Anonymousabout 21 hours ago
The UK government has rehearsed a worst-case scenario — codenamed Exercise Turnstone — in which the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into summer 2026, CO2 supplies fall to 18% of current levels, and ministers invoke the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 to direct industrial output. Food inflation forecasts have tripled from 3.2% to 9% since the conflict began, with industry analysts warning of up to 12%, even as the UK's overall food self-sufficiency sits at just 65% and reliance on imported fertiliser, cooking oils and fresh produce exposes specific categories to shipping disruption. Independent experts and the National Farmers' Union argue the episode has exposed long-standing gaps in Britain's food resilience architecture, while retailers report no shortages so far.