Operation Epic Fury: Trump Demands Role in Choosing Iran's Next Leader as War Enters Second Week and History Warns of Regime Change's Costs

On the morning of February 28, 2026, at approximately 7:00 AM local time, the skies over Iran filled with American and Israeli ordnance. In what would become the largest B-2 operational strike in U.S. history, fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators slammed into Iran's underground nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz [1]. Tomahawk cruise missiles destroyed the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. Precision strikes leveled the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Within hours, a nation of 90 million people was decapitated of its most powerful figure, its nuclear ambitions set back by decades, and the entire Middle East plunged into a conflict whose end remains nowhere in sight.

Nine days later, the war has metastasized far beyond anything its planners publicly anticipated — and a new dimension has emerged. President Trump now says he must be personally "involved" in selecting Iran's next supreme leader [2], a demand that places the United States squarely in the business of installing foreign governments for at least the third time in his second term. Russia is providing Iran with satellite intelligence to target American forces [3][4]. Oil has surged past $90 a barrel [5]. A massive fire has engulfed a government skyscraper in Kuwait City [6]. And the ghost of America's long history of regime change — from Tehran in 1953 to Baghdad in 2003 to Caracas just weeks ago — hangs over every decision still to come.

The Opening Salvo and the Killing of Khamenei

The coordinated operation carried two codenames — Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) — and four stated objectives: preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, destroying its missile arsenal, degrading its proxy networks, and annihilating its navy. A fifth, political objective was stated openly: regime change from within [1].

The most dramatic achievement was the assassination of 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Using CIA intelligence, Israeli airstrikes targeted Khamenei at his residence compound in Tehran; Iran confirmed his death on March 1 [7]. On March 7, roughly 50 Israeli fighter jets dropped approximately 100 bombs on Khamenei's underground bunker, which the IDF said senior regime officials had been using as a command center [8].

The reaction inside Iran was starkly divided. President Masoud Pezeshkian called the killing a "great crime." Yet videos from Isfahan, Shiraz, and Kermanshah showed civilians celebrating in the streets [7]. By March 8, prominent clerics were urging the Assembly of Experts to swiftly elect a new supreme leader — though an Israeli strike reportedly hit the Assembly's office in Qom during an electoral session on March 3 [9].

Nine Days of Devastation: The Campaign by the Numbers

By Day 9, U.S. Central Command reported more than 3,000 targets struck inside Iran [10]. Israel stated it had conducted approximately 2,500 strikes using over 6,000 munitions, claiming to have destroyed 80 percent of Iran's air defense systems [8][11]. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed that Iranian ballistic missile attacks had decreased by 90 percent and drone attacks by 83 percent since the war began [11].

Iran's Foreign Ministry has claimed that strikes have hit 33 civilian locations, including hospitals, schools, the Tehran Grand Bazaar, and the historic Golestan Palace — a UNESCO World Heritage Site [12]. Preliminary casualty figures as of March 8 stood at more than 1,230 dead in Iran, at least 123 killed in Lebanon, 11 in Israel, and multiple fatalities across Gulf states, in addition to six American soldiers killed [10][13].

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 2, 2026CSV

"I Have to Be Involved": Trump and the Succession Crisis

The most provocative political development of the war's second week was Trump's declaration — in an exclusive interview with Axios — that he expects to personally shape the selection of Iran's next leader. "I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy [Rodriguez] in Venezuela," Trump said, referring to his role in installing acting-President Delcy Rodríguez after the January capture of Nicolás Maduro [2][14].

Trump went further, singling out the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei. Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the assassinated supreme leader, has emerged as the frontrunner in a process overseen by Iran's Assembly of Experts. But Trump called Mojtaba "unacceptable," saying: "Khamenei's son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran" [14]. He added that accepting a new leader who would continue his father's policies would force the U.S. back to war "in five years."

Inside Iran, the IRGC has been pressuring Assembly members to vote for Mojtaba Khamenei. According to Iran International, starting on March 3, IRGC commanders made "repeated contacts and psychological and political pressure" on Assembly members [15]. The process has been complicated by the Israeli strike on the Assembly's meeting in Qom and the broader destruction of Iran's command structure. If confirmed, the selection of Mojtaba would mark the first hereditary transfer of power since the 1979 revolution — and one that Washington has preemptively declared illegitimate.

A Pattern Repeating: The History of U.S.-Installed Leaders

Trump's insistence on a role in choosing Iran's next government is not without American precedent — but the historical record is deeply cautionary [16].

Iran, 1953. The CIA orchestrated Operation Ajax to overthrow Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh after he nationalized the country's oil industry. Declassified CIA documents describe a "Campaign to install a pro-western government in Iran." The Shah was restored to power, ruling as an authoritarian monarch for 25 years — until the Islamic Revolution of 1979 produced the very theocracy the United States is now bombing [16][17].

Guatemala, 1954. One year later, the U.S. backed the overthrow of President Jacobo Árbenz. What followed was not democratic consolidation but decades of civil war that killed more than 200,000 people [17].

Chile, 1973. U.S.-supported efforts destabilized Chile's elected president, Salvador Allende. General Augusto Pinochet's subsequent 17-year dictatorship killed or disappeared thousands of dissidents [17].

Iraq, 2003. The U.S. invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, but the weapons of mass destruction that justified the war were never found. Disbanding the Iraqi military fueled an insurgency, sectarian civil war, and the rise of ISIS. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died. Trillions of dollars were spent. Two decades later, Iraq remains unstable [17].

Venezuela, January 2026. In Trump's most recent and most direct intervention, U.S. forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in a predawn military operation, transporting him to New York to face trial. The Trump administration has since installed acting-President Delcy Rodríguez and seized de facto control of Venezuela's oil-rich petroleum company [18][19].

The through-line is consistent: removing a foreign leader is the easy part. What follows — the vacuum, the insurgency, the unintended consequences — is where American regime change has historically failed. As scholars at Harvard's Belfer Center have concluded, "foreign-imposed regime change is rarely a path to democracy" [17].

Source: GDELT Project — Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone

Data as of Mar 8, 2026CSV

Russia Enters the War — From the Shadows

The most consequential military development of the war's second week was the revelation that Russia is providing Iran with intelligence to target American forces — the first indication that a nuclear-armed U.S. adversary is actively participating in the conflict, even indirectly [3][4].

According to the Washington Post, NBC News, and CNN, Russia has been passing Iran the locations of U.S. military assets, including warships and aircraft, since strikes began on February 28. Much of the intelligence comes from Moscow's satellite constellation, which provides targeting data faster and with more precision than Iran's own capabilities [3][4].

The White House sought to downplay the significance. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the intelligence "clearly is not making a difference" given Iran's degrading military capacity [20]. But Senator Chris Murphy called it "an extraordinary escalation" that could "draw us into a broader confrontation with Russia at the worst possible time" [4].

Kuwait Burns: The War Arrives in the Gulf's Living Rooms

On March 8, an Iranian drone struck a government skyscraper in Kuwait City, sending massive flames tearing through the building and spilling into the surrounding Kooshar Boulevard [6]. Separately, drone attacks ignited fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, while the main building of the Public Institution for Social Security also caught fire [6][21].

The strikes on Kuwait encapsulate the war's most troubling dynamic: nations that played no role in the decision to attack Iran are absorbing devastating consequences. An 11-year-old girl, Elena Abdullah Hussein, was killed when Iranian drone debris slammed into her room while she slept [22]. Two Kuwaiti border guards were killed performing their duties [23]. Six U.S. service members died on March 1 when a drone struck Port Shuaiba [24].

Across the Gulf, the toll continues to mount. The UAE reports at least three dead and 58 injured [25]. Saudi Arabia intercepted 16 drones and missiles aimed at oil fields [8]. A missile struck the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad, landing on its helicopter pad [26].

The Strait of Hormuz and Global Economic Fallout

The IRGC formally announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, threatening any ship that passed through [25]. At least five tankers have been damaged and two crew killed [27]. Tanker traffic dropped to effectively zero, with over 150 ships anchored outside the strait.

WTI crude surged from $66.96 on February 27 to $90.90 by March 7 — a 36 percent spike in barely a week [5]. Analysts warn prices could breach $100. Airspace closures have led to over 4,000 daily flight cancellations [28]. By March 6, the United Nations declared the conflict a "major humanitarian emergency" affecting regions hosting nearly 25 million people [29].

Source: Wikipedia / Harvard Belfer Center / Foreign Policy

Data as of Mar 8, 2026CSV

Trump vs. Starmer: An Alliance Fractures

The conflict has opened a bitter rift between the United States and Britain. When the UK considered deploying aircraft carriers, Trump publicly humiliated Prime Minister Keir Starmer: "That's OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don't need them any longer — But we will remember" [30].

Starmer initially declined to join the strikes and reportedly denied U.S. access to British bases, then reversed course to allow "limited defensive" use of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia [31]. Fifty-six percent of British respondents approved of Starmer's initial refusal [32]. His explicit rejection of "regime change from the skies" stands in sharp contrast to Trump's stated ambitions [30][33].

What Comes Next

Nine days in, the war has achieved several military objectives: Iran's nuclear infrastructure is devastated, more than 3,000 targets have been struck, the supreme leader is dead, and Iran's navy is combat ineffective [10][11]. But the costs are accelerating — in American lives, in Gulf civilian casualties, in an oil shock not seen in decades, and in a widening theater that now stretches from the Indian Ocean to NATO territory.

Five developments now threaten to transform the conflict entirely. Russia's provision of targeting intelligence has introduced a great-power dimension that risks escalation beyond the Middle East [3][4]. Trump's demand for "unconditional surrender" has foreclosed diplomatic off-ramps [34]. His insistence on choosing Iran's next leader echoes a pattern of American intervention stretching back seven decades — one whose historical returns, from the Shah's Iran to post-Saddam Iraq, have been measured in blowback, instability, and generational resentment [16][17]. The IRGC's push to install Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader sets up a direct collision between Tehran's theocratic succession and Washington's demand for a veto [14][15]. And the war's spread to civilian infrastructure across the Gulf is pulling non-belligerent states toward a breaking point [6][26].

The question confronting American policymakers is one that history has answered before, but that each generation seems compelled to ask again: Can an outside power bomb its way to a better government in a country of 90 million people? The record — from Mosaddegh to Saddam to Maduro — suggests that toppling a leader is the beginning of the problem, not its resolution.