'A Colossal Historic Disaster': Inside the Escalating Political War Over Tinubu's Nigeria

Prince Adewole Adebayo, the Social Democratic Party's 2023 presidential candidate, has emerged as one of the most vocal critics of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration, branding it a failure across every measurable metric — from economic stewardship to democratic governance. His broadside, calling Tinubu's leadership "the most critical error plaguing Nigeria today," encapsulates a growing chorus of opposition voices warning that Africa's most populous nation is sliding toward authoritarianism and economic ruin under its current president [1][2].

But Adebayo's criticisms are not merely partisan theatre. They are backed by a troubling convergence of data: inflation that has doubled since Tinubu took office, a poverty rate projected to engulf 62 percent of the population by 2026, over 10,000 people killed by armed groups in two years, 141 documented attacks on press freedom, and an Electoral Act amendment that critics say could rig the next election before it begins [3][4][5][6].

This is the story of a presidency under siege — from within its own country.

The Critic: Who Is Prince Adewole Adebayo?

Prince Adewole Adebayo is not a fringe figure. A lawyer, businessman, and the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 2023 general election, he has positioned himself as a persistent thorn in the side of the Tinubu administration. Unlike many Nigerian opposition figures who moderate their language in hopes of future political accommodation, Adebayo has been unsparing [1][7].

In a sweeping review of 2025, Adebayo declared that Tinubu's year was "marked by abuse of power, constitutional violations, and deepening hardship for Nigerians." He dismissed government claims of economic improvement as statistical fiction, noting: "There is no part of Nigeria where transportation costs have reduced. There is no part where rent has come down. Cement, building materials, airfare, school fees — nothing is cheaper" [3].

He has described Tinubu as a "colossal historic disaster" and declared himself ready to take over governance "even today," signaling his intent to challenge Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election [2]. More recently, in March 2026, Adebayo accused Tinubu of "weakening electoral transparency" by signing an amended Electoral Act that makes electronic transmission of election results discretionary rather than mandatory [6][8].

His criticism extends to the opposition itself. Adebayo has rejected coalition talks with former Kaduna state governor Nasir El-Rufai and has distanced the SDP from the broader opposition coalition being assembled under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) banner, insisting that "only a coalition of the Nigerian people can defeat the APC, not merely a coalition of political actors" [9][10].

The Economic Catastrophe

The numbers paint a grim picture. When President Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, his first major acts were the removal of Nigeria's decades-old fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira on the foreign exchange market. These were reforms long urged by international financial institutions. The execution, however, has been devastating for ordinary Nigerians [11][12].

Source: World Bank Open Data

Data as of Feb 24, 2026CSV

Fuel prices surged from 185 naira per liter to over 1,025 naira per liter. The naira, which traded at roughly 460 to the dollar before the float, plummeted to approximately 1,700 to the dollar. Annual inflation, already elevated when Tinubu took office, skyrocketed to 33.2 percent by 2024, with food inflation exceeding 40 percent [11][12].

The human toll of these macroeconomic shifts has been staggering. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Nigeria's poverty rate may reach 62 percent by 2026, with an estimated 141 million Nigerians living in poverty [4]. The World Bank has noted that an additional 13 million people were projected to fall below the national poverty line in 2025 alone [13]. The absolute number of Nigerians in poverty has grown from approximately 81 million in 2019 to roughly 139 million in 2025 — nearly tripling in six years [4].

Source: World Bank Open Data

Data as of Feb 24, 2026CSV

The government's defence relies on headline GDP growth — the economy expanded by 4.06 percent in 2024, up from 3.33 percent in 2023 [14]. But this figure is deeply misleading in a country where population growth of approximately 2.4 percent annually means per capita gains are negligible. More telling is the collapse in GDP per capita measured in US dollars: from $2,139 in 2023 to just $1,084 in 2024 — a 49 percent plunge driven largely by the naira's devaluation [14]. In dollar terms, the average Nigerian is poorer today than at any point in the last decade.

President Tinubu has defended the reforms. In February 2026, he declared that "Nigeria is better off now" and credited the fuel subsidy removal with saving the country over one trillion naira in just two months [15]. But polling tells a different story: an Afrobarometer survey found that 85 percent of Nigerians disapprove of the fuel subsidy removal, and a large majority say the country is headed in the wrong direction [16].

Security: A Nation Under Siege

Nigeria's security crisis has deepened under Tinubu's watch, undermining his campaign promises of stability. At least 2,266 people were killed by bandits or insurgents during just the first half of 2025 — surpassing the total for all of 2024 [17]. By mid-year 2025, Nigeria had recorded 5,768 conflict-related deaths, accounting for 44.5 percent of all insecurity-related fatalities across West Africa [17][18].

The violence is multi-front and relentless. Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have escalated their campaigns in the northeast. Banditry continues to ravage the northwest. Inter-communal violence surged in Plateau and Benue states, where over 300 people were killed between April and June 2025 alone. In a single overnight attack on a Benue village, approximately 150 residents were killed [17].

Mass abductions have become routine. Since 2014, more than 1,600 children have been abducted, and in 2024 alone, at least 580 civilians — primarily women and girls — were kidnapped. By mid-2025, 306 mass abduction incidents had already been recorded [17]. The United Nations Population Fund has estimated that more than 7.8 million Nigerians, roughly 80 percent of them women and children, require urgent humanitarian assistance [19].

Amnesty International has stated that more than 10,000 people have been killed by jihadist groups and criminal gangs in north and central Nigeria in the two years since Tinubu took office [20]. Adebayo has specifically criticised Tinubu's security approach, slamming the deployment of military forces to Kwara state after a major attack and questioning the strategic competence of the administration's security leadership [21].

Democracy in Retreat

Perhaps the most structurally consequential dimension of the Tinubu era is the erosion of democratic institutions. Multiple independent assessments paint an alarming picture.

Press Freedom Under Attack

A report covering the first two years of the Tinubu administration documented 141 incidents of harassment, detention, and violence against journalists and citizens exercising their right to free expression [5]. Nigerian police were responsible for 61 of those incidents — 43 percent of all documented violations. Section 24 of the Cybercrimes Act of 2015 has been weaponized against journalists and social media users who post critical commentary [5][22].

The contradiction between Tinubu's stated commitments and his administration's actions is stark. While Tinubu has publicly vowed to "defend free speech" and declared that "criticism is vital for democracy," his government has charged peaceful protesters — including minors — with treason, an offence carrying the death penalty [22]. The pattern became so egregious that diplomatic missions from the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, and Finland issued an unprecedented joint statement in June 2025 criticising the government's abuse of the Cybercrimes Act [22].

Freedom House's 2025 report on Nigeria classified the country as "Partly Free," reflecting ongoing concerns about political rights and civil liberties under the current administration [23].

The Electoral Act Controversy

The most recent flashpoint is the 2026 Electoral Act amendment. The revised law, signed by President Tinubu on February 18, 2026, permits electronic transmission of election results from polling units but makes it discretionary rather than mandatory [24][25]. Where network failures occur, manually signed paper forms serve as the authoritative basis for collation — a provision that critics say opens a wide door for manipulation [25].

The Senate initially rejected electronic transmission entirely, sparking nationwide protests. The final compromise pleased almost no one. Civil society organisations including Yiaga Africa and the Kukah Centre urged lawmakers to mandate electronic transmission regardless of network challenges [26]. Opposition parties condemned the amendment as a deliberate effort to enable vote rigging ahead of the 2027 elections [6][8].

Adebayo described the move as "a setback for transparency and democratic integrity," accusing the federal government of "prioritising loopholes over transparency" [6]. Meanwhile, broader opposition leaders have accused the Tinubu administration of using anti-graft institutions like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to intimidate political rivals and force opposition governors into the ruling APC [27]. Civil society groups and analysts have warned that Nigeria risks sliding toward a one-party state [27].

The Government's Response

The Tinubu administration rejects the characterisation of failure. The presidency has dismissed opposition criticism of the Electoral Act as politically motivated, insisting the amendment strengthens Nigeria's democratic framework [28]. On the economy, government officials point to rising GDP growth, improved foreign exchange stability, and fiscal savings from subsidy removal as evidence that reforms are working [15].

A government minister stated that Tinubu "targets a secure, prosperous Nigeria in 2026," citing investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and security as part of a comprehensive reform agenda [29]. The administration also notes that inflation, while high, is expected to moderate to around 12.94 percent by end of 2026, reflecting the Central Bank's tight monetary policy [30].

But the gap between macroeconomic indicators and household reality remains the administration's central vulnerability. As the World Bank noted in its October 2025 Nigeria Development Update, improvements in growth and revenue mobilisation "have yet to significantly improve living standards" [13].

The 2027 Question

All of this unfolds against the backdrop of the 2027 presidential election, which is shaping up to be the most consequential electoral contest in Nigeria's recent history. Adebayo has declared his intention to run again under the SDP banner, while a broader opposition coalition involving Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and El-Rufai has coalesced around the African Democratic Congress platform [9][10].

Whether this fragmented opposition can mount a credible challenge to the APC's formidable incumbency machinery — especially under an Electoral Act that critics say tilts the playing field — remains the defining question of Nigerian politics. Adebayo insists it is "not difficult to defeat Tinubu," but acknowledges the opposition must present "clear alternatives to the people" rather than simply cataloguing the government's failures [2][10].

What is not in dispute is the scale of the challenge facing Nigeria. With nearly 141 million of its citizens in poverty, thousands dying from insurgent violence each year, democratic institutions under strain, and an economy where headline growth masks collapsing living standards, the stakes of the next election extend far beyond partisan politics. They concern whether Africa's largest democracy can reverse what Adebayo calls a trajectory of "unprecedented institutional collapse" — or whether the damage will prove irreversible [3][7].