Swalwell's Resignation Reshapes California Governor's Race

On April 10, the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published allegations from four women accusing Rep. Eric Swalwell of sexual misconduct, including a former staffer who said he raped her [1][4]. Within 72 hours, the seven-term congressman had suspended his gubernatorial campaign, lost the endorsements of nearly every major Democratic institution backing him, and announced his resignation from Congress [2][3]. The speed of Swalwell's collapse — from frontrunner to political exile in a single weekend — has left California's already fractured governor's race in a state of emergency with ballots set to drop for early voting on May 4 [5].

The Allegations That Ended a Campaign

The most serious accusation came from a former Swalwell staffer who told CNN that the congressman raped her in 2024 after a night of heavy drinking, alleging she was "heavily intoxicated," physically injured, and repeatedly told him to stop [4]. The same woman described a prior incident in 2019 when she woke up naked in a hotel room with Swalwell after drinking and had no memory of what occurred; she was working in his office at the time [4]. Three additional women described a pattern in which Swalwell initiated mentorship-like communication with younger women interested in politics before escalating to sexual messages, unsolicited explicit photos, and in some cases unwanted physical encounters [1][4].

Swalwell denied the allegations, calling them "false and politically motivated," but acknowledged "mistakes in judgment" in a social media post Sunday evening [3]. By Monday, prosecutors in New York had opened a criminal investigation, and the House Ethics Committee launched its own inquiry [6][7].

The reaction from Democratic leadership was swift and unequivocal. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi both renounced their support [8]. Over 50 former staffers called for his resignation [8]. The California Federation of Labor Unions, Service Employees International Union California, California Teachers Association, and California Medical Association all rescinded their endorsements [5].

Where the Polls Stood

Before the allegations surfaced, Swalwell had emerged as the leading Democrat in a race that lacked a clear frontrunner. An Emerson College poll from early April showed him at 17% — ahead of Republicans Steve Hilton (14%) and Chad Bianco (14%), and fellow Democrats Tom Steyer (11%) and Katie Porter (8%), with a full 25% of voters undecided [9].

Source: Emerson College Polling / NBC News

Data as of Apr 8, 2026CSV

That polling position made Swalwell one of three Democrats in a virtual tie at the top. His departure removes the highest-polling Democrat from the ballot — though, because he withdrew after the March 6 filing deadline, his name will still appear on the June 2 primary ballot [10][11]. Any votes cast for Swalwell will effectively be wasted, further complicating the arithmetic for Democrats in a top-two primary system where vote-splitting is already their central anxiety.

The Money Race: Steyer's $108 Million Advantage

The financial landscape of this race is dominated by one figure: Tom Steyer has spent approximately $108 million on advertising since January 2025, nearly twelve times his closest competitor [5][12]. That sum has purchased over one million ad airings, according to the San Francisco Chronicle [12].

Source: NBC News / San Francisco Chronicle

Data as of Apr 12, 2026CSV

Swalwell, by contrast, had spent roughly $9 million on advertising [5]. His campaign had also drawn scrutiny over FEC filings showing more than $300,000 in childcare-related expenses paid from campaign funds between 2019 and 2025 — including payments to his wife, Brittany Swalwell, labeled as "childcare" — which prompted separate FEC complaints earlier this year [13][14].

Under California election law, Swalwell's remaining gubernatorial campaign funds cannot simply be transferred to another candidate. A suspended campaign committee can pay outstanding debts, refund contributions, or donate to charity or other political committees, but the candidate cannot pocket the money or hand it directly to a rival [11]. Given that his campaign is suspended rather than formally terminated, those funds sit in a kind of limbo — available for winding down operations but not for redeployment in the race.

Katie Porter's campaign, meanwhile, has positioned itself as the grassroots alternative. Her spokesperson noted that Porter "has consistently stood at the top of the field since day one, without yet spending a dime on paid advertising" and is "the only candidate never accepting corporate PAC funds" [5]. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who had been polling at just 3%, saw his affiliated PAC — California Back to Basics — pull in over $10 million in contributions in the days following Swalwell's exit and launched a $14 million advertising blitz [5].

Who Inherits Swalwell's Voters?

This is the central question reshaping the race. Internal polling from Swalwell's campaign in late February showed that nearly half of his supporters named Katie Porter as their second choice, while only 14% named Tom Steyer [5]. That data, if it holds, would be a significant boost for Porter in a race where single-digit margins separate the candidates competing for the top two spots.

But prediction markets tell a different story. On Polymarket, Steyer's odds surged from 6.3% on March 22 to roughly 59% by mid-April [15]. On Kalshi, he sits at approximately 55%, up from 14.4% on April 4, while Porter and Mahan are each near 15% [15]. The divergence between second-choice polling and betting market confidence likely reflects Steyer's overwhelming financial advantage and his ability to dominate the airwaves during the critical final weeks before the primary.

Political science professor Eric Schickler of UC Berkeley captured the uncertainty: "There's some level of discomfort among some Democrats about a billionaire who has not held office becoming the party standard bearer" [12]. His colleague Christian Grose added simply: "It's so fluid. It's hard to say" [12].

Steyer moved quickly to consolidate institutional support, picking up endorsements from three former Swalwell backers — Assemblymembers Nick Schultz and Tasha Boerner and state Senator Corey Jackson — as well as Rep. Ro Khanna [5].

The Top-Two Primary Problem

California's nonpartisan top-two primary system — in which all candidates regardless of party appear on the same ballot and only the top two advance to November — creates a structural risk for Democrats that Swalwell's exit has amplified [16].

Two Republican candidates have significant support: Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host and onetime strategist for British Prime Minister David Cameron who received Donald Trump's endorsement, and Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff who won 49% of state GOP delegate support at the party convention versus Hilton's 44% [12][17].

Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell estimated before Swalwell's exit that there was a 27% chance both Republicans would advance to November, locking every Democrat out of the general election [17]. With the Democratic vote now potentially more fragmented — Swalwell's name on the ballot siphoning some votes, remaining candidates splitting the rest — that probability has likely increased, though no post-exit modeling has been published.

The paradox for Republicans is that their path requires both candidates to finish in the top two, which means splitting the GOP vote almost equally. As Republican strategist Rob Stutzman noted, this dynamic "cuts against human nature" since the candidates must simultaneously compete against and protect each other [17]. Both Hilton and Bianco share a policy agenda centered on deregulation, opposition to environmental regulations like CEQA (the California Environmental Quality Act, which governs development approvals), reversing prison closures, and eliminating the state gas tax [17].

Historical precedent for two candidates from the same party advancing in a California statewide top-two primary is thin. In the 2016 U.S. Senate race, Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez both advanced to the general election, but that occurred in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one [16]. Republicans have not won a statewide office in California in two decades [17]. A two-Republican general election would be unprecedented for the governor's race.

The Case for Stabilization

There is a counterargument to the chaos narrative. A crowded Democratic field was already the party's primary liability. The 2018 gubernatorial primary featured 27 candidates, and internal Democratic panic over vote-splitting was a recurring theme even then [18]. In 2026, sixty-one candidates filed for the governor's race [11].

Swalwell's early departure — seven weeks before the primary rather than, say, two — gives Democratic voters and institutions time to consolidate. The unions and major endorsers who backed Swalwell are now free to redirect their organizing infrastructure. If his supporters follow their stated second-choice preferences toward Porter, or if Steyer's financial dominance produces a bandwagon effect, the Democratic field could effectively narrow to one or two viable candidates before June 2.

Political strategist Marva Diaz pushed back on this optimism, telling CalMatters the situation has "caused more confusion" among voters and that she had "never seen something so in flux while ballots are about to drop" [3]. The counterpoint is that flux seven weeks out is preferable to a five-way Democratic split on election day.

Swalwell's Congressional Seat: The Downstream Fallout

Swalwell's resignation from Congress creates a separate set of consequences for California's 14th Congressional District, which covers parts of the East Bay including Dublin, Pleasanton, and Livermore, and is home to approximately 739,000 residents [19][20].

Under California law, Governor Gavin Newsom must call a special election within 14 calendar days of the vacancy — by approximately April 27 [21]. The special election itself must then be held 126 to 140 days after the proclamation, which could place it in late August or September, or potentially align it with the November general election [21].

The district is heavily Democratic, with a roughly three-to-one registration advantage over Republicans [20]. Special elections in California congressional districts typically cost several million dollars, borne by the counties within the district [22]. The 2025 statewide special election on redistricting cost an estimated $282 million across all counties, though a single-district special election would be a fraction of that figure [22].

During the interim, the district's residents will lack a voting representative in the House — a gap that could last months depending on the timing Newsom selects. With the current House margin razor-thin, the vacancy also has implications for the national balance of power, reducing the Republican majority by one seat until a replacement is seated.

Was This Voluntary?

Swalwell framed his resignation as a choice. "Expelling anyone in Congress without due process, within days of an allegation being made, is wrong," he said in his statement. "But it's also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties. Therefore, I plan to resign my seat in Congress" [8].

The framing obscures the reality that Swalwell faced a House ethics investigation, a criminal probe in New York, and mounting bipartisan pressure for expulsion [6][7][8]. His fundraising trajectory in the governor's race had been strong — he was the top-polling Democrat and had built significant union backing — which makes it unlikely he would have abandoned the campaign voluntarily absent the allegations.

There is no public evidence that the DCCC or House leadership engineered his exit for strategic reasons related to the governor's race. The pressure came entirely from the misconduct allegations and the institutional response to them. If anything, Swalwell's departure created problems for the national party by opening a House vacancy and throwing a major state race into disorder.

What Happens Next

The June 2 primary is now 49 days away. Early voting begins May 4 [5]. Swalwell's name remains on the ballot [10]. The major Democratic candidates — Steyer, Porter, and the suddenly surging Mahan — have less than seven weeks to make their case to an electorate where 25% of voters were undecided even before the field was reshuffled [9].

For Democrats, the nightmare scenario is straightforward: their voters split across multiple candidates while Hilton and Bianco each consolidate enough Republican support to claim the top two spots. For Republicans, it is the inverse — one of them pulls too far ahead, a Democrat slips into second place, and the November race becomes a formality in a state where the GOP hasn't won statewide since 2006 [17].

The filing deadline passed on March 6, so no new candidates can enter [10]. The field is set. The question now is whether Swalwell's departure produces the consolidation Democrats need — or the fragmentation they fear.