Egg Prices Drop Sharply After Months of Increases

A year ago, a carton of eggs was the most politically charged item in American grocery stores. Avian influenza had decimated the nation's laying flock, prices had smashed records, and eggs became a national symbol of out-of-control food inflation. The Department of Justice launched an antitrust investigation. The USDA pledged a billion dollars to fight the crisis. Politicians on both sides of the aisle pointed fingers.

Now, in a reversal as dramatic as the spike itself, egg prices are in freefall — and the consequences are rippling in unexpected directions.

The Numbers Tell the Story

The average retail price of a dozen Grade A large eggs stood at $2.50 in February 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1]. That represents a 42% decline from a year ago, when the same carton cost $5.90, and a 60% drop from the all-time peak of $6.23 reached in March 2025 [2].

But the retail number only hints at the scale of the correction. The wholesale price that farmers receive has collapsed even more dramatically — plunging more than 90% to roughly 70 cents per dozen, according to USDA market reports [3]. That figure is well below the estimated 98 cents to $1.05 it costs to actually produce a dozen eggs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data as of Mar 13, 2026CSV

"There's never been a better time to buy eggs," said Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board. "Our message right now is, pick up another dozen." [3]

The trajectory has been striking in its speed. From the March 2025 peak of $6.23, retail prices fell to $5.12 in April, $4.55 in May, and then steadily declined through the rest of the year — $3.78 in June, $3.60 in July, $3.59 in August, and $3.49 in September. By December 2025, eggs were back to $2.71, and they continued falling into 2026 — $2.58 in January and $2.50 in February [1].

What Caused the Crash: A Flock Rebuilt

The primary driver is biological: the nation's egg-laying flock has recovered from last year's catastrophic avian influenza outbreak with remarkable speed.

Between mid-October 2024 and early March 2025, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused the depopulation of 50.7 million egg-laying hens — approximately 8% of the conventional flock eliminated in January 2025 alone [4]. Production fell off a cliff: in February 2025, the U.S. produced only 6.6 billion table eggs, down from 7.5 billion the month before — a collapse of nearly a billion eggs in a single month [5].

But farmers began rebuilding immediately, aided by a $1 billion USDA investment announced in February 2025 that included accelerated restocking programs, enhanced biosecurity measures, and compensation for culled flocks [6]. The egg-type hatchery supply flock reached 4.95 million hens as of February 1, 2026 — up 28% year over year [7]. And the total U.S. table egg flock stood at 307.9 million hens, 2.9% more layers than the same period in 2025 [7].

"We've had the time to expand the flock of egg-laying chickens. And that's helped bring down prices," said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University [3].

By January 2026, the U.S. produced 9.196 billion eggs — up 2% from a year earlier — with both the average number of layers and average production per layer rising [8]. The USDA projects total table egg production will reach 7,950 million dozen in 2026, up 7.5% from 2025 projections [7].

The Other Side of the Coin: Farmers in Crisis

While consumers celebrate cheaper eggs, the crash has created an acute financial crisis for producers. With wholesale prices at roughly 70 cents per dozen and production costs hovering near a dollar, many farmers are selling every carton at a loss.

"If you can tell me a way to produce eggs and not lose money, I'm all ears," said Mike Puglski, who manages a mid-sized egg operation [3].

Source: BLS / FRED

Data as of Mar 13, 2026CSV

The pain is compounded by a demand problem. Seasonally adjusted wholesale demand is estimated to be 40% to 50% below the 2010-2024 baseline average, according to USDA data [7]. The reason: during the period of record-high shell egg prices in 2024 and 2025, foodservice buyers — restaurants, bakeries, institutional kitchens — switched en masse to liquid eggs and other processed alternatives. Many haven't switched back.

Industry observers warn that this dynamic creates a vicious cycle. "If many family farms shut down, future egg shortages and price spikes may follow," CNN reported, citing industry leaders who fear the current surplus is masking structural fragility [9].

The financial impact is already visible in corporate earnings. Cal-Maine Foods, the largest U.S. egg producer, reported Q2 fiscal 2026 net income of $102.8 million — a 53.1% decline from the prior year, with net sales down 19.4% to $769.5 million [10]. The company's stock has dropped to around $89, and analysts project earnings per share of just $0.96 for the upcoming quarter — a fraction of the $4.12 EPS reported in Q1 [10].

The Bird Flu Shadow: Recovery Is Not Immunity

While the current season has been far less devastating than last year's, avian influenza has not disappeared. In January 2026, bird flu losses totaled roughly 2.8 million birds — about 1% of the conventional flock, compared to the 8% wiped out in January 2025 [3]. Recent outbreaks hit operations in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina [3].

Whether the reduced severity is due to improved biosecurity practices, changes in the virus itself, or simply luck remains an open question among veterinary scientists. The USDA's five-pronged strategy, initially announced by Secretary Brooke Rollins in early 2025, has included enhanced surveillance, faster response protocols, and investments in vaccine research [6].

But the egg market's extreme sensitivity to disease outbreaks means the current abundance could reverse quickly. Once new pullets are placed after a culling event, those birds need roughly five to six months before they begin laying eggs at productive levels [7]. That biological constraint means any significant new outbreak could trigger another supply crunch within months.

"Egg markets remain sensitive to disease outbreaks, and those forecasts can change quickly if a new wave of bird flu tightens supply," the USDA's Economic Research Service warned in its most recent Food Price Outlook [11].

The Price Gouging Question

The sharp price swings have kept alive questions about whether market forces alone explain the boom-and-bust cycle — or whether corporate behavior played a role.

In March 2025, the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division opened an investigation into major egg producers, examining whether companies were sharing information about supply and pricing in ways that artificially inflated prices during the avian flu crisis [12]. The inquiry focused on whether producers used the cover of HPAI outbreaks to coordinate price increases.

Cal-Maine Foods disclosed in an SEC filing that it was among the companies under investigation [13]. Farm Action, an agricultural advocacy group, urged both the FTC and DOJ to launch formal probes, citing Cal-Maine's gross profits surging 342% through the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [14].

The egg industry has consistently pushed back on gouging allegations. Producers argue that prices were driven entirely by the catastrophic supply loss from avian flu, and that the current price collapse — with farmers selling below cost — is itself evidence that the market is functioning on supply-and-demand fundamentals, not collusion.

The DOJ investigation remains ongoing, but some observers have noted that the dramatic price decline coincided with increased regulatory scrutiny. "Did DOJ's investigation of the egg industry cause egg prices to fall?" asked one analysis, noting the timing but acknowledging that flock recovery was the more likely explanation [15].

The Bigger Picture: Eggs and the Inflation Story

Eggs occupy a unique position in the American inflation narrative. In the broader food economy, grocery prices are projected to rise 2.5% in 2026 — slightly below the 20-year historical average of 2.6% [11]. Beef and veal are expected to climb 5.5%, and non-alcoholic beverages 5.2% [11].

Against that backdrop, eggs are the only major food-at-home category projected to see prices decline in 2026 — the USDA expects a 27.4% drop on average compared to 2025 [11]. That makes them a rare bright spot in household budgets, particularly for lower-income families for whom eggs represent a critical, affordable protein source.

The Consumer Price Index stood at 327.46 in February 2026, reflecting a 2.7% year-over-year increase in overall prices [16]. The decline in egg prices is providing modest downward pressure on the food component of CPI, even as other categories push in the opposite direction.

Yet for many consumers, the psychological impact of last year's sticker shock lingers. In January 2026, 62% of consumers surveyed by FMI – The Food Industry Association told researchers they felt "very or extremely concerned" about rising food prices — high, though 6 percentage points lower than a year earlier [11].

What Comes Next

The egg market in spring 2026 finds itself in an unusual equilibrium: prices low enough to strain producers but not yet low enough to trigger the farm closures that could set the stage for the next shortage. Easter, which falls in April, could provide a seasonal demand boost that offers temporary relief to struggling farmers [3].

The USDA expects average egg prices in 2026 to be about 39% lower than in 2025, reflecting the improved production environment [3]. But that projection comes with caveats. A single large-scale HPAI outbreak could reverse months of recovery. Consumer buying patterns disrupted by last year's crisis may take longer to normalize. And the structural questions raised by the DOJ investigation remain unanswered.

What is clear is that the egg market has become a case study in the fragility of highly concentrated agricultural supply chains. When a handful of large producers control a significant share of output, both disease shocks and market corrections are amplified. The same biological and economic forces that sent prices to $6.23 have now sent them to $2.50 — and the farmers caught between those extremes are bearing the heaviest cost.

As Anderson, the Texas A&M economist, put it: the flock has been rebuilt. The question is whether the industry's financial foundations can hold long enough to keep it that way.