Xavier Becerra's Unlikely Comeback: How a Low-Polling Democrat Won California's Top-Two Primary — and What Stands Between Him and the Governor's Mansion

Xavier Becerra spent most of the 2026 California gubernatorial primary polling in the low single digits. On June 5, the Associated Press projected him as the top vote-getter, placing first with 26.7% of ballots counted — a margin of just 0.3 percentage points over Republican Steve Hilton [1][2]. The result amounts to one of the more striking political comebacks in recent California history, and it sets up a general election that will test whether the state's overwhelming Democratic registration advantage can carry a candidate whom many in his own party view with ambivalence.

The Primary Results: A Razor-Thin, Four-Way Split

Under California's top-two primary system, all candidates regardless of party appear on the same ballot, and the top two finishers advance to the November general election. With approximately two-thirds of ballots counted as of June 5, Becerra led with 26.7%, followed by former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 26.4%, billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at 21%, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 11% [2][3].

Source: NBC News / AP

Data as of Jun 5, 2026CSV

The race for the second spot remains officially uncalled by the AP. Hilton holds a narrow lead over Steyer, but nearly one million ballots remain uncounted in Los Angeles and Orange counties alone [4]. Because late-arriving mail ballots in California tend to skew Democratic, Steyer's campaign has argued the final margin could tighten further [5]. Final results must be reported to the Secretary of State by July 3 [6].

The thin margins expose a feature of California's top-two system that critics have long highlighted. A CalMatters analysis published after the primary found that the system has "failed to moderate" the state's politics as its proponents originally promised, instead producing fragmented results where candidates can advance with barely a quarter of the vote [7].

The Swalwell Exit: How Becerra Found His Lane

Becerra's path to the top of the ticket was not foreordained. For months, former Representative Eric Swalwell led among Democratic contenders. When Swalwell dropped out on April 12 amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations, Becerra was the immediate beneficiary [1][2]. An Emerson College poll conducted after Swalwell's exit showed Becerra surging from single digits to the mid-twenties, consolidating moderate Democratic voters who had been parked with Swalwell [8].

The Washington Post characterized California Democrats as "playing it safe" with Becerra, choosing institutional familiarity over Steyer's more progressive platform [9]. Becerra's resume — 24 years in Congress, four years as California Attorney General, and a stint as President Biden's HHS Secretary — gave him a name-recognition advantage that proved decisive once the field narrowed.

The Money Race: Steyer's Millions vs. Becerra's Late Surge

The 2026 primary was the most expensive gubernatorial primary in California history, driven largely by Steyer's personal spending. The billionaire investor poured $213 million of his own fortune into the race [10]. Becerra, by contrast, raised $500,000 in the first quarter of 2026 — a modest figure that reflected his low standing in polls at the time. After Swalwell's exit, however, Becerra received at least $2.3 million in new donations [10][1].

Campaign finance records show that Becerra's donor base included contributions from Chevron, a point that progressive critics seized upon [10][11]. Steyer, who built his political brand on climate activism, used the Chevron donations to draw a contrast, arguing that Becerra represented the same corporate-friendly Democratic establishment that had failed to address California's housing and climate crises [11].

Becerra's Record: The Case For and Against

HHS Secretary

Becerra served as Secretary of Health and Human Services from 2021 to 2025. His supporters point to concrete achievements: he oversaw negotiations on prices for 10 high-cost prescription drugs under the Inflation Reduction Act, securing discounts of 38% to 79% [12]. His department expanded Medicaid and CHIP postpartum coverage in more than half the states and played a central role in preserving reproductive healthcare access after the Dobbs decision [12].

Critics offer a different accounting. Public health experts described Becerra as "a major disappointment," noting that he was "very silent" during the COVID-19 pandemic's later waves and the 2022 monkeypox outbreak [13]. His first appearance at a White House press briefing came a full year into his tenure [13]. More damaging, HHS under his leadership lost contact with tens of thousands of unaccompanied migrant children placed with sponsors — some of whom were subsequently found to have been trafficked [14]. Opponents in the primary debate hammered this point repeatedly [14].

California Attorney General

As AG from 2017 to 2021, Becerra drew progressive fire for his handling of police accountability. Critics, including the California Nurses Association, cited his refusal to release records related to officers who used deadly force [11][15]. This became a wedge issue in the primary, with Steyer and progressive organizations arguing that Becerra's record was inconsistent with the criminal justice reform agenda that most California Democrats support.

The Progressive Critique: Steyer's Coalition and Its Grievances

The steelman case against Becerra from the left came not from fringe groups but from established progressive organizations. Our Revolution, the political action organization aligned with Senator Bernie Sanders, endorsed Steyer over Becerra [15]. The California Nurses Association and United Domestic Workers spent significant sums boosting Steyer's campaign [15].

Their objections were specific: Becerra's handling of the migrant child crisis at HHS, his AG-era stance on police transparency, and his acceptance of fossil fuel industry campaign contributions [10][11][15]. Tom Steyer's campaign explicitly pitched itself as the progressive alternative, building what NBC News described as an "unexpected alliance with progressives" that vaulted him into the top tier [15].

Whether these groups and their voters will consolidate behind Becerra in the general election — or sit it out — is an open question that could matter in a race where enthusiasm gaps affect turnout more than partisan registration.

Steve Hilton: The Republican Contender

If Hilton holds his second-place position as remaining ballots are counted, the general election will pit Becerra against a candidate with an unusual profile for California Republican politics. Hilton, a former Fox News host and onetime advisor to British Prime Minister David Cameron, received endorsements from both President Trump and Vice President Vance [16]. In a May 2026 PPIC survey, Hilton polled at 20% among likely voters, with Chad Bianco at 13% [17].

The structural question is whether any Republican can win statewide in California. Democrats hold a roughly 22-percentage-point registration advantage over Republicans. The last Republican to win the governorship was Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, under the unusual circumstances of an action-movie star running in a special recall election — and even then, he governed as a centrist who clashed with his own party. No Republican has won a normal California gubernatorial election since Pete Wilson in 1994 [18].

Hilton's campaign has not laid out a clear path to overcoming this deficit. His strategy appears to depend on consolidating Republican and independent voters while hoping for low Democratic turnout — a long-odds proposition in a state where Democrats have expanded their registration lead in every cycle since 2010 [18][19].

The Historic Dimension: California's First Elected Latino Governor

If Becerra wins in November, he would become California's first Latino governor since Romualdo Pacheco, who briefly served in 1875 after being appointed to fill a vacancy [20]. Becerra would be the first Latino elected to the office in the state's history — a milestone in a state where Latinos now constitute more than 30% of eligible voters [21].

California hit a record 23.1 million registered voters ahead of the June 2026 primary, with nearly 85% of eligible residents now registered [22]. Latino voter registration has grown significantly, driven by organizing in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, Orange County, and the Central Valley [21]. However, turnout among Latino voters has historically lagged behind their registration numbers [21].

Pollsters have found mixed evidence on whether ethnic identity is a primary driver of Becerra's support among Latino voters. A CalMatters analysis of Proposition 50 voting patterns found that Latino voters shifted toward Democrats in the May 2026 special election, suggesting a broader partisan trend rather than a candidate-specific ethnic solidarity effect [23]. Becerra's campaign has emphasized his policy record over identity, though his biography as the son of Mexican immigrants is a consistent element of his public narrative [1][2].

California's Defining Crises: Homelessness, Housing, and Public Safety

Any California governor will inherit a state grappling with persistent challenges that have drawn national scrutiny. The most recent point-in-time count found 181,934 homeless Californians — a 2.8% decrease from 2024's count of 187,084, but still 57% higher than the 2015 figure of 115,738 [24][25].

Source: HUD Annual Homeless Assessment Report

Data as of Jan 1, 2025CSV

State homelessness funding has declined sharply from its peak of $6.9 billion in 2022-23 to $1.5 billion in the current 2025-26 budget [26]. This spending reduction coincides with the first meaningful decrease in unsheltered homelessness in more than 15 years — roughly 9% in regions reporting 2025 numbers — complicating the political narrative around whether more spending produces better outcomes [24].

Housing costs remain a central pressure. California's median home value of $725,800 is the second highest among U.S. states, behind only Hawaii's $846,400 [27]. The gap between California and the national average of approximately $347,600 underscores the affordability crisis that drives both homelessness and out-migration.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau / ACS 1-Year

Data as of Dec 31, 2023CSV

Becerra's campaign website lists housing affordability and homelessness among his priorities, but specific measurable targets — units to be built, timelines, funding sources — have been sparse. Critics from both parties have pressed him on this vagueness during debates [28].

Constraints on a Becerra Governorship

Even with a likely win in November, Becerra would not govern with a free hand. California's political structure presents both opportunities and constraints.

On the opportunity side, Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, meaning they can pass budgets and even override vetoes without Republican votes [18]. This gives a Democratic governor significant latitude on legislation.

The constraints are real, however. California's ballot initiative system allows voters to bypass the legislature entirely, and well-funded initiatives have repeatedly checked gubernatorial agendas — from Proposition 13's property tax limits in 1978 to recent criminal justice measures [18]. The governor also faces potential federal conflicts: the Trump administration has clashed with California on immigration enforcement, environmental regulation, and education policy, and a Governor Becerra would likely inherit and intensify those fights [16].

Within the Democratic Party itself, the progressive wing that backed Steyer would pressure Becerra on single-payer healthcare, police reform, and climate policy. Whether Becerra can manage these intra-party tensions while governing a state with a $300 billion-plus annual budget will define his term.

What Comes Next

The immediate question is whether Steve Hilton or Tom Steyer will claim the second spot on the November ballot. With roughly a third of ballots still uncounted, that answer may not come for weeks [6]. If Hilton advances, the general election becomes a straightforward partisan contest in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 4 million registered voters [19]. If Steyer somehow overtakes Hilton, California would face its first Democrat-vs.-Democrat gubernatorial general election — a scenario that would test whether progressives can outflank the party establishment in a head-to-head race.

Either way, Becerra's November campaign will be defined by whether he can translate institutional support and demographic tailwinds into the kind of turnout that matches California's record voter registration numbers. His primary victory was narrow and late-breaking. Governing would require something more durable.