Ten California Mayors Draw a Line Against Newsom's Plan to Tap Local Tax Revenue for High-Speed Rail

Eighteen years after California voters approved a $9.95 billion bond to build a bullet train, no track has been laid, the cost estimate has ballooned to $126 billion, and the state is now looking to raid city budgets to keep the project alive. Ten mayors say they will fight it in court.

The Proposal That Sparked the Revolt

In its draft 2026 business plan, the California High-Speed Rail Authority introduced a financing concept that would allow the state to capture future growth in property tax and sales tax revenue from areas within a half-mile radius of planned high-speed rail stations [1][2]. The mechanism, modeled on tax increment financing (TIF) — a tool traditionally used by local governments for urban redevelopment — would redirect the increase in local tax revenue generated by station-area development to the rail authority rather than to city and county general funds [3].

The authority also requested regulatory powers including zoning and land-use permitting controls over land within that half-mile radius, a move that cities view as a direct intrusion into municipal governance [4].

In an April 23, 2026 letter to the authority's CEO, mayors from ten cities called the proposal "fiscally reckless, legally vulnerable, and fundamentally unfair," warning it "would weaken local governments, destabilize public services, and undermine constitutional protections that California voters have repeatedly affirmed" [1][5].

Who Is Opposing — and Who Is Quiet

The ten mayors who signed the letter represent cities spanning the full length of the proposed rail corridor, from the Central Valley to Southern California:

• Fresno — Mayor Jerry Dyer
• Bakersfield
• Merced
• Hanford
• Stockton
• Anaheim
• Burbank
• Lancaster
• Riverside
• Gilroy

The list includes both the largest Central Valley cities — where construction is already underway — and key Southern California terminus cities like Anaheim and Burbank [1][6]. The opposition crosses partisan lines: the signatories include both Democratic and Republican mayors, and cities ranging in size from Hanford (population ~58,000) to Fresno (population ~550,000) [5].

Notably absent from the letter are Los Angeles and San Francisco, the two endpoint cities whose political leadership has generally supported the project. San Jose, another planned station city, also did not sign [1].

Anaheim's city council went a step further, voting unanimously to oppose the tax increment financing proposal. Councilman Ryan Balius said: "We've put these developments in there to generate sales tax for our residents and if the state comes in here and starts to either take property and/or sales tax from us, then we have to make up that revenue somewhere else" [7].

What Cities Stand to Lose

The financial impact varies by city, but the geographic scope of the proposed tax capture zones is substantial. In Fresno, the half-mile station radius would encompass large portions of downtown and Chinatown — the core of the city's commercial tax base [3][5].

Fresno Mayor Dyer put the stakes bluntly: "I cannot afford to lose any tax dollars in the City of Fresno, especially when I just got through balancing a budget where we were $34.5 million in the red" [5].

The revenue streams at risk — property tax increment and sales tax growth — are the primary funding sources for police and fire departments, parks, affordable housing programs, infrastructure maintenance, and local transportation improvements [6][7]. Cities argue that diverting future tax growth would not simply freeze existing budgets but would prevent them from keeping pace with rising costs and growing populations.

Anaheim officials warned the proposal would "severely impact city coffers" by diverting future tax growth from the ARTIC station area and the surrounding OC Vibe entertainment district — developments the city specifically planned to generate local revenue [7].

No city finance director has published a formal dollar estimate of the total diversion, in part because the authority's proposal remains vague on key details, including the duration of the capture period and the percentage of increment that would be redirected. Several council members in Anaheim described the plan as "incredibly vague" [7].

A Project Whose Costs Keep Growing

The tax diversion proposal arrives against a backdrop of persistent cost escalation that has defined the project for nearly two decades.

Source: California High-Speed Rail Authority Business Plans

Data as of Apr 1, 2026CSV

When voters approved Proposition 1A in 2008, the full San Francisco-to-Los Angeles system was estimated at $33.5 billion, with completion promised by 2020 [8][9]. The 2026 draft business plan puts the Phase 1 cost at $126.2 billion, with service not expected until the 2030s for a Central Valley segment and approximately 2040 for the full line [4][10].

The more immediate segment — 171 miles of track between Merced and Bakersfield — carries an estimated cost of $34.76 billion [4]. Even this segment faces a funding gap.

Source: CA Legislative Analyst Office

Data as of Apr 27, 2026CSV

The California Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) identified approximately $39 billion in available funding against $34.8 billion in construction costs plus at least $4 billion in borrowing costs, yielding a roughly $2 billion shortfall just for the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment [4][10]. That gap widened after the Federal Railroad Administration terminated approximately $4 billion in federal grants in July 2025, concluding that the authority had failed to meet its obligations in nine areas [10][11].

The LAO also noted that published cost figures exclude a placeholder estimate of $2–$5 billion for the San Jose-to-Gilroy segment, with the LAO itself suggesting $3–$6 billion is more realistic [4].

The Legal Battleground

Cities and their advocates argue the proposal runs afoul of California's constitution on multiple grounds.

Proposition 1A protections: The League of California Cities, the California State Association of Counties, and other organizations contend the proposal violates constitutional protections that restrict the state's ability to redirect locally generated tax revenue. Local sales tax revenues are expressly protected for local governmental purposes, and the Legislature is prohibited from reallocating or transferring them [3][7].

No precedent: According to the League of California Cities, there is no precedent for a state agency capturing local tax increments to finance public transportation projects in California [3].

Land-use authority: The authority's request for zoning and permitting control within station areas would infringe on land-use authority reserved exclusively to cities and counties under California law [7].

Legislative bypass: Multiple organizations noted the authority appears to be pursuing the proposal through the state budget process rather than through standard legislation, raising separation-of-powers concerns [7].

State Senator Tony Strickland, a Republican from Huntington Beach, told rail officials during a late-April oversight hearing that he believes the proposal is unconstitutional [3]. The mayors' letter warned that "any mandatory diversion of those funds to a state agency could trigger extensive litigation" [1].

The High-Speed Rail Authority pushed back on the characterization, stating: "There is no finalized plan to capture local revenues" and that it is "continuing conversations with local jurisdictions and stakeholders about potential tools that could support station-area infrastructure and long-term system delivery" [1].

The Case For Local Revenue Capture

Advocates for the project argue that cities are benefiting from — and will continue to benefit from — the economic activity generated by high-speed rail construction and future station-area development, and that capturing a portion of that induced growth is a reasonable way to fund the infrastructure that created it.

The advocacy group Streets for All published a report in March 2026 arguing that Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts (EIFDs) — a voluntary version of the tax increment concept — could generate $15–$23 billion from a two-mile radius around the three planned Los Angeles County stations alone (Palmdale, Burbank, and Union Station). The report claimed this would be sufficient to fund all Southern California high-speed rail construction [12].

EIFDs, established under California law in 2014 as replacements for redevelopment agencies, allow local governments to voluntarily redirect property tax growth toward infrastructure. The key distinction is consent: EIFDs require participating agencies to opt in, while the authority's current proposal would impose the capture from above [12].

The rail authority projects that the full Phase 1 system would generate $1.2 billion to $3.2 billion in annual revenue from ticket sales and partnerships, against operating costs of $700 million to $1.4 billion [13]. Proponents argue that without some form of value capture, there is no realistic path to closing the funding gap beyond continued reliance on volatile cap-and-trade auction revenues — currently pledged at $1 billion annually through 2045 [4][8].

A Track Record of Missed Milestones

The authority's credibility on financial projections faces scrutiny given the project's history.

The original Proposition 1A promised nonstop San Francisco-to-Los Angeles service in under two hours and 40 minutes. The current "blended system" approach — in which high-speed trains share existing track at lower speeds on the San Francisco Peninsula and through the Los Angeles Basin — makes that travel time physically impossible to achieve [4][8].

Prop 1A also prohibits operating subsidies. Yet the authority's own 2026 business plan projects that the Merced-to-Bakersfield segment would recover only 35–49% of its operational costs through fares, generating $35.2–$45.7 million in annual farebox revenue against $155–$175.6 million in annual operating costs [4].

The LAO critiqued the 2026 business plan for lacking required transparency on costs [8]. The ridership projection of 23.6–30.6 million annual passengers for Phase 1 has not been independently validated against the project's actual construction timeline, and the Central Valley segment alone is projected at just 1.4–1.9 million riders per year [4][13].

As of April 2026, the authority reported 80 miles of contiguous guideway — concrete support structures — complete and ready for track-laying, representing 67% of the 119-mile Central Valley civil construction scope [13]. But a CapRadio investigation in March found the project could run out of money within two years before finishing even this first stretch [10].

Who Benefits From Continuation

The project employs approximately 1,700 workers daily in union construction jobs [8][13]. Construction trade unions have been among the project's most consistent political supporters, with labor leaders joining business groups to advocate for continued funding [14].

The authority launched a formal process in December 2025 to attract private investors and developers by summer 2026, signaling the involvement of additional financial stakeholders [14]. The $1 billion annual cap-and-trade revenue stream, paired with Senate Bill 545, represents a commitment that bondholders and contractors have built financial projections around [4][14].

Governor Newsom's own trajectory on the project has been notable. As lieutenant governor in 2014, he called the project "unlikely in our lifetime." By 2019, as governor, he questioned its viability publicly before reversing course to become a full-throated advocate [8]. A CalMatters commentary described the project as "a mess" likely to persist across multiple administrations [8].

CEO Ian Choudri took leave on February 18, 2026 — just before the business plan's release and ahead of a critical Assembly Transportation Committee oversight hearing on March 2 — leaving the authority without its top executive during a pivotal period [4].

What Happens Next

The mayors urged the state to pursue voter-approved bonds or dedicated state revenue sources rather than "attempting to divert local tax growth through a legally dubious scheme" [1][5]. The authority maintains that no final decision has been made and that conversations with local jurisdictions are ongoing [1].

But the lines are drawn. Ten cities representing hundreds of thousands of residents along the rail corridor have signaled they will litigate if the state moves forward with mandatory tax capture. The constitutional questions are unresolved. And the project's fundamental arithmetic — a $126 billion price tag against uncertain funding — ensures this fight over who pays will only intensify.

The dispute distills a question California has been unable to answer for 18 years: how much more are taxpayers willing to spend on a bullet train that keeps getting more expensive and further from completion?