounters dropped from their December 2023 peak of 302,000 to roughly 48,000 by December 2024, a period spanning the final year of the Biden administration [3]. The Trump administration's policies then accelerated the decline sharply in early 2025. CBP uses the term "encounters" to aggregate migrants apprehended between ports of entry by Border Patrol and those deemed "inadmissible" at ports of entry by the Office of Field Operations — a distinction that matters when comparing across administrations [3].

For historical context, monthly apprehension numbers in the low-to-mid single-digit thousands were last seen in the early 1970s. The post-9/11 enforcement surge brought monthly numbers down from roughly 100,000 to about 30,000-40,000. The 2019 Remain in Mexico program and pandemic-era Title 42 restrictions pushed encounters to similar lows before a surge began in 2021 [3].

The "Millions Departed" Claim: A Methodological Minefield

DHS stated that more than 3 million unauthorized immigrants have left the country, including an estimated 2.2 million "self-deportations" and nearly 900,000 formal removals [1]. The administration has also reported more than 900,000 arrests [1].

The self-deportation figure is the most contested component. DHS derived the 2.2 million estimate from a decline in the foreign-born population measured by the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly Census Bureau household survey [5]. The Center for Migration Studies (CMS) called this the "Two Million Deportation Myth," arguing that DHS's initial announcement relied on a blog post from the Center for Immigration Studies whose analysis was based on CPS data never designed to track deportations [6].

Economist Jed Kolko and other analysts flagged methodological problems with using CPS for this purpose, including that the estimated January 2025 baseline population may have been inflated due to sampling challenges [5]. An independent estimate from CMS suggests actual self-departures may have been closer to 200,000 — roughly one-tenth of the DHS figure [6].

ICE's own enforcement data adds another layer of complexity. Every removal is classified based on whether the initial arrest occurred in the interior or at the border [7]. But as the Deportation Data Project documented, DHS's aggregated totals mix categories — ICE removals, CBP returns, voluntary departures, and self-deportations — that previous administrations tracked separately [7]. This makes direct historical comparisons unreliable. DHS has also removed the publication of detailed deportation numbers from its website, making independent verification harder [6].

Who Is Leaving — and Who Is Being Removed

CBP data through August 2025 shows that adult males represent 67% of encounters (244,604), adult females 18% (65,714), family units 12% (43,810), and unaccompanied children 3% (10,952) [8]. Mexican nationals account for 48% of all encounters. South Americans — primarily from Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador — make up 12% [8].

The sharp reduction in unaccompanied minors at the border (down to about 11,000 for the first eight months of 2025 compared to tens of thousands in prior years) reflects both the deterrent effect of enforcement policies and the suspension of most asylum processing at the border [8][9].

Whether protected categories are captured in the "millions departed" figure remains unclear. The administration suspended the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border under a presidential proclamation issued on inauguration day [10]. The expanded use of expedited removal — a fast-track process that bypasses immigration court, extended in January 2025 to cover anyone present in the U.S. for less than two years — means some individuals with potentially valid asylum claims may have been removed without full hearings [7].

Deterrence, Enforcement, or Something Else?

Multiple factors contributed to the decline beyond U.S. enforcement actions alone. Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 additional National Guard troops to Mexico's borders in February 2025 and continued her predecessor's enforcement policies [10]. Mexico accepted approximately 6,500 non-Mexican migrants from the United States and facilitated the repatriation of roughly 69,000 Mexican nationals between late January and June 2025 [10].

The Migration Policy Institute characterized the situation as "a new era of immigration enforcement" driven by the combination of border restrictions, interior enforcement, the suspension of asylum, and diplomatic pressure on Mexico and other transit countries [11].

Critics argue that deterrence-driven drops can be temporary, pointing to past episodes where enforcement surges redirected migration flows rather than permanently reducing them. Whether cartels have shifted routes to less-monitored sections of the border or pivoted to other smuggling methods remains an open question. CBP has not published systematic data on whether crossing attempts have simply moved to non-reported entry points [11].

The Fentanyl Question

The administration has pointed to drug seizure data as corroborating its border security narrative. CBP launched Operation Hourglass from January to March 2025, seizing over 1,484 pounds of fentanyl and 9,700 pounds of other drugs [12]. Operation Bodega Rip targeted warehouse facilities along the border in April 2025 [12].

Source: CBP Drug Seizure Statistics

Data as of Sep 30, 2025CSV

However, fentanyl seizure volumes have been declining since their April 2023 peak of 3,220 pounds per month. By March 2025, monthly seizures had dropped to 760 pounds — a trend that began under the Biden administration [12]. A GAO report noted that DHS "could better assess effectiveness" of its anti-trafficking efforts [13]. And an American Immigration Council analysis found that in FY 2023, 86.4% of individuals sentenced for fentanyl trafficking were U.S. citizens, complicating the connection between unauthorized border crossing and drug smuggling [14].

Legal Challenges and Court Pushback

Federal courts have pushed back on several mechanisms driving the departure numbers. The most high-profile legal battle involved the administration's use of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged Venezuelan gang members to a prison in El Salvador.

The Supreme Court initially blocked these deportations in April 2025, ruling that individuals subject to removal under the Act are entitled to adequate notice and judicial review [15]. A divided Fifth Circuit panel ruled in September 2025 that Trump's invocation of the Act was unlawful, blocking its use across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi [16]. In December 2025, a federal judge found that the government had denied due process to Venezuelan men deported under the Act, ruling they deserved a "meaningful opportunity" to prove they were not gang members before removal [17].

The expanded use of expedited removal also faces legal scrutiny. The January 2025 federal notice extending expedited removal to anyone in the U.S. for less than two years — regardless of where they were apprehended — marked a significant departure from the prior practice of limiting the process to those caught near the border [7].

The Human Cost

The enforcement surge has coincided with a record number of deaths in immigration detention. More people died in ICE custody in 2025 (30 deaths) than in the previous four years combined. As of mid-April 2026, at least 49 people had died in detention since January 2025 [18].

Source: NPR / WOLA

Data as of Apr 17, 2026CSV

The ICE detention population rose nearly 75% during 2025, climbing from approximately 40,000 to 66,000 — the highest level ever recorded [19]. For the first time, thousands of interior arrests led to detention in hastily constructed tent camps, including Camp East Montana, which faced allegations of beatings, medical neglect, insufficient food, and denial of access to counsel [19]. Three detained migrants died within a 44-day span at a tent facility at Fort Bliss in El Paso [18].

The American Immigration Council described conditions in the expanded detention system as "harsher and less accountable than ever," citing reduced oversight and a months-long cutoff in payments to medical providers at some facilities [19].

Economic Ripple Effects

The departure of immigrant workers — whether through formal removal, self-departure, or labor force withdrawal — has begun to register across industries with high concentrations of undocumented workers.

The foreign-born population declined from roughly 53.3 million in January 2025 to about 51.9 million by June 2025, with approximately 1.2 million foreign-born workers leaving the labor force [20]. Agriculture saw employment drop by 155,000 workers from March to July 2025, compared to a 2.2% increase during the same period in 2024 [21]. The construction industry, estimated to employ up to 1.5 million undocumented workers, has faced compounding labor shortages atop existing unfilled openings of 282,000 [20].

Source: FRED / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data as of Apr 1, 2026CSV

Source: BLS / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data as of Apr 1, 2026CSV

A Philadelphia Inquirer report in May 2026, citing a new study, found that Trump's deportations were costing American-born workers jobs in construction and housing — the opposite of the intended effect — because immigrant labor and native-born labor in these sectors tend to be complementary rather than substitutable [22]. A Bay Area Economic Institute report estimated California alone could lose more than $275 billion in GDP without its undocumented workforce, with construction shrinking by 16% and agriculture by 14% [23].

The unemployment rate stood at 4.3% as of April 2026, up from 3.5% in July 2023 [24]. Average hourly earnings rose to $37.41, a 3.6% year-over-year increase [25], though whether wage gains in affected sectors reflect labor scarcity or broader economic trends remains debated.

The Steelman Case for the Administration

Even critics who dispute the specific numbers acknowledge that unauthorized border crossings have dropped to levels not seen in half a century [3]. The "zero releases" policy — meaning no migrants apprehended at the border are released into the U.S. pending hearings — represents a structural break from the catch-and-release practices that defined prior surges [2].

Supporters argue the administration's approach has achieved what decades of bipartisan enforcement efforts could not: a sustained, months-long period of minimal unauthorized entry. The House Homeland Security Committee pointed to the FY 2025 data as proof of "the most secure border in American history" [3]. CBP's coordinated operations against fentanyl trafficking and its expansion of enforcement tools represent a more comprehensive approach than any prior administration deployed, the administration contends [12].

The counter-argument — that much of the decline was already underway, that the self-deportation numbers are inflated, and that the policy has produced serious economic and human costs — does not negate the fact that border encounters are at historic lows by any measure. The question is whether these levels are sustainable, at what price they were achieved, and whether the methods used can survive judicial review.

What Remains Unknown

Several gaps in the available evidence limit any definitive assessment. DHS's removal of detailed deportation data from its website has made independent verification harder [6]. The actual number of self-deportations remains genuinely unknown, with credible estimates ranging from 200,000 to 2.2 million [5][6]. CBP has not published data addressing whether crossing attempts have been redirected rather than eliminated. The long-term effects on asylum access, labor markets, and migration patterns will take years to measure.

The 94% figure is real as a snapshot of one metric at one point in time. The "millions departed" claim rests on contested methodology. Between those two facts lies the full complexity of what the Trump administration's immigration enforcement has — and has not — accomplished.