Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party Secures Seats in South Australia Election

On March 21, 2026, voters in South Australia delivered a result that will reverberate through Australian politics for years. While Premier Peter Malinauskas's Labor government cruised to a historic landslide re-election, the more consequential story unfolded on the right flank of Australian politics: Pauline Hanson's One Nation recorded 22.1% of the statewide primary vote, outpolling the Liberal Party's 19.0% and shattering the two-party duopoly that has governed the state since the 1930s [1][2].

The Liberal Party, reduced to as few as four lower house seats, suffered its worst result in its 82-year history [3]. One Nation, which polled just 2.6% statewide in 2022, achieved a swing of roughly 19.5 percentage points—an eruption of voter sentiment that caught many observers off guard, despite weeks of polling that foretold the party's surge [4].

The Numbers: A Historic Realignment

Labor won at least 32 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly, its best result since 1930 and its highest seat count ever [2]. The party secured nearly 38% of the primary vote [5].

The Liberals, by contrast, collapsed from 13 seats to as few as four, recording a 16.7-percentage-point swing against them [3]. Leader Ashton Hurn presided over a party that had churned through four leaders in four years and was beset by scandals across multiple electorates [6].

One Nation's 22.1% primary vote placed it second statewide. In the lower house, the party won the seat of Ngadjuri—a regional electorate north of Adelaide—where candidate David Paton, deputy mayor of Adelaide Plains, secured 34.5% of first-preference votes [7]. This marked the first time One Nation had won a lower house seat outside Queensland in any Australian state parliament [2].

The party was also competitive in Hammond, where craft distiller Robert Roylance polled 27% of first preferences against Labor's 27.5% and the incumbent Liberal's 22.1% [8]. In Narungga, on the Yorke Peninsula, One Nation's Chantelle Thomas secured 37% of the primary vote [9]. Several seats remained in doubt as postal votes were counted.

In the Legislative Council (upper house), preliminary results indicated One Nation won three of the 11 contested seats. State leader Cory Bernardi—a former Liberal federal senator—was elected alongside Carlos Quaremba and Rebecca Hewitt [10][11].

Source: SA Electoral Commission / Antony Green's Election Blog

Data as of Mar 24, 2026CSV

Comparing the Trajectory: From 2.6% to 22%

One Nation's performance in South Australia had been negligible before 2026. The party polled 2.6% statewide in the 2022 House of Assembly election, or 6.6% in the 19 seats it actually contested [4]. In the 2022 Legislative Council, it recorded 4.2%—3.4% in Adelaide electorates and 6.2% outside the capital [12].

The party's federal high-water mark came in Queensland in 1998, when it recorded 22.7% of the state primary vote in the federal election. Its 2026 South Australian result essentially matched that record in a state where it previously had minimal presence [13].

In other state parliaments, One Nation holds two seats in the Queensland Legislative Assembly and one seat in the Western Australian Legislative Council [13]. The South Australian breakthrough—with potentially up to four lower house seats and three upper house seats—represents by far its strongest showing in any state parliament in a generation.

Where One Nation Won: The Geography of Discontent

One Nation's support was concentrated outside metropolitan Adelaide. The party led with 27% in non-metropolitan areas, ahead of Labor (24%) and the Liberals (21%) [14].

The seat of Ngadjuri encompasses regional communities north of Adelaide, including parts of the Adelaide Plains and mid-north farming country. Hammond, where One Nation was competitive, covers the Murraylands east of Adelaide, including Murray Bridge, Mannum, Tailem Bend, and Pinnaroo [8]. Narungga spans the Yorke Peninsula [9]. Stuart, another seat where One Nation led on first preferences, is a vast outback electorate stretching from Port Pirie to the state's northern, eastern, and western borders [9].

These are predominantly regional and rural electorates characterised by agricultural economies, aging populations, and distance from Adelaide's service infrastructure. The party finished in the top two in roughly half of the state's 47 electorates [3].

What Drove the Vote: Disaffection Over Policy

Multiple polls and post-election analyses converge on a striking finding: One Nation's surge was driven more by anger at the major parties than by enthusiasm for One Nation's specific platform.

A YouGov poll conducted before the election found that 52% of One Nation's supporters said they felt "unrepresented" by the major parties. Only 10% of Liberal supporters who shifted to One Nation said they were drawn by the party's specific policies [14].

Adelaide University emeritus professor Clement Macintyre described One Nation as "a party of disaffection" and said voters were "frustrated with the major parties" [15]. Cory Bernardi reinforced this reading: "People don't believe the promises anymore, they don't believe the funding being provided for things is being used effectively" [15].

The top issues cited by One Nation supporters fell into three categories:

Cost of living and housing: Supporters described acute financial pressure—"single parents renting houses struggling to get kids to school and watching food prices rise every week," as SBS reported [15]. Research cited in The Conversation found that One Nation's strongest supporters are not the most disadvantaged voters but "the people who fear becoming poor" [14].

Immigration: One Nation made immigration reduction a centrepiece of its campaign, calling for an annual visa cap of 130,000—a reduction of more than 570,000 from current levels. The party argued this would "ease pressure on housing, wages, and infrastructure" [16]. Bernardi went further, saying the party wanted to "deprioritise Muslim immigration" and reduce numbers overall [14].

Energy costs and net zero: One Nation campaigned against renewable energy targets and net-zero commitments, calling for Australia to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, build more coal-fired power stations, and embrace nuclear energy. The party pointed to South Australia's uranium deposits—about 25% of global reserves—as grounds for a domestic nuclear industry [17][18].

The Bondi Effect

The timing of One Nation's surge is significant. National polling data shows the party's support more than doubled between July 2025 (7%) and December 2025 (17%), coinciding with the December 2025 Bondi terrorist attack [19]. A Resolve poll conducted December 17–20, 2025, showed One Nation at 16%, up two points [19].

Hanson connected the attack to immigration and multiculturalism, criticising the government for allowing "the wrong people" to migrate to Australia [19]. While correlation does not establish causation, the attack heightened the salience of immigration and national security—issues on which One Nation campaigns aggressively.

Political analysts at The Conversation noted that "economic strain, grievance, fear and the aftermath of the Bondi terrorist attack have created the perfect conditions" for the party's rise [6].

The Liberal Collapse: A Party in Crisis

One Nation's rise cannot be understood separately from the Liberal Party's implosion. The SA Liberals entered the election having cycled through four leaders in four years. Multiple sitting members had left the party to sit as independents, including former MP Dan Cregan (Kavel) and MLC Jing Lee—"symptomatic of a party where its members feel increasingly unwelcome," as one analysis put it [6].

Scandals plagued the party across electorates including Mount Gambier, Narungga, MacKillop, and Black [6]. The party's primary vote fell from 35.7% in 2022 to 19.0%—a collapse of 16.7 percentage points [3].

The result raises existential questions for the South Australian Liberal division. In the lower house, with as few as four seats, the party may struggle to staff shadow ministry portfolios, participate effectively in parliamentary committees, or maintain organisational infrastructure across the state.

Nationally, the SA result followed the federal Liberal-National Coalition's defeat under Peter Dutton in the 2025 federal election, which analysts described as the worst result in the Liberal Party's history [19]. The federal Coalition has since split twice [19].

Balance of Power: Where One Nation's Influence Lies

In the House of Assembly, Labor's projected 32-plus seats give it a comfortable majority in the 47-seat chamber. One Nation does not hold the balance of power in the lower house [20].

The upper house is a different matter. The Legislative Council's 22 seats are elected by proportional representation, and no single party controls the chamber. Preliminary results from the 11 contested seats showed Labor winning four, One Nation three, the Liberals two, and the Greens one, with one seat in doubt [11].

Combined with holdover members from 2022, the full Council composition gives Labor nine seats—short of the 12 needed for a majority. One Nation's three seats make it a significant crossbench bloc. Labor will need crossbench support to pass legislation in the upper house, and One Nation's votes could prove decisive on contested bills [21].

Hanson signalled before the election that One Nation MPs would play a "disruptive role" in state politics [20]. The party's upper house members could seek to amend or block legislation on energy policy, immigration-adjacent state policies, and budget measures they consider wasteful.

One Nation's Policy Platform: Promises vs. Track Record

One Nation's three most concrete campaign commitments in South Australia were:

1. Overturning the state ban on commercial nuclear energy and pursuing nuclear power generation, pointing to the state's uranium reserves [18]. The fiscal cost of nuclear construction in Australia is estimated at $8–16 billion per reactor, with construction timelines of 10–15 years, based on international comparisons [17].

2. Advocating for a national immigration cap of 130,000 visas per year, down from approximately 700,000 [16]. Immigration policy is primarily a federal responsibility, limiting what state parliamentarians can directly legislate. Economists have noted that significantly lower migration may reduce long-term government revenue by billions by the 2040s, as skilled migrants often contribute more in tax than they receive in services [17].

3. Opposing net-zero emissions targets and calling for withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, with support for new coal-fired power stations [17]. South Australia currently generates over 70% of its electricity from renewables, making this a direct challenge to the state's existing energy trajectory.

On legislative effectiveness in other jurisdictions, One Nation's track record is limited. The party has historically struggled to pass private members' bills, with most of its legislative influence exercised through crossbench negotiations on government bills rather than through its own legislative agenda [13]. Political scientists have noted the party is "defined more by what it opposes than by a comprehensive vision for the nation" [17].

What Political Scientists Say

The Conversation's analysis characterised the result as revealing "tectonic shifts in Australian politics" [6]. The pattern—centre-right establishment parties losing voters to populist alternatives—mirrors trends in the United States, parts of Europe, and New Zealand.

Analysts cautioned against treating the result as purely a One Nation success story. The party's high primary vote translated into relatively few seats because of Australia's preferential voting system, where One Nation's second preferences often did not flow to like-minded candidates. In many electorates, One Nation polled strongly on first preferences but did not receive enough preferences from eliminated candidates to win [22].

The Daily Aus noted that despite 22% of the statewide vote, One Nation secured only one confirmed lower house seat—roughly 2% of available seats—because its vote was spread broadly rather than concentrated in individual electorates [22].

Looking ahead, One Nation views the South Australian result as a springboard. The party has flagged the upcoming Victorian state election and the federal Farrer byelection as its next targets [4]. Whether the conditions that fuelled its SA surge—a weakened Liberal Party, cost-of-living pressures, heightened anxiety about immigration—persist nationally will determine whether March 21, 2026, marks a one-off protest or the beginning of a structural realignment in Australian politics.

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 24, 2026CSV

The Questions That Remain

Several unknowns will shape the coming parliamentary term. Final results in up to six lower house seats were still being determined as postal votes were counted. One Nation could add Hammond and Narungga to its lower house tally, or it could finish the count with Ngadjuri as its sole seat [9][8].

In the upper house, One Nation's three members will face immediate tests: whether they can work constructively with other crossbenchers, whether they can extract concessions from the government on their priority issues, and whether they can maintain party discipline—a persistent challenge for One Nation, which has historically lost members to defections and internal disputes [13].

For the major parties, the result demands reckoning. Labor won comfortably but must contend with the reality that one in five South Australian voters chose a party whose platform is fundamentally hostile to Labor's policy agenda on climate, immigration, and energy. The Liberals face a more elemental question: whether a centre-right party that cannot outpoll One Nation in its own traditional heartlands has a viable future in its current form.

As Bernardi put it on election night: "This is a declaration that things are not good" [23].