Inside the UDA-ODM Power Pact: A Grand Coalition Takes Shape as Cracks Widen Within

One year after signing their 10-point cooperation framework, Kenya's two largest parties convene to take stock — but the report card exposes as many fault lines as achievements.

On March 10, 2026, President William Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Chairman Oburu Oginga Odinga presided over a joint parliamentary group meeting of the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition and ODM at State House, Nairobi [1][2]. The gathering — attended by more than 200 legislators from both sides — was convened to receive a long-awaited implementation report on the 10-point agenda and the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) recommendations that have anchored the broad-based government since March 2025 [3]. The event was billed as a progress check. It may instead have drawn the battle lines for 2027.

From Street Protests to State House: How the Broad-Based Government Was Born

To understand what was at stake inside the joint parliamentary meeting, it is necessary to rewind to June 2024. Kenya was shaken by a wave of youth-led protests — widely dubbed the "Gen Z uprising" — sparked by a controversial Finance Bill that proposed punitive taxes on essential goods including bread, sanitary products, and digital services [4]. On June 25, 2024, protesters breached the walls of Parliament in a dramatic act of defiance against lawmakers who had just voted to pass the bill despite overwhelming public opposition. More than 60 demonstrators were killed by security forces in the ensuing crackdown [4][5].

Facing a crisis of legitimacy, President Ruto made a strategic pivot. In August 2024, he brought his longtime rival, former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga, into a broad-based government arrangement, appointing five ODM members to the Cabinet [5][6]. The political marriage between the two former adversaries stunned many Kenyans, particularly young voters who had chanted "Baba Kaa Nyumbani" — "Father, stay at home" — at Odinga during the protests, urging him not to cut deals with the government they were opposing [4].

The arrangement was formalized on March 7, 2025, when Ruto and Odinga signed a Memorandum of Understanding at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC). The MoU contained a 10-point agenda covering governance reforms, economic inclusion, electoral credibility, police accountability, and institutional reform [7][8]. Both leaders insisted the agreement was "not tantamount to the formation of a political union" between their parties — a distinction that has since become the subject of fierce debate.

The Zani Report: 61% Implementation, Significant Gaps Remain

Central to Tuesday's meeting was the presentation of the COIN-10 committee report, led by former nominated senator Dr. Agnes Zani. The five-member committee — which also included Fatuma Ibrahim, Kevin Kiarie, Gabriel Oguda, and Javas Bigambo — was constituted in August 2025 and mandated to submit bi-monthly reports, with a final comprehensive assessment due on the first anniversary of the agreement [9][10].

The findings were mixed. According to The Star, the Zani committee awarded the government a 61% implementation score on the combined NADCO and 10-point agenda commitments [9]. However, other outlets, including Kenya Insights, reported that a senior member of the implementation team gave the deal an 85% score, citing substantial progress in areas such as the reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and compensation for victims of protest-related violence [11].

The discrepancy in scores itself became a point of contention. Critics argued that the higher figure was being used to paper over significant shortfalls, while supporters of the broad-based government pointed to concrete policy achievements.

Key areas where the report found progress included:

• Electoral reforms: Steps toward reconstituting the IEBC, which had been without a quorum since 2022
• Infrastructure development: Joint infrastructure projects in regions traditionally underserved
• Compensation for protest victims: Payments initiated for families affected by the June 2024 crackdown
• Legislative reforms: Passage of several bills aligned with NADCO recommendations

However, the report also flagged critical shortcomings, including the failure to fully enforce the two-thirds gender rule in Parliament, concerns about police independence from the executive, and unresolved issues surrounding the constitutionality of the National Government Constituency Development Fund (NG-CDF) Act [3][10].

The Economic Backdrop: Reform Promises Meet Fiscal Reality

The political cooperation between UDA and ODM has unfolded against a backdrop of economic volatility. Kenya's real GDP growth slowed from 5.7% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024, according to World Bank data, while inflation eased significantly from a peak of 7.7% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024 [12][13]. Projections from the IMF and World Bank suggest growth will recover to between 4.9% and 5.3% in 2025-2026 [12].

Source: World Bank Open Data

Data as of Feb 24, 2026CSV

Yet the macroeconomic figures mask deeper structural challenges. Formal employment accounts for only about 15% of total jobs, and employment growth slipped from 4.4% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024 [12]. The cost of living — the very issue that ignited the Gen Z protests — remains a source of widespread grievance. Critics within ODM argue that the broad-based government has done little to translate economic cooperation into tangible relief for ordinary Kenyans.

"The 10-point agenda promised bread and delivered speeches," one ODM legislator opposed to the deal told the Daily Nation on condition of anonymity [14].

Source: World Bank Open Data

Data as of Feb 24, 2026CSV

The ODM Civil War: Oburu vs. Sifuna

Perhaps the most consequential outcome of the March 10 meeting was not what happened inside State House, but the deepening rift it exposed within ODM.

On one side stands the party's official leadership under Chairman Oburu Oginga Odinga — Raila Odinga's elder brother — who has been mandated by the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) and Central Management Committee (CMC) to lead coalition negotiations with UDA [15][16]. Oburu has championed the broad-based arrangement as a "relationship of equals" and has moved to negotiate a formal pre-election coalition agreement for 2027, including discussions around electoral "zoning" — the division of regions where each party would field candidates without opposition from the other [16].

Under the proposed zoning arrangement, the Nyanza region would be treated as an ODM stronghold off-limits to UDA candidates, while UDA would retain dominance in its traditional bases in the Rift Valley and parts of Central Kenya [17].

On the other side stands a powerful dissident faction led by ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo, co-deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. This group — operating under the banner of "Linda Mwananchi" (Protect the Citizen) — has declared the March 7 agreement expired and accused UDA of attempting to "infiltrate and take over" ODM under the guise of coalition building [18][19][20].

Sifuna and his allies have argued that Raila Odinga — who is currently serving as Chairperson of the African Union Commission and is largely absent from day-to-day Kenyan politics — never authorized the transformation of the broad-based arrangement into a 2027 electoral pact. They describe the March 7 anniversary as "a day of political betrayal" [14][18].

The Linda Mwananchi movement has rapidly gained traction, holding rallies across the country before Sifuna temporarily suspended activities during Ramadan [21]. The movement has drawn comparisons to a nascent third force in Kenyan politics, though Sifuna and Babu Owino have publicly rejected attempts to register "Linda Mwananchi" as a formal political party — insisting they remain within ODM [22][23].

The factional war escalated sharply when Sifuna boycotted the March 10 joint PG meeting, a pointed act of defiance against the party leadership [24].

Ruto Fires Back: "Self-Appointed Supervisors"

President Ruto has not been a passive observer of ODM's internal turmoil. In remarks at the PG meeting, he rebuked what he described as "self-appointed supervisors" of the UDA-ODM cooperation pact — a thinly veiled attack on Sifuna and his allies [25].

"The commitment we made was not to individuals claiming oversight of this agreement," Ruto told the assembled legislators. "It was a commitment made directly to the people of Kenya" [25].

Ruto emphasized that the alliance was built on "mutual respect and a relationship of equals," pushing back against claims that ODM had been co-opted. He insisted the government had made substantial progress on the cooperation agenda and would soon present a comprehensive public report [1][7].

The president's framing of the deal as a national rather than partisan commitment is strategically significant. By anchoring the pact in public interest rather than party politics, Ruto aims to delegitimize internal ODM critics who question whether the deal serves the party's base.

The 2027 Calculus: Grand Coalition or Grand Collapse?

Behind the procedural language of implementation reports and agenda reviews lies a stark political calculation. Both UDA and ODM see the 2027 general election as the ultimate test of their cooperation.

For Ruto, ODM's support is essential to expanding his electoral base beyond the Rift Valley and Central Kenya into the Western, Nyanza, Coast, and Kisii regions — areas that have traditionally voted for Odinga [26]. The president's 2022 victory was secured without significant support from these regions, and incorporating ODM could provide a decisive margin.

For Oburu Oginga and the pro-deal faction within ODM, the coalition offers a seat at the table of governance and the chance to deliver resources to their constituencies. ODM has reportedly demanded a 50-50 share of government positions in any 2027 coalition deal — a demand UDA has not publicly accepted [27].

But the zoning arrangement has triggered alarm within ODM itself. Legislators from regions where ODM might be expected to cede ground to UDA candidates have pushed back fiercely, leading to heated debates within the party's parliamentary caucus [28]. The prospect of ceding any traditional ODM territory to UDA has become a rallying point for the Sifuna faction.

Meanwhile, analysts note that Raila Odinga's absence from Kenya — he is based in Addis Ababa as AU Commission Chair — has created a leadership vacuum that both factions claim to fill. Oburu, as the elder Odinga and party chairman, asserts institutional authority. Sifuna, as secretary general, invokes the party constitution and grassroots legitimacy [15][18].

"If sealed and sustained, the pact between Ruto's UDA and Oburu Oginga-led ODM could redraw political fault lines across key regions," the Daily Nation observed. "But ODM has entered its most consequential transition in two decades, and how it manages this moment will determine whether it remains a dominant national force — or becomes a bargaining chip" [26].

What the Report Card Means for Ordinary Kenyans

Beyond the political maneuvering, the 10-point agenda was supposed to address the grievances that brought Kenya to the brink in 2024. Police accountability, the cost of living, electoral integrity, and governance reform were not abstract policy goals — they were the demands of a generation that marched on Parliament and paid with their lives.

The Zani committee's report, by its own accounting, suggests that more than a third of those commitments remain unfulfilled one year later. The gender representation target remains unmet. Police reform has stalled. The NG-CDF's constitutionality remains unresolved [10].

For the Gen Z generation that catalyzed this political realignment, the broad-based government was never a satisfying answer. It was a deal struck between the very political elites they had sought to challenge. Whether the 10-point agenda ultimately delivers meaningful reform — or serves primarily as the scaffolding for a 2027 electoral pact — may determine whether Kenya's next election cycle is contested at the ballot box or, once again, in the streets.

Looking Ahead

The March 10 meeting resolved to form a joint parliamentary committee to fast-track implementation of the outstanding agenda items, with a particular focus on electoral reforms ahead of the 2027 cycle [1][2]. The parties also agreed to constitute a formal coalition talks team, with a target of finalizing a pre-election agreement by mid-2026 [16].

But the real question is whether ODM can hold together long enough to deliver on either commitment. The Linda Mwananchi movement shows no signs of retreating, and the prospect of a formal party split — though officially denied — grows more plausible with each passing week. If Sifuna's faction breaks away or forms alliances with other opposition figures, the carefully constructed UDA-ODM edifice could unravel, leaving Ruto scrambling for an alternative path to re-election and Kenya facing another period of political uncertainty.

The broad-based government was born from crisis. Whether it survives long enough to prevent the next one remains an open question.