The Gulf in Flames: Five Weeks of War, Shattered Refineries, and the Highest Oil Shock in Modern History

On April 3, 2026 — five weeks after the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — Iranian missiles and drones struck energy facilities across the Persian Gulf for at least the fourth major wave of attacks on Arab oil and gas infrastructure [1][2]. President Donald Trump responded with a threat that Washington had "not even started" its campaign against Iran and warned that "bridges next, then Electric Power Plants!" would be targeted [3][4].

The escalation marks a new phase in a war that has already disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, sent Brent crude above $120 per barrel, and prompted the International Energy Agency to authorize the largest coordinated strategic reserve release in its 52-year history [5][6].

What Was Hit on April 3

Iran's latest strikes targeted infrastructure across multiple Gulf states. In Kuwait, a drone attack caused a fire at the Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery, which has a processing capacity of 346,000 barrels per day [1][7]. A separate attack hit a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, damaging components [7]. In the UAE, operations were suspended at Abu Dhabi's Habshan gas processing facility — one of the country's largest — after a fire broke out from debris of an intercepted projectile; this was the second time Habshan had been forced offline since the war began [1]. Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted several drones in the early morning hours [1].

These April 3 strikes follow weeks of escalating attacks on Gulf energy sites. Iran hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City — the world's largest LNG production complex — on March 19, destroying LNG trains S4 and S6 and eliminating 17% of the country's liquefied natural gas export capacity, or roughly 12.8 million tonnes per annum [8][9]. Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and Yanbu refinery were struck on March 19 [9]. The UAE's Shah gas field, Fujairah oil storage facilities, and Abu Dhabi's 1.5-million-barrel-per-day crude pipeline have all sustained damage [9]. Bahrain's BAPCO Sitra refinery declared force majeure after two crude distillation units and a tank farm were hit [10].

Rystad Energy estimates the combined repair and restoration bill for Gulf energy infrastructure at a minimum of $25 billion, with the figure expected to rise [10]. Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities alone could take three to five years to restore because large-frame gas turbines are produced by only three global manufacturers with two-to-four-year production backlogs [10].

How the War Started: The 72-Hour Sequence

The war began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on military and government sites across Iran, killing Khamenei and several senior officials [11][12]. The strikes targeted Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, with Washington citing the right to self-defense under the UN Charter [13].

Iran's government condemned the attacks as a breach of the UN Charter and invoked its own right to self-defense [13]. Within hours, Tehran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israeli cities and US military bases across the Gulf region, including in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia [11][14]. On March 4, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closing the waterway [5].

The sequencing matters for legal claims. The US and Israel struck first, though senior Trump administration advisors had reportedly suggested it would be better for Israel to strike Iran initially so the US would have stronger justification for entering the conflict after an Iranian retaliation [13]. Iran's ambassador to the UN accused Trump of "manufacturing consent for unlawful war" [13]. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was targeting US military facilities in the region, not "Americans in their land" [13].

Independent analysts note that the question of proportionality is complicated by a longer history. Before the February 28 strikes, the US had imposed severe sanctions, conducted cyberattacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure (including the Stuxnet operation attributed to the US and Israel), and Israel had carried out targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders [15]. Tehran has publicly cited these actions as cumulative justification. Whether Iran's response — striking Gulf states that host US bases but are not parties to the US-Israeli campaign — meets the international law standard of proportionality remains sharply debated among legal scholars [14].

The Oil Shock: Prices in Historical Context

The market reaction has been unprecedented in speed. WTI crude oil, which traded near $65 per barrel in late February, reached $104.69 by the end of March — a 45.7% year-over-year increase [16]. Brent crude, the international benchmark, spiked even more dramatically: the Dubai physical delivery price climbed 76% from February 27 to March 27, reaching $126 per barrel at its peak [17].

Source: FRED / EIA

Data as of Mar 30, 2026CSV

On April 3 alone, following the latest round of strikes, Brent crude jumped 7.8% to $109.03 per barrel [3]. The Dubai price reference, which tracks physical delivery, has traded at a persistent premium to paper futures — a signal of acute physical tightness in supply [17].

Source: Reuters, EIA, IEA historical data

Data as of Apr 3, 2026CSV

Compared to prior energy crises, the 2026 Iran war has produced the sharpest 30-day price increase on record. The 1973 Arab oil embargo drove a 56% price increase in its first month. The 1990 Gulf War saw a 40% rise. The 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi Aramco facilities — which temporarily knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi production — caused a 15% spike that receded within two weeks as capacity was restored [17][18]. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war produced a 26% increase in its opening month. The 2026 crisis surpassed all of these with a 76% increase in the Dubai benchmark within 30 days [17].

The IEA has called this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" [6]. Wall Street analysts and US government officials have warned that prices could reach $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed [5].

The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint in Crisis

Approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz before the war — roughly one-fifth of global consumption [5][6]. Daily vessel traffic has collapsed from about 150 ships per day before the conflict to approximately 10-20 ships as of early April [3].

Source: Lloyd's List, shipping data

Data as of Apr 3, 2026CSV

On March 26, Iran announced that ships owned by five nations — China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan — would be permitted to transit the strait, a move that created a two-tier access system favoring countries that have not joined the US-led military campaign [19]. Some Chinese-flagged vessels have transited successfully, though many remain stranded outside the strait [20].

The IEA convened an extraordinary meeting of its 32 member governments on March 11 and authorized the release of 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles — the largest coordinated release in the agency's history [6][21]. IEA member nations are mandated to hold at least 90 days' worth of imports in reserve [22]. But the 400 million barrels represent only about 20 days of the Strait of Hormuz's normal throughput. Middle East analyst Neil Quilliam has estimated that "by some calculations, such relief could evaporate as soon as three weeks" [22].

Countries with smaller strategic reserves and higher Gulf import dependency face the greatest exposure. Japan and South Korea, both major IEA members, rely heavily on Gulf crude. Asian IEA members began releasing stocks immediately, while American and European releases were scheduled to begin at the end of March [21].

The Constitutional Debate Over US Military Authority

The Trump administration has invoked Article II of the Constitution — the president's authority as Commander in Chief — as the sole legal basis for Operation Epic Fury, the name given to the military campaign against Iran [23][24]. The March 2 war powers notification to Congress made explicit that the administration is not relying on any existing Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), including the 2001 AUMF that authorized action against al-Qaeda [24].

Constitutional law scholars have raised objections. Oona Hathaway of Yale Law School stated that "the strikes on Iran are blatantly illegal" and that "the Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to declare war" [24]. Kermit Roosevelt of the University of Pennsylvania acknowledged that while the Constitution clearly assigns war-declaration power to Congress, "presidents have done things that count as acts of war under international law without congressional authorization" as a practical matter [24].

In Congress, Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Tim Kaine (D-VA), and Chris Murphy (D-CT) labeled the operation an "illegal war" [24]. On March 4, the Senate voted 47-53 to reject a war powers resolution that would have required Trump to obtain congressional authorization. A similar resolution failed in the House the following day [24]. Representatives Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) have backed subsequent resolutions requiring approval, though previous attempts in June 2025 and January 2026 also failed [24].

Supporters of broad executive authority, including the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), have argued that Congress should pass an AUMF retroactively to formalize authorization rather than challenging the president's inherent power during an active conflict [25].

China and India: The Largest Buyers of Iranian Oil Under Pressure

China, which purchases approximately 90% of Iranian oil exports, received 5.35 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz before the war [20]. That figure has dropped to roughly 1.22 million barrels per day — an immediate shortfall of over 4 million barrels daily [20]. Beijing faces pressure from Trump to deploy warships to help reopen the strait, but China is unlikely to support military operations against a key partner [20]. Multiple American officials have reported difficulty reaching Chinese counterparts, and a planned Trump-Xi summit has been postponed [20].

Iran's offer to allow Chinese-flagged tankers to transit the strait — with cargo invoiced in yuan — has proven impractical during wartime given insurance and safety uncertainties [20].

India halted purchases of Iranian crude in 2019 after the US ended sanctions waivers and has not resumed them [26]. However, India depends heavily on Gulf oil from other producers, and the Hormuz closure has severely disrupted those flows. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil as an alternative supply source [26]. New Delhi has called for dialogue and de-escalation but has avoided direct condemnation of either side, maintaining what analysts describe as a "pragmatic balancing act" [26].

Neither Beijing nor New Delhi has applied public diplomatic pressure on Tehran to reopen the strait or on Washington to halt military operations, though both are engaged in behind-the-scenes communications with multiple parties [20][26].

The Damage to Gulf States

The four Gulf states that have suffered the most significant infrastructure damage — Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — derive between 30% and 80% of government revenue from hydrocarbons [9][27].

Qatar has been the hardest hit in terms of energy infrastructure. The destruction of LNG trains at Ras Laffan represents a loss that Rystad Energy describes as potentially requiring up to five years to fully restore [10]. Qatar's LNG exports are the country's primary revenue source, and the 17% capacity reduction translates to billions of dollars in lost annual export income [8].

Kuwait's Mina Al Ahmadi refinery, with its 346,000-barrel-per-day capacity, has been struck repeatedly [7]. Kuwait International Airport was also hit by Iranian drone fire on April 1, causing fires at fuel storage tanks [14].

Saudi Arabia has managed some disruptions better due to existing maintenance capacity — Aramco's Ras Tanura facility demonstrated a rapid restart [10] — but Shaybah and Yanbu facilities sustained damage [9].

The UAE has seen the highest number of strikes among Gulf states in the first weeks of the conflict, with attacks on Abu Dhabi's airport, the Shah gas field, Fujairah storage hubs, and the 1.5-million-barrel-per-day Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline [9][14].

More than 40 countries, excluding the US and Israel, held virtual talks on April 3 about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though no agreements were reached [3]. French President Emmanuel Macron called the use of military force to reopen the strait "unrealistic" [3].

What Comes Next

Trump has set an implicit deadline: he threatened to strike Iran's power and desalination plants "by next week" if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz [4]. On social media, he wrote: "With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE" [3].

On the same day, an American F-15 fighter jet went down over Iran — the first confirmed loss of a US combat aircraft in the conflict [3][4]. Both the US and Iran were searching for the crew as of Friday evening. Iranian state television claimed the jet was shot down; US officials had not confirmed the cause [3].

Oil executives and analysts have warned that the Strait of Hormuz needs to reopen by mid-April or supply disruptions will worsen significantly as strategic reserves deplete [5]. The IEA's 400-million-barrel release was described by the agency itself as a "stop-gap measure" [22]. If Hormuz remains closed and no ceasefire materializes, the global economy faces the prospect of sustained triple-digit oil prices and potential rationing in countries with limited reserve buffers — a scenario without precedent since the 1970s.