Lebanon Appeals for International Intervention as Casualties Mount

On March 9, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun addressed European Union leaders in a virtual summit with a stark message: his country was being destroyed, and the world was watching in silence. With more than 600 people dead, 800,000 displaced, and Israeli airstrikes hammering Beirut's southern suburbs for the second week running, Aoun proposed a four-point peace initiative and called on the international community to "intervene with strength and seriousness to stop the attacks on Lebanon and its people" [1]. The appeal marked a dramatic escalation in Lebanon's diplomatic campaign — and an implicit acknowledgment that the November 2024 ceasefire, once hailed as a path to peace, had comprehensively failed.

From Ceasefire to Conflagration

The roots of the current catastrophe trace back to November 27, 2024, when Israel, Lebanon, and five mediating countries signed a ceasefire agreement mandating a 60-day halt to hostilities. Under its terms, Israel was to withdraw from southern Lebanon while Hezbollah was to pull its forces north of the Litani River and begin a disarmament process [2]. The United States extended the agreement on January 26, 2025, pushing the deadline to February 18 [3].

But the ceasefire was never more than a fragile veneer over unresolved tensions. Israel continued launching what the United Nations characterized as "near daily attacks" into Lebanese territory. By February 2026, UNIFIL had documented more than 10,000 Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and 1,400 military activities inside Lebanese territory since the ceasefire began [4]. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence reported that Hezbollah was not disarming — instead, the group had accelerated efforts to rebuild its military capabilities, including in areas south of the Litani River where it was prohibited from operating [3].

The situation deteriorated beyond repair on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials in strikes across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kerman [5]. Hezbollah responded by firing six projectiles at northern Israel — a relatively modest volley that nonetheless provided Israel with the justification it had been seeking for a full-scale military campaign against its northern neighbor [6].

Ten Days of Devastation

Since March 2, when Israel issued evacuation warnings to residents of more than 53 villages across southern Lebanon and began a sustained aerial bombardment, the human toll has escalated at a pace that has shocked even veteran observers of the region's conflicts.

According to Lebanon's Ministry of Health, at least 634 people have been killed and 1,586 wounded since the offensive began, with the daily death toll averaging nearly 100 civilians [7]. The Centre for Information Resilience verified 99 Israeli airstrikes and their aftermath across Lebanon between March 2 and 9, including 41 incidents in Beirut alone [8]. On March 7, Israel warned Lebanon it would pay a "heavy price" and carried out what CNBC described as a "rare airborne raid" — a ground operation launched from helicopters into Lebanese territory [9].

The displacement figures are equally staggering. UNHCR reported that nearly 700,000 people have been displaced in a single week, with more than 100,000 fleeing in a single 24-hour period [10]. Only about 120,000 of the displaced have reached government-designated collective shelters; the vast majority are sheltering with relatives, in makeshift arrangements, or simply on the roads [10]. More than 78,000 Syrians have fled from Lebanon into Syria since the escalation began, along with over 7,700 Lebanese nationals [10].

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 12, 2026CSV

A President Caught in the Middle

President Aoun, a former Lebanese Armed Forces commander who took office in January 2025, has attempted to thread an extraordinarily difficult needle. On March 9, he publicly accused Hezbollah of working to "collapse" the Lebanese state and warned that the group's actions could turn the country into a "second Gaza" [11]. In the same address, he proposed a four-point plan calling for a full truce with Israel, international logistical support for the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah, direct negotiations with Israel under international auspices, and permanent security arrangements along the border [12].

The proposal represented an unprecedented step: a sitting Lebanese president openly calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah and direct talks with Israel, positions that would have been politically unthinkable even months earlier. But desperation has shifted the calculus. With his country's infrastructure being systematically destroyed and its population on the move, Aoun has concluded that Lebanon cannot survive another prolonged war between Israel and Hezbollah on its territory.

Yet both sides have rebuffed his initiative. Israel and the United States turned down proposals for negotiations and de-escalation [6]. Hezbollah, for its part, has shown no willingness to surrender its weapons — the very issue at the heart of the conflict. The group sees the current moment as an existential fight, not a negotiating opportunity.

The Humanitarian Abyss

The International Rescue Committee issued an emergency alert as Lebanon's humanitarian infrastructure buckled under the strain. More than 80 percent of Lebanon's population was already living in poverty before the latest escalation, a legacy of the country's devastating economic collapse that began in 2019 [13]. The war has compounded every dimension of that crisis.

Hundreds of shelters are overcrowded, with inadequate sanitation and insufficient essential supplies, the UN's humanitarian chief told the Security Council [7]. The Norwegian Refugee Council estimated that approximately 300,000 people had been displaced within less than 100 hours of the escalation's beginning [14]. UNICEF reported that children are paying a "devastating toll," with schools shuttered and medical facilities overwhelmed [15].

UNHCR has delivered around 168,000 emergency items to more than 63,000 displaced people across over 270 government-designated collective shelters. But the agency's operation in Lebanon is only 14 percent funded — a fraction of what is needed to address a displacement crisis of this magnitude [10]. Lebanon also already hosts one of the largest refugee populations per capita in the world, with an estimated 1.12 million Syrians, including 636,000 registered with UNHCR as of September 2025 [10].

International Law Under Strain

Rights organizations have raised urgent alarms about the legality of Israel's operations. Amnesty International documented that the Israeli military's "overly broad mass evacuation orders" were "sowing panic and fuelling humanitarian suffering," characterizing the pattern of forced displacement as potentially violating international humanitarian law [16]. The organization found that thousands of homes and civilian structures were destroyed or heavily damaged — in some cases in areas outside active combat zones under Israeli control [4].

Human Rights Watch reported on March 5 that the Israeli military had called for evacuating all of southern Lebanon, a sweeping order affecting hundreds of thousands of people [17]. The Just Security project at New York University published an analysis concluding that Israel's military campaign in Lebanon was illegal under multiple frameworks of international law [18].

In November 2025, UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial executions Morris Tidball-Binz had already condemned repeated Israeli strikes in populated areas, warning that such operations may constitute war crimes [19]. The March 2026 escalation has dramatically intensified those concerns, with the death toll and scope of destruction far exceeding the patterns documented in 2025.

UNIFIL: A Peacekeeping Force Under Fire

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, deployed since 1978, is itself under siege. On March 6, an attack struck a Ghanaian contingent base in southwestern Lebanon, and three peacekeepers were injured inside their base in Al Qawzah during heavy firing [20]. UNIFIL reported recording "several airstrikes and hundreds of incidents of firing across the Blue Line and 84 air violations" in recent days [20].

The force has already been weakened by budget cuts and political pressure. In August 2025, the UN Security Council — under pressure from the United States and Israel — voted to wind down the UNIFIL mission entirely, setting a cessation of operations deadline of December 31, 2026, with full withdrawal by 2027 [21]. The number of peacekeepers had already fallen from approximately 10,000 to 7,500 by February 2026, with further reductions planned [20].

The impending departure of UNIFIL raises a critical question: who will monitor the border once the blue helmets leave? Without an international presence, southern Lebanon could become an entirely unmonitored zone — a prospect that alarms both Lebanese officials and regional analysts.

The Wider War

Lebanon's crisis cannot be understood in isolation. It is one front in a rapidly expanding regional conflict triggered by the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Tehran responded with more than 500 ballistic and naval missiles and nearly 2,000 drones in the days following the strikes, with roughly 40 percent aimed at Israel and 60 percent at US targets in the region [5].

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

The economic reverberations have been immediate. Oil prices surged from approximately $67 per barrel in late February to nearly $95 by March 9, a roughly 42 percent increase in under two weeks, as markets priced in the possibility of a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern energy supplies [22].

For Lebanon, the wider war has transformed what might have been a manageable border conflict into an existential crisis. The country finds itself trapped between an Israeli military conducting its most extensive operations in Lebanon since 2006 and a Hezbollah that — despite being weakened by the 2024 war and the assassination of multiple senior commanders — retains sufficient capability to provoke further Israeli retaliation.

What Comes Next

The UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon stated that "ongoing military actions will not deliver a lasting win to anyone" [7]. But that assessment, while widely shared by international observers, has found little traction with the belligerents.

Israel has shown no indication of halting its operations, framing the campaign as necessary to neutralize the Hezbollah threat along its northern border once and for all. The United States, Israel's primary ally and arms supplier, has not publicly pressured Jerusalem to stop — and is itself a co-belligerent in the wider war against Iran. European leaders have expressed concern but have not taken concrete action beyond diplomatic statements.

Lebanon's government, meanwhile, lacks the military capacity to either restrain Hezbollah or defend against Israel. The Lebanese Armed Forces, with roughly 80,000 troops, are dwarfed by both the Israeli military and Hezbollah's parallel fighting force. President Aoun's proposal for international support to help the army disarm Hezbollah remains the most concrete diplomatic initiative on the table — but without buy-in from either Washington or Jerusalem, it is unlikely to gain traction in the near term.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Lebanon in March, but the prospect of meaningful action is limited by US veto power and the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Iran conflict [23]. For the estimated 816,000 Lebanese who have been displaced — many for the second or third time in two years — the international community's response has been, in the words of the UN's humanitarian briefing, recognition that Lebanon is a country "exhausted by other people's wars" [24].

As the bombardment continues and the death toll mounts, Lebanon's appeal for intervention grows more urgent — and the silence that greets it grows more deafening.