Revision History

India's total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman — below the replacement level of 2.1 — and senior government advisors now project the population will stabilize at 1.55 billion in the early 2050s, a full decade earlier and 170 million below UN forecasts. The speed of fertility decline, combined with vast state-level disparities and a 15-year census data gap, raises urgent questions about whether India can convert its remaining demographic dividend into economic growth before an aging population overwhelms its threadbare pension system.