The 'Donald Dash': America Records Its First Net Emigration Since the Great Depression

For the first time in 90 years, more people left the United States than entered it. The implications — for the economy, the labor market, and the country's identity as a nation of immigrants — are only beginning to come into focus.

The Numbers Behind the Reversal

The U.S. Census Bureau confirmed in January 2026 that net international migration plunged from a peak of 2.7 million in the year ending July 2024 to just 1.3 million in the year ending July 2025 [1]. But that figure, which still shows positive net migration, captures only part of the story. Brookings Institution economists Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson calculated that by calendar year 2025, the United States experienced net negative migration of roughly 150,000 people — the first time the country has lost more residents than it gained since the depths of the Great Depression in 1935 [2].

The trajectory is worsening. Brookings projects that 2026 net migration could range from negative 925,000 to positive 185,000, with the central estimate remaining "very low or negative" [2]. The Congressional Budget Office has slashed its immigration projections by 1.6 million people for 2025 and 1.0 million for 2026 compared to its January 2025 estimates [3].

Source: Census Bureau / Brookings Institution

Data as of Jan 27, 2026CSV

Two Forces, One Result

The net emigration milestone is the product of two simultaneous and historically unusual forces: a dramatic reduction in people coming to the United States, and an unprecedented increase in Americans leaving it.

The Immigration Collapse

On the inflow side, the Trump administration's immigration enforcement apparatus has produced the lowest border encounter numbers in more than 50 years. From February through November 2025, encounters with migrants crossing the Southwest border without authorization averaged just over 7,000 monthly — compared to 88,000 monthly over the same period the prior year [4]. That represents a decline of more than 90%.

The policy toolkit has been sweeping. The administration ended the CBP One app that allowed migrants to schedule asylum screenings, declared a migrant "invasion" to halt asylum access, terminated the humanitarian parole program for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans, and reinstated Migrant Protection Protocols requiring asylum seekers to wait outside the country [5]. Refugee admissions collapsed from an average of 9,000 monthly in early 2025 to a total of just 1,226 for the remainder of the year [5].

The enforcement side has been equally aggressive: ICE arrests surged to roughly 1,200 per day, and between January 20 and December 10, 2025, more than 595,000 noncitizens were arrested. The government tracked between 1.6 and 1.9 million "voluntary self-departures" [2][5].

Source: Brookings Institution [2]

The American Exodus

But the other side of the ledger — Americans leaving — has received less policy attention and more cultural fascination. A Wall Street Journal analysis of residence permits, foreign home purchases, student enrollments, and other metrics from more than 50 countries found that Americans are "voting with their feet to an unprecedented degree" [6]. Data from just 15 countries with full or partial 2025 figures showed at least 180,000 American citizens relocated abroad — a number that is almost certainly far higher when all countries report [6].

The phenomenon has been colorfully dubbed the "Donald Dash" by international media [7], though observers note it has been building for years, accelerated by remote work, rising U.S. living costs, and a growing appetite for foreign lifestyles.

In Portugal, the number of American residents has surged more than 500% since the COVID pandemic, with a 36% spike in 2024 alone [6]. In Spain, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic, American populations have roughly doubled over the past decade. In Ireland, twice as many Americans moved there in 2025 compared to 2024 [6].

Why They're Leaving

Surveys and interviews paint a multifaceted picture. According to data compiled by immigration researchers, 49% of Americans who relocated abroad cite a lower cost of living as a primary motivator, while 48% point to dissatisfaction with political leadership [8].

"You don't face the prospect of your 5-year-old going into a kindergarten and doing an active shooter drill," Chris Ford, a 41-year-old Dallas-based remote worker now living in Berlin, told the Mercury News [9].

Safety, healthcare access, and quality of life rank consistently among the top reasons. In many European countries, high-quality medical care is available at a fraction of U.S. costs — often as part of a public health system that charges nothing at the point of service [8]. The remote work revolution has eliminated the geographic tether that once kept American workers stationary, allowing telecommuters and retirees to find that their U.S.-denominated incomes stretch dramatically further in Lisbon, Prague, or Mexico City.

Citizenship renunciations have also climbed. Nearly 5,000 Americans renounced citizenship in 2025 — the highest figure since the 2020 record of 6,705 — with the State Department reporting a month-long backlog of appointment requests [10]. Renunciation requests jumped 48% in 2024 and appear to have risen further in 2025 [10].

Source: Brookings Institution

Data as of Jan 15, 2026CSV

The Economic Reckoning

The macroeconomic implications are sobering. Brookings estimates that reduced migration will shave 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points off GDP growth in 2025, with an additional 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point drag in 2026 [2]. Consumer spending is projected to decline by $40 to $60 billion in 2025 and a further $10 to $40 billion in 2026 as the population shrinks [2].

The labor market impact may be the most consequential. Since 2012, immigration has been the sole source of working-age population growth in the United States, pushing the share of foreign-born workers to 19.2% of the workforce in 2024, up from under 12% in 1995 [11]. Brookings calculates that the "breakeven" rate of monthly job creation needed to maintain stable unemployment fell to just 20,000 to 50,000 in the second half of 2025 — and could turn negative in 2026, meaning the economy would need to lose jobs simply to avoid pushing unemployment higher [2].

That scenario is already materializing. The unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in February 2026, while nonfarm payrolls have essentially flatlined, adding an average of just 14,500 jobs per month in the latter part of 2025 [12].

The agricultural sector faces particular vulnerability: 68% of U.S. farm laborers are foreign-born, and the Department of Labor warned in October 2025 that enforcement policies risk creating severe labor shortages [11]. Construction, hospitality, and healthcare — all heavily dependent on immigrant labor — face similar pressures.

Source: FRED / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data as of Mar 7, 2026CSV

A Demographic Turning Point

The CBO's January 2026 demographic outlook paints a stark long-term picture. The U.S. population is projected to grow from 349 million in 2026 to just 364 million by 2056 — an average growth rate that will slow from 0.3% annually in the next decade to 0.1% from 2037 onward [3]. Starting in 2030, annual deaths are projected to exceed annual births, making net immigration the sole source of population growth [3].

That makes the current immigration collapse particularly consequential. If net migration remains negative or near-zero for an extended period, the United States could join Japan, South Korea, and several European nations in an era of outright population decline — a development that would have profound implications for housing markets, tax revenues, Social Security solvency, and economic dynamism.

The View From Abroad

The countries receiving American emigres are adapting. Spain's government spokeswoman Elma Saiz Delgado offered a characteristically Mediterranean take: "Many Americans come, and there are many love stories. After four glasses of wine, they stay" [6].

But the trend extends well beyond European romance. Albania has become an unexpected destination, offering tax-free living arrangements. Mexico continues to attract retirees and remote workers drawn by proximity and affordability. The United Kingdom and Ireland have seen surges in Americans applying for citizenship based on ancestral connections [6].

Digital nomad visa programs, which barely existed before the pandemic, have proliferated across dozens of countries — from Portugal's D7 visa to Croatia's temporary stay permit — creating a legal infrastructure that makes American emigration easier than at any point in history [8].

The Political Paradox

The net emigration milestone presents a political paradox for the Trump administration. The immigration crackdown is among its most popular domestic policies, with the dramatic reduction in border crossings cited as evidence of restored sovereignty. But the simultaneous exodus of American citizens — disproportionately college-educated professionals and retirees with portable wealth — threatens to undermine the economic foundations that fund the government's priorities.

Gallup polling has found that one in five Americans say they would leave the country if they could [6]. That figure, once dismissed as aspirational venting, now carries more weight as logistical barriers to emigration continue to fall.

The Brookings economists frame the challenge bluntly: without immigration, America's workforce is already shrinking [2]. The question facing policymakers is whether a nation that has defined itself by its ability to attract people from around the world can sustain itself economically and demographically when, for the first time in nine decades, the flow has reversed.