Revision History

A convergence of the Iran war's oil shock, a $3 trillion corporate debt maturity wall, and emerging stress fractures in the $1.8 trillion private credit market is creating the most dangerous environment for U.S. corporate borrowers since the 2008 financial crisis. With high-yield credit spreads surging, bankruptcy filings up 11%, and default rates climbing toward levels not seen since the pandemic, the question is no longer whether stress will arrive — but how many companies will survive it.