UK Labour MP Threatens to Trigger Leadership Challenge Against Starmer by Monday

Catherine West, the Labour MP for Hornsey and Friern Barnet, told the BBC on Friday that she will begin collecting nominations for a formal leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday morning unless a Cabinet minister steps forward first [1]. The ultimatum came less than 24 hours after Labour suffered its worst local election results in decades, losing 1,496 council seats and control of 38 councils across England, Scotland, and Wales [2].

"I'm putting people on notice — if I don't hear by Monday morning of some leadership hopefuls, I will be asking everybody in the Parliamentary Labour Party to put a name against my name, because we need to get this ball rolling," West said [1].

Who Is Catherine West?

West, 59, has represented her north London constituency since 2015. Before entering Parliament, she led Islington Council and worked for David Lammy MP on constituency casework [3]. She served on Labour's frontbench under both Corbyn and Starmer, most recently as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Indo-Pacific in the Foreign Office until she was removed in a reshuffle last year [4].

West sits on the soft left of the party — neither a Corbynite nor a firmly Starmerite figure. Her political profile is that of a loyalist turned critic, someone who served in Starmer's government before her dismissal gave her the freedom to speak openly. In her BBC interview, she described herself as both "a lone wolf" and "a stalking horse," adding: "You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate" [5].

She told the New Statesman she had been "inundated with support from MPs" and claimed backing from around 10 colleagues — though she acknowledged this is far from the 81 nominations (20% of Labour's 405 MPs) needed to trigger a formal contest [5][6].

The Election Results That Triggered the Crisis

Thursday's local elections across England, Scotland, and Wales produced results that multiple Labour figures described as catastrophic.

Source: BBC / LGC

Data as of May 9, 2026CSV

Labour lost 1,496 councillors and surrendered control of 38 councils [2]. In traditional heartland areas, the losses were particularly stark. Tameside Council in Greater Manchester fell from Labour control for the first time in nearly 50 years. In Wigan, Labour lost all 20 seats it was defending — every single one to Reform UK. In Salford, the party held only three of the 16 seats it defended [7].

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, gained 1,451 councillor positions and took control of at least 14 councils, including Sunderland, Gateshead, and Newcastle-under-Lyme [2][7]. Farage called the results "a truly historic shift in British politics" [8].

The results in Wales and Scotland were similarly bleak for Labour. The party lost its dominant position in the Welsh Senedd, and across Scotland the results reinforced the pattern of collapse [9].

The Scale of Internal Dissent

By Saturday afternoon, approximately 37 Labour MPs had publicly called for Starmer to resign or set out a departure timetable, according to tracking by the New Statesman and LabourList [10][11]. Ten of those calls came in the previous 24 hours alone, suggesting momentum was building rather than dissipating.

The names span the party's ideological range. John McDonnell, the former shadow chancellor from Labour's left, told LBC that "we could lose the Labour party" under Starmer's leadership [10]. Louise Haigh, a former Cabinet minister on the soft left, said Starmer "cannot lead Labour into another election" [10]. West herself called on Starmer to "outline his intention to resign as Prime Minister and oversee an orderly transition" [10].

However, there is a significant gap between public expressions of discontent and formal support for a challenge. The Irish Times reported that most discontented MPs adopt what it characterized as an "Augustinian position" — they want change, but not yet [4]. Many would prefer that Starmer negotiate his own departure rather than face the disruption of a contested leadership election while in government.

The 81-Signature Barrier

Under Labour's current rules, adopted at the 2021 party conference, any challenger to a sitting leader must secure nominations from 20% of Labour MPs in the Commons — currently 81 out of 405 [6][12]. This threshold was raised from 10% in 2021, a change backed by Starmer's allies to insulate future leaders from challenges [13].

If a challenger meets the 81-signature threshold, the incumbent leader is automatically placed on the ballot without needing to secure nominations separately [12]. The contest then moves to a one-member-one-vote ballot of party members using the alternative vote system [12].

West's current claim of around 10 supporters puts her far short of the requirement. The Campaign for Labour Party Democracy has backed a rule change that would reduce the threshold back to 10%, but no such change has been adopted [13].

The procedural reality means West's challenge functions less as a direct threat and more as a pressure mechanism — a stalking horse designed to smoke out whether a more senior figure is willing to move against Starmer.

The Stalking Horse Strategy and Cabinet Dynamics

West has been explicit that her preferred outcome is not to become leader herself. "I would prefer for the Cabinet to do a reshuffle within itself, where there's plenty of talent, and for Keir to be given a different role, which he might enjoy, perhaps an international role, and then for others to come to the fore," she told the BBC [1].

The "people on notice" are clearly the Cabinet heavyweights whom Labour MPs have discussed as potential successors. Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and Defence Minister Al Carns have all been mentioned in internal discussions [4][14].

Their responses have been carefully calibrated. Streeting publicly stated his support for Starmer [4]. Rayner, notably, had not commented on the election defeats by Saturday [4]. Soft-left MPs have reportedly discussed encouraging Miliband to stand [4]. Several Labour MPs told media outlets that the "serious candidates" were waiting for a stalking horse to "allow them to swoop in" [14].

There is also significant interest in Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is not currently an MP. West acknowledged the Burnham factor but argued the situation was too urgent to wait for him to find a parliamentary seat: "There is no certainty that the Manchester mayor will get a seat in Parliament... the current situation has to be addressed with urgency" [5].

Senior party figures reportedly asked West to delay her challenge until early the following week, but she refused [14].

The Policy Case Against Starmer

The discontent directed at Starmer is rooted in specific policy decisions, not just poor electoral performance.

Welfare reform: In mid-2025, the government introduced plans to cut £5 billion from disability and sickness benefits by 2030, affecting up to 3 million people. The most contested element was a proposed overhaul of Personal Independence Payments (PIP) that could have stripped 370,000 current claimants of access [15]. After 126 Labour MPs threatened to block the measure, the government made eleventh-hour concessions, removing plans to tighten PIP eligibility for existing claimants. Even so, 49 Labour MPs voted against the government — the largest backbench rebellion of Starmer's premiership [16].

The two-child benefit cap: Starmer initially refused to scrap the two-child limit on Universal Credit, despite his manifesto commitment to "develop an ambitious strategy to reduce child poverty." He eventually reversed course and abolished the cap effective April 2026, but the delay alienated Labour supporters and drew accusations of broken promises [17].

The Peter Mandelson appointment: Starmer's decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as British Ambassador to Washington provoked fury across Labour factions, seen as emblematic of a governing style that prioritized establishment connections over party values [18].

Union relations: Unite general secretary Sharon Graham issued a stark warning to Starmer to "change or die," and union leaders demanded urgent talks with the government, accusing Labour of "losing touch with working people" [18].

Where the Polls Stand

The electoral arithmetic facing Labour is grim. The latest YouGov voting intention poll (May 4-5, 2026) placed Reform UK first on 25%, with Labour at 18%, the Conservatives at 17%, Greens at 15%, and Liberal Democrats at 14% [19].

Source: YouGov

Data as of May 5, 2026CSV

The government's net approval rating stands at approximately -49%, making the Starmer government nearly as unpopular as the Conservative government was immediately before it lost the July 2024 general election [20]. Starmer's personal approval rating sits around -47% [20].

Seat projections extrapolated from the local election results paint an even more alarming picture for Labour. Electoral Calculus modelling based on the 2026 results projects Reform UK winning 284 seats, Labour falling to 110, and the Conservatives at 96 — a 301-seat loss for Labour compared to its 2024 result [21].

Source: Electoral Calculus / PollCheck

Data as of May 9, 2026CSV

The combined Labour-Conservative vote share in polls has fallen to 37.7%, down from 57.4% at the 2024 general election, reflecting the fragmentation of the traditional two-party system [22].

Historical Precedent: The 2016 Corbyn Challenge

The most direct precedent for a mid-term leadership challenge in Labour is the 2016 contest between Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith. That challenge was triggered after the Brexit referendum result, when 172 Labour MPs voted no confidence in Corbyn versus just 40 who supported him [23].

Despite that overwhelming parliamentary opposition, Corbyn won the subsequent membership ballot decisively, taking 61.8% of the vote to Smith's 38.2% [23]. The episode demonstrated a structural reality of Labour leadership contests: the parliamentary party and the membership can have fundamentally different views, and the membership vote is what decides the outcome.

The electoral aftermath of the 2016 challenge was mixed. Labour went on to perform better than expected in the 2017 general election under Corbyn, gaining 30 seats. But the party then suffered a devastating defeat in 2019, falling to 202 seats — its worst result since 1935 — before Starmer replaced Corbyn as leader.

The parallel is imperfect. Corbyn faced a challenge from a position of membership strength but parliamentary weakness. Starmer faces discontent from both his parliamentary party and, according to polls, the broader electorate. Whether Labour's current membership — which has changed significantly since the Corbyn era — would back a challenger over the incumbent remains an open question.

The Constitutional Complications

If a challenge were formally triggered, the procedural timeline would be significant. The NEC would need to set the timetable for a contest, including a campaign period and member ballot [12]. Previous contested elections have taken several months from trigger to result.

For a sitting prime minister, a leadership contest would create a period of acute political uncertainty. Starmer has framed this directly: "I'm not going to walk away from the job I was elected to do in July 2024. I'm not going to plunge the country into chaos" [4].

A contested leadership election would freeze Labour's legislative programme during the campaign period. It would also complicate the government's position in any ongoing international negotiations, as counterparts would face uncertainty about whether the person across the table would remain in post.

There is limited precedent for a Labour prime minister facing a formal leadership challenge while in office. The closest analogue is the internal pressure on Tony Blair to set a departure timetable in 2006, which resulted in a managed transition to Gordon Brown without a contested election.

Starmer's Defence

Starmer accepted responsibility for the local election losses but rejected calls to resign. "I'm not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos," he said [4]. He is expected to address the parliamentary party on Monday.

His allies argue that mid-term local election losses are common for governing parties and that the correct response is to adjust policy and messaging, not to change leader. They point to the eventual reversal on the two-child benefit cap and concessions on welfare reform as evidence of a government capable of listening and adapting [17].

The counter-argument from Starmer's supporters is that a leadership contest would be a gift to Reform UK and the Conservatives, consuming months of political attention while the government's legislative agenda stalled. They also note that West's inability to name a single Cabinet backer undermines the credibility of the challenge.

What Happens Monday

The immediate question is whether West follows through on her threat and begins formally collecting nominations on Monday morning. Even if she does, the 81-signature threshold means the process would take days or weeks, not hours.

The more consequential dynamic is whether a Cabinet minister breaks ranks. If Streeting, Rayner, or Miliband were to signal willingness to stand, the calculus would change fundamentally. As of Saturday evening, none had done so publicly.

The gap between the 37 MPs calling for Starmer to go and the 81 needed to force a contest is significant but not insurmountable — particularly if the coming days bring further polling evidence of Labour's decline or if by-election results in the weeks ahead confirm the local election trend.

What is clear is that Starmer faces the most serious internal crisis of his leadership at a moment when his party is polling at historic lows, his government's approval ratings rival those of the administration it replaced, and a new political force in Reform UK is redrawing the map of British politics in ways that threaten Labour's existence as a major party.