The Home Front: How the War in Iran Is Fueling a Crisis of Violence Inside the United States

Two weeks after the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict half a world away is generating violent aftershocks on American soil. Ideologically motivated attacks have struck in Virginia, Michigan, and New York. Gas prices have spiked more than 17 percent. And military families—already bearing the disproportionate burden of two decades of continuous warfare—face a convergence of stressors that researchers have long linked to intimate partner violence.

The war abroad is becoming a war at home.

A Week of Violence on American Soil

In the two weeks since the first U.S. cruise missiles struck Iranian military installations and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, at least three significant acts of ideologically motivated violence have occurred inside the United States [1].

In Norfolk, Virginia, a shooter identified as Mohamed Jalloh, described by authorities as an Islamic State sympathizer, killed one person and wounded two others on Old Dominion University's campus before being killed himself. In Dearborn, Michigan, a naturalized citizen from Lebanon rammed his vehicle into a synagogue, where he was shot at by security guards before fatally shooting himself. In New York City, two men who federal authorities say were inspired by the Islamic State brought functioning homemade bombs to a far-right protest outside Gracie Mansion [1][2].

An additional incident in Austin, Texas, involved a bar shooting by a suspect wearing "Property of Allah" apparel and an Iranian flag shirt [3].

The Department of Homeland Security has warned that "the likelihood of violent extremists in the Homeland independently mobilizing to violence in response to the conflict would likely increase if Iranian leadership issued a religious ruling calling for retaliatory violence against targets in the Homeland" [4]. That scenario has already materialized: Iranian clerics issued two fatwas calling on Muslims worldwide to avenge Khamenei's death [3].

A Counterterrorism System Under Strain

These threats are emerging against a backdrop of diminished federal capacity. The FBI and Justice Department have experienced widespread departures of experienced national security professionals, straining the counterterrorism infrastructure at a moment when it is most needed [1][2].

Iran has been designated a state sponsor of terrorism since 1984 and has spent more than $16 billion funding terrorist organizations worldwide [3]. Its retaliatory strategy has historically relied on asymmetric tactics—proxy violence, cyber operations, symbolic targeting, and incentivizing lone-actor attacks rather than direct military confrontation [3][4].

Local law enforcement agencies have been urged to review security at soft targets including houses of worship, entertainment venues, and transportation hubs, while strengthening intelligence sharing through regional fusion centers and Joint Terrorism Task Forces [3].

The Economic Pressure Cooker

Beyond the immediate security threats, the war is inflicting economic pain that reverberates through American households—the kind of financial stress that researchers consistently identify as a driver of domestic violence.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Data as of Mar 9, 2026CSV

In just two weeks, the average price of gasoline in the United States jumped from $2.98 to $3.58 per gallon, a rise of approximately 20 percent [5][6]. In California, prices have surged past $5 per gallon, with some San Francisco stations posting prices above $6.50 [7]. U.S. crude oil prices have climbed roughly 42 percent from pre-war levels, from approximately $67 per barrel to above $94 [6][8].

The ripple effects extend far beyond the gas pump. Fertilizer prices have increased 35 percent since the strikes began, threatening to raise grocery costs substantially. Jet fuel prices have risen approximately 58 percent. Mortgage rates are climbing amid renewed inflation fears. The war's first week alone cost U.S. taxpayers more than $11 billion in direct military expenditures [5].

"The war is putting upward pressure on prices for gasoline, electricity, and groceries through higher transportation, packaging and fertilizer costs," economist Wayne Winegarden of the Pacific Research Institute told TIME, warning this "will worsen affordability for families already struggling with the high cost of living" [5].

Economists at JPMorgan project that inflation could accelerate from 2.4 percent in January to 3 percent or higher in coming months [8]. Some analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could pull the United States into a recession [8].

The Established Link: Economic Stress and Domestic Violence

The connection between economic distress and domestic violence is well-documented. Research published by the National Resource Center on Domestic Violence found that unemployment, financial stress, and social isolation "can increase tension and strain within relationships, potentially leading to abusive dynamics" [9].

The COVID-19 pandemic provided a devastating natural experiment. After stay-at-home orders took effect in 2020, domestic violence incidents in the United States increased by 8.1 percent [10]. Some metropolitan areas saw domestic violence service calls increase by 20 to 30 percent, with certain regions reporting spikes as high as 62 percent [11]. The National Domestic Violence Hotline received more than 74,000 contacts in a single month—the highest monthly volume in its 25-year history [12].

The pandemic demonstrated that when economic stress, uncertainty, and social disruption converge, violence in the home escalates. The current war is producing an eerily similar combination of pressures: soaring household costs, geopolitical anxiety, and for military families, the additional burden of deployment or the threat of it.

Twenty Years of War and a Broken System

The Iran conflict arrives on top of a military domestic violence crisis that has been compounding for more than two decades.

A two-year CBS News investigation found that roughly 100,000 incidents of domestic abuse were reported to the military since 2015 [13]. The investigation revealed that incidents of spousal abuse in the military were "more than twice that of the national population," according to 2019 data cited by the nonprofit Blue Star Families [13]. In 2022, there were 15,479 reports of military domestic abuse to the Family Advocacy Program—up from 14,299 in 2021, an increase of more than 8 percent in a single year [14].

The research consistently demonstrates that deployment and combat exposure amplify the risk. A study of 2,583 veterans found that combat exposure more than quadrupled the risk of domestic violence [15]. Among Vietnam-era veterans, 33 percent of those with PTSD reported intimate partner violence in the past year, compared to 13.5 percent without PTSD. Approximately 91 percent of combat veterans with PTSD reported psychological aggression toward an intimate partner [16].

The severity of spousal aggression has been shown to increase with length of deployment [15]. Research conducted during Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom documented increased rates of marital conflict, domestic violence, and child maltreatment among military families [17].

Source: FRED / Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data as of Mar 11, 2026CSV

Structural Barriers to Accountability

Military culture itself can compound the problem. As The War Horse reported in its investigation, military life "can both add to the risk of domestic violence and make victims more hesitant to report it" because service members "sleep, eat, and deploy with their coworkers, raising the stakes for those thinking about reporting domestic abuse" [15].

The community that active-duty victims are supposed to turn to for support is frequently the same community that supports their abuser. Approximately 50 percent of service members own firearms, which research shows heightens domestic violence risk [15].

A Defense Department Inspector General report found systemic failures in the military's response to domestic violence: out of 219 incidents reviewed, 28 percent of crime scenes were not processed correctly, 68 percent did not include thorough interviews, and 22 percent of incidents were never reported to the Family Advocacy Program [15].

The military has not kept comprehensive data on domestic violence as legally required since 1999, making it impossible to assess the full scope of the problem [13].

The Hate Crime Dimension

The war is also driving a different kind of violence at home—hate crimes targeting communities associated, rightly or wrongly, with the conflict.

Opposing groups have rallied in Washington, D.C., with antiwar protesters confronting supporters of the military action in front of the White House [18]. The Combat Antisemitism Movement has documented a surge in antisemitic incidents connected to pro-Iran protests [19]. The synagogue attack in Michigan underscores how geopolitical conflict translates into sectarian violence on American streets.

The DHS has noted that "multiple recent Homeland terrorist attacks have been motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could contribute to U.S.-based individuals plotting additional attacks" [4].

Meanwhile, Iranian-Americans and the broader Middle Eastern diaspora face heightened scrutiny and potential backlash—a pattern that repeated after the September 11 attacks, the Iraq War, and the rise of ISIS [20].

A Convergence of Crises

What distinguishes the current moment is the convergence of multiple violence-producing pressures.

For military families, the stressors are acute: potential or actual deployment, the psychological toll of combat exposure, the prospect of injury or death, and a support system that decades of investigation have shown to be inadequate. For civilian families, the economic shock of rapidly rising gas, food, and energy prices arrives atop years of elevated costs that have already strained household budgets to their limits.

Layered on top of both is the pervasive anxiety of a nation at war—the constant news cycle of strikes and counterstrikes, the specter of domestic terrorism, and the polarizing political environment that surrounds any major military engagement.

Research from the National Center for PTSD at the VA has documented that rates of intimate partner violence among military populations may exceed those of civilian populations [16]. But the current crisis is not confined to military households. The economic and psychological reverberations of war touch every American family paying more at the pump, more at the grocery store, and more on their utility bills—while watching a conflict unfold whose end point remains unclear.

What Comes Next

The first week of the Iran war cost American taxpayers $11.3 billion [5]. More than 250 U.S. organizations have called on Congress to halt funding for the conflict, arguing that resources are being diverted from domestic needs [21]. As the conflict enters its third week with no exit strategy articulated by the administration, the domestic toll—measured in dollars, in anxiety, and increasingly in acts of violence—shows no sign of abating.

For those experiencing domestic violence, the National Domestic Violence Hotline is available at 1-800-799-7233 or by texting START to 88788. The Veterans Crisis Line can be reached at 988, then pressing 1.