Oil Prices on Track for Record Monthly Surge Amid Iran War Supply Disruptions

One month into the U.S.-Iran military conflict that began on February 28, 2026, global oil markets are experiencing a disruption without precedent. The International Energy Agency has called it "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" [1]. Brent crude has surged 55% to $112.57 per barrel, while WTI has climbed 49% to $99.64 — price movements that dwarf prior supply shocks in both speed and scale [2]. The crisis is centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply normally transits [3]. That chokepoint is now, for practical purposes, closed.

Source: FRED / EIA

Data as of Mar 23, 2026CSV

The Scale of Disruption: Three Times the 1973 Crisis

The numbers are stark. Gulf oil-producing countries have cut total production by more than 10 million barrels per day, and flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from approximately 21 million bpd to roughly 2 million bpd [4]. Marketplace has characterized the shock as "roughly three times bigger than the 1970s crisis" [5].

For comparison: the 1973 Arab oil embargo removed 4.5 million bpd from markets and quadrupled prices from $2.90 to $11.65 per barrel [6]. The 1979 Iranian Revolution took out approximately 5 million bpd [6]. The 1990 Gulf War disrupted about 4.3 million bpd, roughly 6.5% of global demand at the time [7]. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while significant, directly displaced only about 1.5 million bpd of trade flows [7]. The current disruption exceeds all of these combined in absolute terms.

Source: IEA / EIA / Historical Records

Data as of Mar 29, 2026CSV

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance put it plainly: "You cannot take 8 to 10 million barrels a day of oil and 20 or so percent of the liquefied natural gas market off the world stage without having significant repercussions" [4].

The Hormuz Chokepoint: A Phantom Blockade

The Strait of Hormuz is roughly 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes just two miles wide in each direction. Before the conflict, it handled approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil per day, along with a significant share of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade [3].

The disruption is not purely military. A "phantom blockade" has emerged: even where physical passage remains theoretically possible, the legal and financial architecture of global shipping — insurance requirements, sanctions compliance, port state control — has made transit commercially unviable for most vessel operators [8]. Over 150 ships have anchored outside the Strait rather than attempt passage [8]. QatarEnergy, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, declared force majeure on all exports [8].

Beyond Hormuz, Iran's own export terminals at Kharg Island — which handled the bulk of Iran's 1.39 million bpd crude exports prior to the conflict — are offline [9]. Key pipelines connecting Gulf producers to terminals outside the Strait exist but were designed for limited, short-term use. As one engineering assessment concluded, the bypass infrastructure was "sized for a short disruption — this is not that" [10].

Asia Bears the Heaviest Burden

The geographic concentration of Hormuz-dependent energy imports means the crisis falls disproportionately on Asia. Eighty-four percent of oil and 83% of LNG shipped through the Strait is bound for Asian markets [11].

The five countries most exposed by import dependency:

Japan sources approximately 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East, with roughly 70% transiting through Hormuz [11]. The country has virtually no domestic production and limited strategic reserves relative to consumption.

South Korea derives 81% of its energy from fossil fuel imports, with an energy trade deficit equivalent to 5.7% of GDP [11]. A sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices translates to a GDP hit estimated at 0.3-0.5% for import-dependent Asian economies, according to the Dallas Fed [12].

Thailand carries the worst energy deficit among tracked nations at 7.4% of GDP, making it acutely sensitive to any sustained price increase [11].

Taiwan is entirely reliant on imported natural gas, with one-third of its LNG supply transiting Hormuz [13].

India and China together account for the largest absolute volume of Hormuz-transiting oil, though their economies are somewhat more diversified. China had been purchasing 91% of Iran's crude exports — primarily through small independent "teapot" refiners receiving discounted barrels at $3-9 below Brent — making it uniquely affected by Iranian supply loss [9].

The Council on Foreign Relations has described the situation as "energy chaos in Asia," with Southeast Asia's 700 million people facing cascading impacts from the cutoff [13].

Spare Capacity: The Gap Between Claims and Reality

The question of whether major producers can offset the disruption has a sobering answer. Saudi Arabia claims total production capacity of 12 million bpd, implying spare capacity of roughly 1.8-2 million bpd — representing over half of total OPEC+ spare capacity [14]. The UAE's ADCOP bypass pipeline, which runs from Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman (bypassing Hormuz), operates at about 71% utilization, leaving approximately 440,000 bpd of additional capacity [14]. ADNOC has stated it can temporarily raise throughput to 1.8 million bpd [14].

But these figures are marginal against the scale of loss. Combined spare and bypass capacity across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq totals perhaps 3-4 million bpd at maximum surge — against a disruption of over 10 million bpd [14] [10]. The arithmetic does not work.

Why haven't these producers committed to maximum output? Several factors are at play. Saudi Arabia has historically been cautious about deploying spare capacity, which functions as strategic insurance against future disruptions [14]. The UAE's infrastructure expansion to over 5 million bpd total capacity remains in progress [14]. And there are questions about whether publicly committing to offset disruption would put these nations at odds with Iran while the conflict remains active [15].

The IEA authorized a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11 — the largest coordinated drawdown ever [1]. But strategic reserves are a stopgap, not a substitute for sustained production.

Speculation Versus Supply: Dissecting the Price Surge

The 55% surge in Brent crude prices reflects both physical supply loss and speculative positioning. Disentangling the two is difficult, but several data points are revealing.

Money managers boosted net-long Brent crude positions to 320,952 lots by late February — the highest level in nearly two years [16]. In the week ending February 3 alone, net-long positions increased by 31,332 lots [16]. Hedge funds including Citadel, Coatue Management, Balyasny, and Point72 pre-positioned for oil upside, with several betting on sustained prices above $100 per barrel [17]. Citadel highlighted the potential for backwardation — a market structure where near-term prices exceed futures prices, signaling expectations that tight supplies will persist [17].

More troubling are indications of potential insider trading. Approximately $580 million in oil futures were placed in a sudden spike 16 minutes before President Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iranian power plants [18]. Six newly created trading accounts, established in February, made roughly $1 million each by correctly betting on the February 28 strike date, with contract volumes 8-10 times larger than typical levels [18]. Investigations are underway.

The historical record on "war premium" oil spikes offers limited reassurance. During the 1990 Gulf War, oil prices roughly doubled in two months, then reversed within about six months as the military situation clarified and Saudi Arabia increased production [7]. But the current disruption involves a much larger volume of supply and a chokepoint — the Strait of Hormuz — whose reopening timeline depends on military and diplomatic outcomes that remain highly uncertain. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan have noted that while some premium reflects media-driven anxiety, the physical supply loss is real and substantial enough to sustain elevated prices even if speculative froth recedes [17] [19].

Source: BLS / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data as of Feb 1, 2026CSV

The Downstream Cascade: Who Pays

The cost pass-through from sustained high oil prices is spreading across industries and households.

Aviation faces perhaps the most immediate concentrated impact. U.S. airlines alone face an estimated $24 billion in additional jet fuel costs, with global costs projected to exceed $100 billion [20]. Jet fuel prices have risen from $2.50 per gallon to $3.93 per gallon, requiring airlines to raise fares by at least 11% to maintain margins [20].

Freight and trucking are absorbing sharp increases. Fuel now represents 30-40% of total fleet operating costs, up from a more typical 25-30%, compressing already thin margins and feeding into consumer prices for goods [2].

Diesel price surges vary dramatically by country, reflecting differences in subsidies, taxes, and import dependency. The Philippines has seen an 81.6% increase, Nigeria 78.3%, Malaysia 57.9%, and the United States 41.2% [21].

Source: BusinessToday / IEA

Data as of Mar 29, 2026CSV

Plastics and petrochemicals — downstream products of oil and natural gas liquids — face supply constraints beyond price increases. The Atlantic Council has warned that the Hormuz crisis will "ripple across plastics and food supply chains," affecting everything from packaging to fertilizer production [22].

Low-income households are disproportionately affected because energy costs consume a larger share of their budgets. The IEA has published options for governments to ease price pressures on consumers, including targeted subsidies and temporary tax reductions [23]. Several governments have activated relief mechanisms: India has cut fuel excise duties, South Korea has expanded energy vouchers for vulnerable populations, and the U.S. has discussed — but not yet enacted — a temporary federal gasoline tax holiday [23].

The Road to Normalization: Timeline and Infrastructure

If Iran's oil exports remain offline — whether through formal sanctions, physical blockade, or continued conflict — the question becomes how long alternative supply arrangements would take to materialize.

The short answer: months at minimum, and more likely years for full normalization. Iran's pre-war exports of roughly 1.39 million bpd are relatively small in the context of the total disruption [9]. The larger problem is that the Strait of Hormuz handles production from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar in addition to Iran. Replacing this volume requires either reopening the Strait or building massive new bypass infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (Petroline) and the UAE's ADCOP pipeline represent the main existing bypass routes, but their combined capacity falls far short of what is needed [10]. Engineering assessments suggest that meaningfully expanding pipeline capacity to Red Sea and Indian Ocean terminals would require 18-36 months of construction even under emergency timelines [10]. New LNG export terminals bypassing the Strait would take even longer.

The IEA's strategic reserve release of 400 million barrels provides a buffer, but at the current rate of supply deficit, this represents approximately 40 days of coverage [1]. If the conflict stabilizes and Hormuz reopens within weeks, prices would likely retreat substantially — though probably not to pre-conflict levels, given lasting risk premium and infrastructure concerns. If the disruption extends beyond three months, the structural adjustments required in global energy trade would be far more extensive and costly.

U.S. domestic production offers some offset but cannot meaningfully accelerate in the near term. The Dallas Fed has noted that U.S. shale producers require 6-9 months to significantly ramp output, and many operators have prioritized capital discipline and shareholder returns over production growth [12].

The Broader Economic Calculus

The macroeconomic implications extend well beyond energy markets. Each $10 per barrel increase in oil prices is estimated to reduce global GDP growth by approximately 0.1-0.2 percentage points, with import-dependent economies facing steeper impacts [12]. With Brent having risen roughly $40 per barrel since mid-February, the implied drag on global growth is significant.

Central banks face an acute dilemma: oil-driven inflation pushes toward tighter monetary policy, while the growth drag argues for accommodation. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan have all signaled they are monitoring the situation but have not yet adjusted policy rates in response [19].

The crisis has also accelerated conversations about energy transition timelines. Al Jazeera's analysis argues that "the oil and gas price shock from the Iran war won't just fade away," suggesting that the vulnerability exposed by Hormuz dependence will accelerate investment in renewables, electrification, and strategic reserve expansion — though these are medium- and long-term responses to what is, for now, an acute crisis [15].

One month in, the scale of this disruption has no modern parallel. The critical variables — the duration of the conflict, the timeline for Hormuz reopening, the willingness of spare-capacity holders to surge production, and the behavior of speculative markets — remain unresolved. What is already clear is that the global energy system's dependence on a single 21-mile-wide waterway has moved from theoretical vulnerability to lived reality.