Republican Election Officials Predict Courts Will Strike Down Trump's Mail-In Voting Executive Order

On March 31, 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled "Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections," directing the U.S. Postal Service to restrict mail ballot delivery and ordering federal agencies to compile citizenship verification lists for every state [1]. Within days, 23 state attorneys general filed suit, voting rights organizations mobilized legal teams, and two Republican election officials went on national television to predict the order would be struck down [2].

The intra-party dissent is the sharpest signal yet that Trump's second attempt to federalize mail voting restrictions faces the same constitutional obstacles that doomed the first.

What the Executive Order Does

The order has three main components [3][4]:

Federal voter rolls. The Department of Homeland Security, coordinating with the Social Security Administration, must compile and transmit to each state a "State Citizenship List" of confirmed U.S. citizens who will be 18 or older by the next federal election and reside in that state [4].

USPS gatekeeping. The Postal Service is directed to deliver mail ballots only to voters who appear on state-approved voter lists that incorporate the federal citizenship data. Ballot mail must use envelopes marked "Official Election Mail" with unique Intelligent Mail barcodes for tracking, and undergo a USPS design review [3].

Enforcement teeth. Attorney General Pam Bondi is authorized to investigate states and localities that distribute ballots to ineligible voters — and to potentially prosecute local election officials. The order also threatens to withhold federal election security funding from noncompliant jurisdictions [5].

Election law professor Rick Hasen of UCLA called the order "likely unconstitutional" and said the timeline makes implementation "virtually impossible" before November 2026, even without court intervention [1].

The Republican Officials Who Broke Ranks

Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt and former Maricopa County, Arizona Recorder Stephen Richer appeared together on ABC's "This Week" on April 5 and agreed the order would not survive judicial review [6][2].

Schmidt, appointed by Republican Governor Josh Shapiro's predecessor and retained for his bipartisan credibility on election administration, said he was "confident the courts would block" the order [6]. Richer — a Republican who won office in Maricopa County defending the integrity of the 2020 election against Trump-aligned challenges — said he agreed with "some of the elements in the executive order and some of the aspirations," but that "the form matters" and he expected the order to "be enjoined very quickly" [6].

Their critique centers on a structural constitutional argument rather than policy disagreement. Both officials pointed to the Elections Clause of Article I, Section 4 of the Constitution, which grants states primary authority to determine the "Times, Places and Manner" of holding congressional elections, with Congress — not the president — holding the power to "make or alter" those regulations [7][8].

"The Constitution conspicuously omits any independent authority in the President" over election administration, as the 23-state lawsuit puts it [9].

The Constitutional Case Against the Order

The legal vulnerability is well-mapped because courts already addressed a nearly identical question last year. On March 25, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14248, "Preserving and Protecting the Integrity of American Elections," which attempted to impose mail ballot receipt deadlines, condition federal election funding, and grant the federal government access to state election databases [10].

Two federal courts blocked major provisions:

• The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia issued a preliminary injunction on April 24, 2025 — just 30 days after the order was signed — in LULAC v. Executive Office of the President, pausing sections that directed changes to voter registration forms and conditioned election funding [10][11].

• The U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts followed on June 13, 2025, issuing a broader injunction in State of California v. Trump that blocked additional enforcement provisions [10][11].

Both courts found that the president lacks constitutional authority to set voting policy — that power belongs to states and Congress under the Elections Clause [11].

Source: Brennan Center for Justice / CRS

Data as of Apr 6, 2026CSV

The 2026 order goes further than its predecessor by directing a federal agency — USPS — to serve as a gatekeeper over ballot delivery, a function that has always been administered by state and local election officials [3]. Legal scholars at Just Security, the Brennan Center for Justice, and the Campaign Legal Center have all published analyses arguing this expanded scope makes the new order more constitutionally vulnerable, not less [11][12][13].

48 Million Voters in the Crosshairs

The practical stakes are enormous. Nearly one in three Americans — roughly 48 million voters — cast their ballots by mail in the 2024 general election, accounting for 30.3% of total turnout [14]. That figure was down from 43% in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic drove a surge in mail voting, but it remains far above pre-pandemic levels [14].

Source: States United Democracy Center

Data as of Mar 1, 2025CSV

The geographic concentration of mail voting makes the order's impact uneven. In states with all-mail systems — Washington (100%), Colorado (94%), Hawaii (94%), Utah (85%) — mail is not an alternative voting method but the primary one [14]. Arizona (84%) and California (83%) also rely heavily on mail ballots [14]. An average of 23.3% of voters in no-excuse absentee states used mail, compared to just 5.4% in states that still require an excuse [15].

Several of the highest-usage states are politically competitive or lean Republican. Utah, a solidly red state, conducts nearly all its elections by mail. Arizona, the swing state where Richer administered elections, saw 84% mail voting. Montana, another Republican-leaning state, was at 67% [14].

The partisan breakdown of mail voters has shifted since 2020, when Democrats disproportionately voted by mail while Republicans favored in-person voting. By 2024, the gap had narrowed as Republican campaigns increasingly encouraged their supporters to vote early and by mail — making restrictions on mail voting a potential liability for the party's own turnout [15].

The Fraud Question

Proponents of the order, including Trump himself, frame it as necessary to prevent noncitizen voting and mail ballot fraud [4]. The White House fact sheet accompanying the order states that it "ensures citizenship verification and voter eligibility in federal elections" [4].

The empirical record does not support the premise that mail voting produces significant fraud. Peer-reviewed research published in Statistics and Public Policy found "no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall" [16]. The Brennan Center for Justice, reviewing multiple studies and post-election audits, found incident rates of mail ballot fraud ranging between 0.0003% and 0.0025% of ballots cast [17]. A specialized DOJ unit examining the 2002 and 2004 federal elections found a fraud rate of 0.00000013% [17].

Supporters of the order argue that these figures undercount fraud because not all fraudulent ballots are detected, and that the risk of fraud is a separate question from its documented incidence. The Heritage Foundation's election fraud database, frequently cited by order proponents, catalogs roughly 1,500 proven cases of voter fraud of all types over two decades — a number that critics note represents a vanishingly small fraction of the hundreds of millions of ballots cast in that period [17].

Mail ballots are paper-based and leave an audit trail, making them compatible with risk-limiting audits — the gold standard for post-election verification [16]. Several Republican election officials, including Richer, have made this point publicly: the security features built into modern mail voting systems (signature verification, ballot tracking, envelope barcodes) already address the concerns the executive order claims to solve [6].

The 23-State Lawsuit

On April 3, 2026, New York Attorney General Letitia James led a coalition of 23 attorneys general in filing suit to block the order [9]. The states represented are Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin, plus the District of Columbia [9].

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro joined the suit separately, with Schmidt's office providing supporting documentation about the order's impact on the commonwealth's election infrastructure [18].

The lawsuit argues that the order violates the Constitution by "seizing control of elections from the states and Congress" and warns it would "create widespread confusion and chaos by forcing last-minute changes to election systems" ahead of the 2026 midterms [9]. Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield filed an additional suit focusing on the order's impact on Oregon's all-mail voting system, which has been in place since 2000 [19].

No Republican attorneys general have joined the legal challenges. But notably, no Republican attorney general has publicly committed to defending the order or intervening on the administration's behalf, either — a silence that election law observers interpret as reluctance to stake out a position that could prove unpopular with mail-voting constituents in their own states [2].

Which Republican Officials Support the Order?

The visible Republican support for the order has come primarily from congressional leaders and Trump-aligned advocacy groups rather than from state election administrators who would bear implementation responsibility.

Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley praised the order as "a critical step toward election integrity" [5]. Several Republican members of Congress, particularly those who have championed voter ID legislation, voiced support.

But the split among Republicans who actually run elections is telling. Beyond Schmidt and Richer, the order drew a muted response from Republican secretaries of state. ProPublica reported that even before this order, several red states had been quietly expanding vote-by-mail access, with Republican legislators and election administrators recognizing that their own voters rely on it [20]. The institutional pressure cutting against the order is straightforward: state election officials — regardless of party — view federal control over ballot delivery as an intrusion on their authority and operational capacity.

Enforcement Mechanisms and Their Limits

The order builds in two primary enforcement levers [5][3]:

Federal funding conditions. The order threatens to withhold federal election security grants from states that do not comply. However, most federal election funding flows through the Election Assistance Commission under the Help America Vote Act, and redirecting or conditioning those funds typically requires congressional authorization — not executive action alone [10].

DOJ investigation authority. The order directs the attorney general to investigate noncompliant jurisdictions and potentially prosecute officials who distribute ballots to ineligible voters. This provision is the most coercive, but it faces the same constitutional problem as the rest of the order: if the underlying directive is unconstitutional, the enforcement mechanism built on it is equally invalid [11].

If courts issue a preliminary injunction — which the 2025 precedent suggests could come within 30 to 80 days of filing — both enforcement levers would be frozen along with the rest of the order [10].

The Litigation Timeline and the Midterm Clock

The 2026 midterm elections are seven months away. State primaries begin as early as June in some jurisdictions, with mail ballot preparation starting weeks before that. The timeline is the order's most practical obstacle, independent of its legal vulnerabilities.

Based on the 2025 precedent, a preliminary injunction could arrive by early May — before most states begin printing and mailing ballots [10]. But even without a court order, election administrators say the compressed timeline makes compliance functionally impossible. Building federal citizenship verification lists, integrating them with state voter files, and reprogramming USPS mail-handling systems would take months under the most optimistic scenario [1][3].

A separate case already before the Supreme Court adds another layer of uncertainty. The Court heard arguments on March 23, 2026, in a case about whether federal law preempts state laws allowing mail ballots to arrive after Election Day — a case originating from Mississippi that could affect grace-period rules in 13 states and the District of Columbia [21]. A decision is expected by late June [21].

If the executive order litigation follows the standard path — district court injunction, appeal to a circuit court, potential emergency application to the Supreme Court — a final resolution is unlikely before November 2026. The order could remain in legal limbo through the midterms, creating exactly the "widespread confusion" that the 23-state lawsuit warns about [9].

What Happens Next

The legal trajectory is predictable based on recent history. Federal courts blocked the 2025 executive order on substantially the same constitutional grounds now being raised against the 2026 version. The 2026 order is broader in scope, reaching into USPS operations in a way the earlier order did not, which gives challengers additional arguments.

The political trajectory is less certain. Schmidt and Richer represent a strand of Republican thinking about elections that prioritizes state-level administration and institutional credibility over partisan messaging. Whether their view prevails within the party — or whether the order becomes another front in the ongoing Republican debate over voting access — depends on factors that no court can resolve.

What the courts can resolve, and likely will, is the constitutional question. The Elections Clause assigns election administration to states and Congress. The president has no independent authority to direct how ballots are delivered, who appears on voter rolls, or which voters receive mail ballots. Two Republican officials who have spent their careers administering elections under that framework are betting the judiciary will say so again.