The Great Unaffiliation: 45% of Americans Now Reject Both Parties as Independents Mount a Structural Challenge to the Two-Party System

Something unprecedented is happening in American politics: the people who refuse to pick a side now outnumber everyone who does.

According to Gallup's annual party identification survey released in January, a record 45% of U.S. adults now call themselves political independents — eclipsing the combined 27% who identify as Democrats and 27% who identify as Republicans [1]. It is the highest level of independent identification since Gallup began tracking in 1988, and it represents a dramatic acceleration from the roughly one-third who called themselves independents just two decades ago.

The number is more than a polling curiosity. It is the backdrop against which a constellation of reform campaigns, lawsuits, and ballot initiatives are converging ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections — a contest that could determine whether America's growing independent plurality translates into actual political power.

Source: Gallup Party Affiliation Polling

Data as of Jan 12, 2026CSV

A Structural Shift, Not a Blip

The 45% figure is not an outlier. NBC News data analysis shows that 32% of registered voters across states that report party affiliation are now unaffiliated with either major party, up from 23% in 2000 — a nearly nine-percentage-point increase over two decades [2]. The share of registered Democrats has declined every year since 2000, with a 1.2 percentage point drop from 2024 to 2025 alone — one of the steepest single-year declines on record.

The shift is visible at the state level. In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters have surged to nearly 2.9 million — 38.84% of the state's 7.6 million registered voters — now outnumbering both Democrats (30.25%) and Republicans (30.24%) [3]. In West Virginia, a state Trump won by 41 points in 2024, the unaffiliated share has more than tripled since 2000 [2]. In Maine, independents similarly outnumber both major parties.

The trend is not simply disaffected partisans wearing a different label. NBC's analysis found that the independent electorate is becoming more demographically diverse: 56% describe themselves as moderate (up from 50% in 2012), and 34% are people of color — double the share from a decade ago [2].

Source: Gallup / ABC News

Data as of Jan 12, 2026CSV

The Generational Engine

The engine of unaffiliation is generational. Gallup found that 56% of Gen Z adults identify as independent, along with 54% of Millennials and 43% of Gen X. Only about a third of Baby Boomers and fewer than three in ten Silent Generation members say the same [1].

What's notable is that younger generations are not affiliating as they age the way previous cohorts did. Millennials, who were 47% independent in 2012, remain at 54% independent in 2025. Gen X, which was 40% independent in 1992, has actually grown more independent over time, not less [1]. This breaks a long-held assumption in political science that voters naturally sort into parties as they accumulate life experience and financial stakes.

"The system must evolve to reflect the reality of modern voters," wrote the Independent Center in a January analysis, noting that approximately 10,000 Americans leave the two major parties every week [4].

The "Declaration of Independents"

The most coordinated expression of this movement came on February 27, when the reform group Open Primaries released what it called a "Declaration of Independents" — a document explicitly framed as the unfinished business of 1776 [5].

"Taxation without representation is no relic — it burns as fiercely now as at the founding," the Declaration states, arguing that tens of millions of independent voters are shut out of the taxpayer-funded primary elections that effectively decide most general election outcomes [5].

The Declaration outlines four structural demands: opening all publicly funded elections to every voter regardless of party affiliation; ending discriminatory ballot-access laws; ensuring equal treatment for independents in debates, polling, and media coverage; and recognizing political independence as a constitutional right.

Open Primaries has described the document as the "opening salvo" in a national campaign. The organization plans to deliver the signed Declaration to the chairs of both the Republican and Democratic parties on July 4, 2026 — a symbolic gesture timed to coincide with America's 250th birthday [5].

The Primary Battleground

The closed primary system is the structural chokepoint that reformers have zeroed in on. According to the Unite America Institute, 27 million voters across 22 states with closed primaries are effectively locked out of the elections that matter most [6]. In many districts — especially safely red or blue ones — the primary is the only competitive election. Independents who refuse to register with a party simply have no vote in those races.

The reform fight is playing out on multiple fronts simultaneously:

Pennsylvania is ground zero. Ballot PA Action, a group backed by good-government advocate David Thornburgh and broadcaster Michael Smerconish, filed a lawsuit in Commonwealth Court in December 2025 arguing that the state's closed primaries violate the Pennsylvania Constitution by giving registered party members more voting power than 1.4 million independent and third-party voters [7]. Pennsylvania is one of just eight states with a fully closed primary system. The state House passed a bipartisan bill to open primaries to unaffiliated voters in October 2024, but it never received a final vote in the Senate. The lawsuit aims to achieve through the courts what the legislature has failed to deliver.

Oklahoma saw a major grassroots push fail to clear the ballot. Supporters of State Question 836, which would have established a top-two primary system for state and congressional races, submitted more than 200,000 signatures in January [8]. But the Secretary of State determined that too few were valid, and the measure will not appear on the November ballot. Oklahoma law currently allows parties to decide whether independents can vote in their primaries — and for the 2026 cycle, no party has authorized it [8].

Kentucky has bipartisan bills advancing in the legislature that would let parties opt to open their primaries, though observers describe them as long shots [9].

Nebraska and New Mexico have already changed their systems. In the past year, both states moved to allow all registered voters to participate in primary elections — joining a growing list of states that includes Alaska, which adopted a top-four primary system in 2022 [6].

Washington, D.C. voted to open its primaries to independents, giving over 75,000 unaffiliated voters a voice for the first time [6].

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 16, 2026CSV

The Iran War as Accelerant

The surge in independent identification predates the current crisis in Iran, but the war has amplified the anti-establishment sentiment fueling the movement. As Crowdbyte has extensively reported, Operation Epic Fury — launched without congressional authorization on February 28, 2026 — has killed over 1,400 Iranians and at least eight American service members, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, and sent oil prices past $100 a barrel. Congress narrowly rejected war powers resolutions along party lines, with members of both parties voting to preserve executive authority over the conflict.

For many independent-leaning voters, the bipartisan failure to exercise war powers oversight is precisely the kind of institutional dysfunction that justifies their rejection of both parties. Gas prices have surged 19% in a single month, mortgage rates have hit 2026 highs, and the GOP's promise of affordable energy — once its signature campaign pillar — is collapsing at the worst possible moment. Meanwhile, Democratic attempts to force Iran hearings through procedural war votes have so far failed to produce results.

"Independents are tired of partisan gridlock and empty promises," the Independent Center wrote in its midterms analysis. "They want leaders who address real concerns — groceries, housing, healthcare costs — not party talking points" [4].

Can Independents Actually Win?

The central question is whether 45% identification translates into structural power. History is not encouraging: the two-party system has survived periodic surges of independent sentiment before. But several factors make 2026 different.

First, the sheer scale. Independent identification has never been this high, and the generational trajectory suggests it will keep climbing.

Second, the infrastructure. Organizations like Open Primaries, Unite America, the Independent Center, and Independent Voter News (IVN) now form a connected ecosystem of advocacy, litigation, and voter education that did not exist during previous independent surges [5][6].

Third, specific candidates are running. At least one House Republican in California has announced plans to run as an independent in 2026, and Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, is running as an independent for the Senate [10]. Two independents — Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King — already caucus with Democrats in the current Senate.

Reformers argue that independents need only three to five congressional seats to become a genuine swing bloc capable of forcing concessions from whichever party controls the chamber [4]. In a House with razor-thin margins, even a small independent caucus could wield outsized influence.

The Skeptics' Case

Not everyone sees a revolution in the making. Political scientists have long noted that most self-identified independents are "leaners" who vote as reliably partisan as registered party members. Gallup's own data shows that among the 45% of independents, 20% lean Democratic, 15% lean Republican, and only 10% are true non-leaners [1]. North Carolina researchers found that roughly half of the state's unaffiliated voters are reliable single-party voters, not genuine swing voters [3].

There is also the structural problem of fundraising and ballot access. Independent candidates face vastly higher signature requirements to get on the ballot in many states, and they lack access to the party fundraising apparatus that finances modern campaigns. Oklahoma's failed signature drive for SQ 836 — where 200,000 submitted signatures were not enough — illustrates the high bar [8].

And some observers argue that the growth of independents is actually making politics more partisan, not less. As moderates leave both parties, the remaining partisans have more influence over nominations, producing candidates who are further from the center — which in turn pushes more moderates out the door [11].

What Comes Next

The 2026 midterms will serve as a stress test for the independent movement. The Pennsylvania lawsuit, if successful, could open primaries in a major swing state and create a template for litigation elsewhere. The July 4 delivery of the Declaration of Independents will test whether the symbolic framing of political independence as a founding-era principle resonates beyond the reform community.

But the most consequential metric may be the simplest one: turnout. Independents historically vote at lower rates in midterm elections than partisans. If the convergence of war, inflation, and institutional dysfunction motivates even a fraction of the 45% to show up — and to vote for candidates outside the two-party binary — the results could reshape the political landscape for a generation.

Sixty percent of Americans already say a third major party is needed [4]. The question is no longer whether the appetite exists. It is whether a system built by and for two parties will allow it to be satisfied.