The Man Who Held Iran Together: Israel's Killing of Ali Larijani and the Decapitation of a War Government

On the morning of March 17, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz delivered a terse announcement: overnight airstrikes in the heart of Tehran had killed Ali Larijani, the 67-year-old secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, the 62-year-old commander of the Basij paramilitary forces [1]. If confirmed, the strikes represent the most devastating blow to Iran's wartime leadership since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 — and the clearest signal yet that Israel's strategy in this war extends well beyond degrading military infrastructure to systematically dismantling the Iranian state's capacity to govern.

Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the deaths. Hours after Israel's announcement, Iranian state media published a handwritten note attributed to Larijani commemorating 84 Iranian sailors killed in a recent U.S. attack on their naval vessel — though it remained unclear whether the note was intended as proof of life or had been written before the strike [2].

Who Was Ali Larijani?

To understand what Iran may have lost, it is necessary to understand who Larijani was — not merely his title, but his singular position within the Islamic Republic's labyrinthine power structure.

Born in 1958 in Najaf, Iraq, to a family Time magazine once called "the Kennedys of Iran," Larijani straddled the republic's competing factions in a way almost no other figure could [3]. His father was a grand ayatollah. His wife was the daughter of Morteza Motahhari, a close adviser to revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini. His brothers occupied senior positions in the judiciary and the Assembly of Experts. Yet Larijani himself earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics and computer science from Sharif University of Technology and a doctorate in Western philosophy, writing his thesis on Immanuel Kant [3].

This duality — clerical pedigree married to technocratic competence — defined his career. He served as culture minister under President Rafsanjani, ran Iran's state broadcasting apparatus for a decade, led nuclear negotiations with European powers from 2005 to 2007, and served three consecutive terms as speaker of parliament from 2008 to 2020 [4]. In that role, he was instrumental in securing parliamentary approval for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark nuclear deal with world powers — a pragmatist achievement that earned him enemies among hardliners [4].

Reappointed as Supreme National Security Council secretary in August 2025 by President Masoud Pezeshkian, Larijani was, by the time the war began, arguably the most experienced and connected security official in Iran [5].

The De Facto Leader

When U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Khamenei on February 28, they decapitated a system designed around a single supreme authority. The immediate aftermath was chaos: Iran's chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi, defense minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, IRGC commander-in-chief Mohammad Pakpour, and security council secretary Ali Shamkhani were all confirmed dead in the opening salvo [6]. A three-person transitional council — President Pezeshkian, Supreme Court Chief Justice Mohseni-Ejei, and a Guardian Council jurist — assumed nominal leadership [7].

But according to Al-Monitor and multiple analysts, it was Larijani who actually held the state together. "Larijani has been the central player in maintaining the continuity of the Iranian government for several months," one analyst noted [8]. While the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — the late ayatollah's son, selected on March 8 — remained out of public view, Larijani was documented walking with crowds at pro-government rallies in Tehran, appearing on state television to declare that Iran would deliver an "unforgettable lesson" to its enemies, and coordinating defense strategy from the Supreme National Security Council [3][8].

The Israeli military's own assessment reflected this reality. In announcing the strike, the IDF stated that after Khamenei's death, Larijani "functioned as the de facto leader of the Iranian regime" [1].

The Basij Commander

Gholamreza Soleimani's death, though less symbolically dramatic, carries its own strategic weight. As commander of the Basij for six years, the 62-year-old Iran-Iraq War veteran controlled the Islamic Republic's most important tool of internal control — a vast paramilitary network embedded in every Iranian city, university, and neighborhood [9]. The Basij enforces domestic order, mobilizes civilian support for the regime, and has been the primary instrument of crackdowns on protests, including the violent suppression of the 2022-2023 Woman, Life, Freedom movement.

Soleimani — no relation to the late Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, killed by the U.S. in 2020 — was sanctioned by the United States, the European Union, and other countries for his role in suppressing dissent [9]. His elimination removes the operational commander responsible for maintaining regime control on the streets at a time when the Iranian population is enduring daily airstrikes.

A Pattern of Decapitation

The Larijani and Soleimani killings bring the total number of senior Iranian officials killed since February 28 to approximately 40, according to compiled reports [7]. The list reads like a directory of Iran's security establishment:

• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his daughter, son-in-law, and grandson (Feb. 28)
• Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Defence Council (Feb. 28)
• Aziz Nasirzadeh, defense minister (Feb. 28)
• Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of staff of the armed forces (March 1)
• Mohammad Pakpour, IRGC commander-in-chief (March 1)
• Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of Iran's nuclear weapons research organization SPND (Feb. 28)
• Ali Larijani, Supreme National Security Council secretary (March 17, claimed)
• Gholamreza Soleimani, Basij commander (March 17, claimed) [6][7]

Israeli Defense Minister Katz framed the latest operations as part of a campaign to "eliminate the regime's main figures" [1]. The strategy bears unmistakable parallels to Israel's systematic targeting of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership in 2024-2025 — but applied at the scale of an entire nation-state.

Source: FRED / U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

The Diplomatic Void

Larijani's potential death is particularly consequential because he was widely regarded — despite his recent hawkish rhetoric — as the Iranian official most capable of eventually negotiating an end to the conflict. His history with the JCPOA, his relationships across Iran's factional spectrum, and his pragmatist reputation made him a figure that intermediaries, including Oman and Egypt, could conceivably engage [5].

That channel, already fraying, may now be severed entirely. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on March 15 that Iran "never asked for a ceasefire" and sees "no reason" to talk to the United States [10]. President Trump, for his part, has rejected all international mediation efforts, telling reporters he has "no intention to negotiate at this time" [11]. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has rejected de-escalation proposals conveyed by intermediaries, demanding that Israel and the United States first be "brought to their knees" [12].

The killing of Larijani — if confirmed — removes the last senior Iranian figure with both the authority and the track record to broker a deal, at a moment when no deal appears possible anyway.

Cracks in Washington

The March 17 strikes landed against a backdrop of growing dissent within the Trump administration itself. Hours before the Larijani announcement, Joe Kent — director of the National Counterterrorism Center and Trump's principal counterterrorism adviser — posted his resignation letter on social media [13].

"I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran," Kent wrote. He argued that Iran "posed no imminent threat to our nation" and described what he characterized as a "misinformation campaign" driven by Israeli officials that "undermined" Trump's "America First platform and sowed pro-war sentiments" [13].

Trump dismissed Kent as "weak on security," insisting that "Iran was a tremendous threat" [14]. But Kent's resignation — the first by a senior administration official over the conflict — gave voice to a concern that has been building within national security circles: that the war's escalatory logic has outrun any coherent strategic objective.

Source: GDELT Project

Data as of Mar 17, 2026CSV

The Oil Price Reality

The war's economic consequences continue to compound. WTI crude oil, which traded near $67 per barrel on February 27 — the day before the war began — surged to $94.65 by March 9, briefly spiking above $100 intraday before a volatile retreat [15]. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, remains effectively closed. The IEA has released a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and G7 finance ministers have agreed to hold additional stockpiles in reserve [16].

The economic pressure extends far beyond energy. Global commodity markets for fertilizer, helium, aluminum, and liquefied natural gas have all been disrupted. Airlines have cancelled over 50,000 flights. The conflict has displaced more than 4 million people across the Middle East [17].

What Comes Next

Eighteen days into Operation Epic Fury, the war has killed over 2,300 people across the region — including more than 1,200 Iranian civilians and 13 American service members — and cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $16.5 billion [17]. Israel and Hezbollah are fighting in Lebanon, where more than 800 people have died and 820,000 have been displaced. Iran has struck Dubai International Airport and attacked commercial shipping. Gulf states are under drone attack [18].

The elimination of Larijani, if confirmed, removes from the battlefield not a general or a weapons system, but something potentially more important: an institutional memory. He was the man who knew how the Islamic Republic's gears meshed, who had relationships across every faction, who had negotiated with the West before and could theoretically do so again. In a system already reeling from the loss of its supreme leader and dozens of senior officials, his absence creates not just a leadership vacuum but a governance crisis.

The question now is whether that crisis serves any strategic purpose — whether degrading Iran's ability to function as a state brings the conflict closer to resolution, or simply ensures that when the shooting eventually stops, there will be no one left on the Iranian side with the authority or legitimacy to agree to terms.

As one former U.S. diplomat told NPR: "You can't negotiate with a government you've destroyed" [14].